Tesla's development direction has undergone tremendous changes.
At Tesla's Q2 earnings conference call held on July 24th, it was clear that there were not many "stories" left to tell about the automotive business. According to statistics from First Financial reporters, regarding Tesla's next generation of "affordable cars" that the market is concerned about, Tesla only briefly mentioned during its Q2 earnings conference call that production will begin as planned in the first half of 2025; Tesla's "star" model Cybertruck is expected to achieve profitability by the end of 2024; Regarding the progress of the Mexican Gigafactory, Tesla CEO Musk stated that it will be shut down until the end of the US election.
The key points of this Tesla earnings conference are focused on topics beyond the entire vehicle, such as Robotaxi, Tesla FSD (fully autonomous driving function), second-generation humanoid robot Optimus, computing power, and energy storage.
For Robotaxi, Tesla has stated that it will be postponed to October 10th and may be put into use by the end of this year, at the latest next year.
As for Tesla's FSD, Musk stated that a new version of the FSD (supervised version) has been launched, mainly relying on eye tracking software to monitor driver attention; Tesla may obtain FSD licenses in other markets, such as Europe and China, by the end of this year.
During the earnings call, it was also mentioned that Tesla's second-generation humanoid robot Optimus has been handling battery related tasks in the factory. It is expected that thousands of Optimus will be performing tasks in Tesla factories by the end of 2025, and deliveries to external customers will begin in 2026.
Against the backdrop of slowing global electric vehicle sales growth and intensifying market competition, although the automotive business remains Tesla's main business, its profitability is becoming increasingly weak. In the past three years, Tesla's automotive business gross profit margin has directly halved, dropping from 30% in the first quarter of 2022 to 14.6% in the second quarter of 2024. This has also led to a 45% year-on-year decline in Tesla's net profit in the second quarter of this year to $1.478 billion, lower than analysts' expectations of $1.81 billion. On July 24th, Tesla's US stock fell nearly 8% in pre-market trading.
Obviously, in the current situation where electric vehicles are becoming less and less popular, Tesla has placed all its hopes for future market value growth on AI. One is the application of AI in the car end - autonomous driving, including Robotaxi and FSD. The other is the embodiment of AI - humanoid robots. Finally, the demand for stable electricity from AI - energy storage.
Tesla is all in AI, "said Zhu Xichan, a professor at Tongji University's School of Automotive Engineering and director of the Institute of Automotive Safety Technology, at a forum recently. From Tesla's financial statements last year, it can be seen that Tesla is getting rid of low profits in the manufacturing industry, and its other two business segments have already gained profitability, one is the energy storage industry, and the other is the autonomous driving and artificial intelligence sectors.
In 2023, Tesla's total installed energy storage capacity for the year was 14.7 gigawatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 125%, and the profit of its energy generation and storage business almost quadrupled that year. This year, the demand for stable electricity based on the trend of artificial intelligence has continued to heat up Tesla's energy storage business. In the second quarter of this year, the installed capacity of Tesla's energy storage products reached 9.4 gigawatt hours, an increase of about 132% compared to the previous quarter, once again setting a new record for single quarter installed capacity.
In terms of FSD business, Tesla's revenue last year was approximately $700 million, accounting for 4.6% of its total net revenue. With the future landing of Tesla FSD in China, related revenue is also expected to experience rapid growth.
Bank of America stated in a report that Tesla can charge Chinese FSD users around $99 per month (based on its pricing in the United States), which would bring Tesla approximately $500 million in annual revenue even if only a quarter of its 1.6 million Tesla drivers subscribe. However, due to the possibility of FSD gross profit margins exceeding 70%, its profits could reach $350 million per year. In addition, based on predictions of future sales growth, Tesla's annual profit may reach $2.3 billion by 2030.
Besides FSD, Robotaxi is another business model for autonomous driving, and although this business still faces many challenges, there is a lot of room for market imagination. Arknights Investment Management CEO Cathy Wood estimates that by 2030, the entire market will generate approximately $80000 to $10 trillion in revenue, with half of that going to platforms such as Tesla.
In Musk's mind, energy storage and autonomous driving are just appetizers to Tesla's "All in AI" strategy, and what Tesla truly relies on in the future is humanoid robots with embodied intelligence.
Previously, Musk made a big picture at the 2024 shareholders' meeting, stating that the ratio of humanoid robots to humans in the future will exceed 1:1, and even reach an astonishing 2:1 ratio, indicating that the global humanoid robot market will have a huge capacity of 10 billion to 20 billion units, with an annual output of up to 1 billion units. If Tesla can occupy 10% of the market share, Optimus' annual production will reach 100 million units, and the cost of a single robot is expected to be controlled at around $10000. Calculated at a price of $20000, Tesla is expected to achieve a profit margin of $1 trillion per year.
Based on this, Musk believes that Tesla's market value is expected to reach $25 trillion. This means that in Musk's view, Tesla's market value (as of press time at $785.8 billion) still has more than 30 times the growth potential.
However, Musk has not specified the exact timing of the surge in the humanoid robot market, and even Tesla's Robotaxi and FSD businesses have repeatedly missed the deadline for implementation. After the tide of electric vehicles recedes, there is still a question mark on whether Musk's "AI myth" can continue to carry the banner of Tesla's market value. For investors, it is time to test their faith again.