Trump doesn't seem as stable as imagined!
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that after US President Joe Biden ended his re-election campaign and passed the torch to Vice President Kamala Harris, Harris currently leads Republican Donald Trump by a narrow margin of two percentage points in support.
By contrast, before Biden withdrew from the race, Harris trailed Trump by two percentage points in last week's opinion poll. In the latest national opinion poll, Harris leads Trump with a support rate of 44% to 42%, with a margin of error within 3 percentage points.
Harris told Wisconsin supporters at her first rally for the 2024 presidential campaign that she will "continue to unite the Democratic Party" in the coming weeks, preparing for next month's Democratic National Convention and this fall's showdown with Trump.
Trump previously stated that the first female president of the United States was undoubtedly his daughter Ivanka. At first, he clearly didn't take Harris seriously. So, with the reversal of the polls, how will Trump react?
According to FORTUNE, Elon Musk stated in an interview with conservative commentator Jordan Peterson on Monday night that although he has established a new super political action committee (PAC) to fund the Republican candidate, he has not spent $45 million per month to elect former President Donald Trump. He seems to have withdrawn his promise of $45 million per month to support Trump.
Harris counterattack
Harris' campaign team stated that she has been nominated as the Democratic presidential candidate. In a national opinion poll, Harris leads Trump with a support rate of 44% to 42%, with a margin of error within 3 percentage points.
In the July 15-16 poll, Harris and Trump both had a 44% approval rating, while in the July 1-2 poll, Trump led by one percentage point, with both within the same margin of error.
Although nationwide opinion polls provide important signals of Americans' support for political candidates, a few highly competitive states often influence the election results of the US electoral college, ultimately determining who will win the presidential election.
Harris is considered more sensitive than Biden and Trump. About 56% of registered voters agree with Harris, 59, stating that he has a sharp mind and can handle challenges, while only 49% share the same view with Trump, 78.
About 80% of Democratic voters say they have a favorable impression of Biden, while 91% also have a favorable impression of Harris. Three quarters of Democratic voters say they agree that Democrats and voters should now support Harris, while only a quarter say there should be multiple candidates competing for the party nomination.
When voters in the survey saw a hypothetical vote that included independent presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr., Harris led Trump by 42% to 38%, an advantage beyond the margin of error. Kennedy received support from 8% of voters in public opinion polls, but he had not yet qualified to run in many states before the November 5th election.
This public opinion survey was conducted online, surveying 1241 American adults nationwide, including 1018 registered voters.
In addition, measured by campaign donations, market forecasts, and support numbers, the impact of Biden handing over Harris on the election results is immediate. The earliest published national poll was the Morning Consult, which was the first major poll since Biden announced his withdrawal decision last Sunday. The results showed that Harris' approval rating was 45%, only 2% behind Trump's 47%, within a margin of error, and a significant improvement from Biden's 6%.
Support from the elite class
During the current Biden's reelection campaign, celebrity support for him was unusually low for several months, but now Hollywood has reignited its enthusiasm for support and is preparing to support the Democratic Party's new nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, to compete with former President Donald Trump.
A source close to Harris' campaign team said of the sudden influx of Hollywood calls, "My phone is almost bursting. I don't even have time to answer
A Democratic strategist with deep connections to the entertainment industry said, "I think people only realize how worried they are when they have hope." For Hollywood, Harris is hope.
In addition, Harris had just finished his first campaign stop in Milwaukee when he arrived at the upscale, tree lined streets of Chevy Chase, Maryland, to have a conversation with supporters organized by a JPMorgan executive. A spokesperson for JPMorgan confirmed that Peter Schell, Vice Chairman of the largest bank in the United States, will host the event at his home. The event aims to educate wealthy supporters about the Vice President and was planned before Harris became the Democratic nominee. Judy Damon, the wife of the chairman and CEO of the bank, had previously donated to the Biden Harris campaign team and attended discussions in the Washington area. Her husband Jamie Damon has had contact with the Biden and Harris camps as well as the Trump camp to discuss policy issues, but has no intention of donating or supporting any of the candidates. Interestingly, not long ago, Trump proposed to appoint Damon as the next Treasury Secretary.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who served in the 2016 presidential campaign, expressed her support for Harris in a column for The New York Times on Tuesday, stating that the Democratic nominee is "a shrewd former prosecutor and successful vice president" who can "provide a hopeful and united vision for the American people.
Gregory Meeks, chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus Political Action Committee, said that as Harris quickly became the Democratic presidential candidate, the committee received over $1.5 million in small online donations within two days. Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings has donated $7 million to a political action committee supporting Harris, making it the largest political donation Hastings has made to a single candidate.
The response of the Trump team
Regarding Harris' latest move, Republican Congressman Mike Lawler insists that Harris' candidacy will not affect the fierce competition in the House of Representatives, and stated that the Biden administration's policies have made Harris unpopular, and this influence will continue to affect her own candidacy.
Trump said on Tuesday that if he knew he would face Vice President Kamala Harris instead of President Joe Biden, he would still choose Ohio Senator J.D. Vance as his running mate.
In addition, the Trump campaign team filed a lawsuit with the Federal Election Commission on Tuesday, claiming that funds raised for Biden's re-election campaign cannot be transferred to Harris' presidential campaign.
The complaint was filed by David Warrington, the general counsel of the Trump campaign, who believes that the transfer of these funds is "nothing more than a covert transition donation of $91.5 million from one presidential candidate to another.
The copy of the indictment reads: "Harris attempted to defraud $91.5 million from Biden's remaining campaign funds - this blatant act of embezzlement would constitute the largest excess donation and largest illegal activity in the history of the 1971 Federal Election Campaign Act (as amended)
The complaint is against Biden, Harris, the Biden campaign team (now Harris campaign team), and campaign finance director Keana Spencer, accusing them of "blatantly violating the law by accepting and paying nearly $100 million in transitional donations and submitting false forms to the committee claiming to repurpose one candidate's main campaign committee for another candidate
Given the slow pace of the committee's resolution of enforcement issues, it is unlikely to take any action after election day. Rick Hassan, an election law expert at the UCLA School of Law, said that most campaign finance lawyers do not believe this is the best interpretation of the law.