UBS Predicts US Election in Advance: Four Election Results. What Chinese and American Stocks Fear Most is This
cy怒放的生命
发表于 2024-8-20 13:48:07
1240
0
0
Since US President Biden withdrew from the presidential race in July, the direction of this year's US election has also undergone dramatic changes.
With Vice President Kamala Harris suddenly becoming the Democratic candidate, Democrats have regained confidence in the prospects of the election. Moreover, multiple polls show that Harris' approval rating has now surpassed her opponent, Republican candidate Trump.
With less than 100 days left until the election, UBS has predicted in its report the four most likely outcomes of this year's election and their potential impact on the US stock market.
(1) Harris wins the election, but there is a split in Congress
UBS predicts that the most likely scenario is Harris taking over the White House, but Congress will be divided between the two parties - this possibility is 40%.
If such an election result were to occur, the overall impact on the US stock market would be minimal, as Harris may face restrictions from Congress when implementing his policies.
This result will only benefit companies focused on renewable energy and energy efficiency, while the stock prices of fossil fuel companies may also decline due to regulatory pressure.
In addition, UBS stated that strict regulation may also limit the financial industry, as Harris will maintain; quot; Oppose the ideology of large-scale financial services; quot;。 Since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March last year, the Biden administration has been calling for stronger regulation, and Harris is expected to continue this stance.
At the same time, with a split in Congress, it is expected to limit Harris' ability to push for major legislation such as industry and healthcare.
(2) Trump wins election, 'red wave' sweeps through US Congress
The second outcome speculated by UBS is that a "red wave" swept across the United States - the Republican Party won a landslide victory, winning a majority in both houses of Congress, and Trump could also win the presidency.
UBS believes that the probability is 35%. Before Biden gave up on the campaign, UBS had predicted that this was the most likely outcome.
In this outcome, Trump will face fewer restrictions when implementing his policy plans, such as his promised increase in tariffs and extension of the 2017 corporate tax cuts.
UBS expects that in this situation, business regulation in the United States will relax and merger and acquisition activities may increase. These factors will help support investments in fossil fuels, which is also the best scenario for the financial industry.
This means a slight benefit for the overall US stock market - although Trump's other proposals, such as tariffs, will soon offset these gains.
For example, many economists have expressed concerns about Trump's plan to increase tariffs, believing that raising tariffs will stimulate inflation. In this situation, UBS expects the Federal Reserve interest rates and the US dollar to rise. Meanwhile, raising tariffs may also be detrimental to the US technology industry, especially hardware and semiconductor companies.
In addition, UBS pointed out that Trump's proposal to establish an international drug pricing index may also have a negative impact on healthcare stocks.
(3) Harris wins election, 'blue wave' sweeps Congress
UBS believes that Harris has a 15% chance of winning the election while the Democratic Party also wins a majority in both houses of Congress. UBS believes that if this situation occurs, it would be the worst outcome for the US stock market.
Because in this situation, UBS expects that the tax cuts implemented by Trump in 2017 will be terminated, and business regulation in the United States will also tighten. Financial and fossil fuel companies will be hit the hardest. At the same time, inheritance taxes may increase, and state and local tax exemptions may also be limited.
In this context, the economic growth of the United States will slow down and prompt the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, while anti inflation will continue.
(4) Trump wins election, but 'red wave' does not appear
UBS predicts that the least likely outcome is for Trump to win the election, but for the Republican Party to fail to control Congress. UBS believes that the probability of this happening is 10%.
In this situation, the impact on the stock market will be mixed. Like the 'red wave', tariffs will still bring inflationary pressure and a strengthening of the US dollar, thereby moderately pushing up interest rates.
However, against the backdrop of the Republican Party's failure to win control of Congress, investment spending in the industrial sector may decline as uncertainty surrounding green energy plans increases.
At the same time, UBS expects regulatory pressure on the fossil fuel and financial industries to ease.
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
猜你喜欢
- The Boeing 777X aircraft in the United States has discovered problems during its first test flight
- What is the 'Global Central Bank Annual Meeting'? Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and others will give speeches
- Bilibili CFO Fan Xin: The goal for the third quarter is to achieve significant operating profit under non US GAAP standards
- After clocking in to work, I didn't come out again and was only discovered 4 days later! US trillion dollar banking giant, employee dies at workstation, police: investigating
- America's Peak Showdown! Harris and Trump face each other for the first time!
- Strawberry Bear Successfully Made Stars, Disney's Next Big Shot is Stitch
- Bilibili responds to 'suspected employee manipulation of lottery probability in live broadcast room': will investigate abnormal winning situations
- Institution: Apple iPhone 16 Series Debuts in the United States, Sales Decrease Slightly YoY
- Comments from various sectors in the United States on non farm farming: Can 12000 yuan still be used for "American style downgrading"? The expectation of interest rate cuts has stabilized
- Comments from various sectors in the United States on non farm farming: Can 12000 yuan still be used for "American style downgrading"? The expectation of interest rate cuts has stabilized
-
アップル(AAPL)は現地時間10月31日、9月28日までの2024年第4四半期の業績を発表し、同四半期の売上高は前年同期比6%増の949億3000万ドル、純利益は同36%減の147億3600万ドルだった。 純利益の下落は主に102億ドル ...
- 亲亲宝宝贝贝贾
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
【英偉達の需要が高すぎる?SKハイニックス:黄仁勲がHBM 4チップの6カ月前納入を要求!】SKハイニックスの崔泰源(チェ・テウォン)会長は月曜日、インビダーの黄仁勲(ファン・インフン)CEOが同社の次世代高帯域 ...
- 琳271
- 昨天 17:54
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
南方財経は11月5日、中央テレビのニュースによると、現地時間11月5日、米ボーイング社のストライキ労働者が59%の投票結果で新たな賃金協定を受け入れ、7週間にわたるストライキを終えた。ストライキ労働者は11月12 ...
- Dubssgshbsbdhd
- 半小时前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
【マスクはテスラが携帯電話を作ることに応えた:作れるが作らないアップルとグーグルが悪さをしない限り】現地時間11月5日、有名ポッドキャストのジョローガン氏のインタビューに応じ、「携帯電話を作るのは私たち ...
- 波大老师
- 2 小时前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏