There is new news coming from the US election!
According to the latest news, US Vice President Harris issued a statement on the 22nd local time stating that she has received sufficient support to become the Democratic presidential candidate. According to Agence France Presse, she feels "proud" to have the support of enough Democratic Party representatives to potentially win the Democratic Party's presidential nomination. I look forward to officially accepting the nomination soon, "Harris said in a statement, adding," I am proud to have received the broad support needed to become a nominee
On the 22nd local time, US President Biden stated that his decision to withdraw from the election was the "right thing to do" and that he will participate in Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign. Biden also called on campaign staff to "embrace" Harris. This is Biden's first public comment since giving up his re-election bid last Sunday. Biden said he will do his best to fulfill his duties in the last few months of his presidency.
On the same day, Biden's doctor issued a statement saying that after Biden received treatment, COVID-19's symptoms basically disappeared on the same day. Biden's heart rate, blood pressure, breathing, body temperature and other indicators are completely normal, and he will continue to handle presidential affairs as usual.
On the first trading day after Biden announced his withdrawal from the capital market, the three major indexes of the US stock market collectively rose, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes increasing by more than 1%. Investors began to turn to the technology sector again, and Nvidia surged nearly 5%, with its daily market value increasing by $137.9 billion (approximately RMB 1 trillion). In addition, Tesla rose over 5%, Google and Facebook rose over 2%, and Microsoft rose over 1%.
Biden's latest statement
On July 22nd local time, US President Biden announced that he will participate in Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign. When talking about his withdrawal decision, Biden said it was the right choice.
According to The New York Times, Biden made his first public comment since giving up his re-election bid on Sunday, convening a meeting with Harris at the joint campaign headquarters in Wilmington, Delaware. He thanks his' excellent team 'for all the work they have done for him and begs them to turn their energy to Harris now.
Biden told campaign headquarters staff on the same day, 'I know yesterday's news was surprising and difficult for you to accept, but it was the right thing to do.'. Biden told the campaign team, "The name at the top of the ballot has changed, but the mission hasn't changed at all. By the way, I'm not going anywhere. I will run with Harris. I will work hard, whether as a sitting president pushing legislation through or running for office. You know, we still need to save this democratic country, and Trump still poses a threat to the community. He poses a threat to the country." The report stated that Biden seemed determined to convey this message, repeating "not going anywhere" three times in a four minute speech.
Biden said he wants to use his remaining time in the White House to fight for more childcare, lower the cost of prescription drugs, curb climate change, and end the Gaza War. It is expected that Biden will hold talks with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House later this week and express optimism about the imminent ceasefire. I think we are about to be able to do this, "Biden said.
On the afternoon of July 21st Eastern Time, US President Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential election and expressed support for nominating Vice President Harris as the Democratic presidential candidate. Biden stated that he had intended to seek re-election, but in the best interest of the Democratic Party and the United States, he decided to withdraw from the presidential race and focus on fulfilling his presidential duties during his term. Harris subsequently issued a statement stating that she was "honored" to receive Biden's support.
After Biden announced his withdrawal from the election, Republican Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, issued a message urging Biden to immediately resign from his current presidency. Regarding the demand from some members of the Republican Party in the United States for Biden to step down immediately, Biden stated on July 22 that he will do his best to fulfill his duties in the last few months of his presidency.
Last week, Biden infected COVID-19 again and developed mild symptoms. He was quarantined in his home in Delaware and worked at home. On July 22 local time, Biden's doctor issued a statement saying that after Biden received treatment, COVID-19's symptoms basically disappeared on the same day. Biden's heart rate, blood pressure, breathing, body temperature and other indicators are completely normal, and he will continue to handle presidential affairs as usual.
Harris delivers a speech
On July 22nd, Harris gave his first campaign speech at the Wilmington, Delaware campaign headquarters, stating that he would use his experience as a prosecutor to "deal with" the Republican presidential candidate and former President Trump. She also stated that she "understands the type of Trump".
According to Reuters, Harris said in a speech that day, "I have dealt with all kinds of criminals. There are people who abuse women, scammers who deceive consumers, and rule breakers who break rules for their own interests. So listen to me, I understand the type of Trump. In this election, I will proudly use my experience to deal with him." The report stated that before becoming Vice President of Biden, Harris had served as California Attorney General.
Harris also praised Biden's political achievements. She said that Biden's performance during one term has surpassed the achievements of most presidents who have been re elected for two terms. She added that Biden also wanted to come here today, but he was regretful to be absent due to infection with COVID-19; In addition, Biden feels much better and is rapidly recovering from COVID-19 infection.
Biden's endorsement of Harris has sparked a lot of support from his Democratic colleagues, including former President Clinton and former Secretary of State Hillary, Progressive Caucus Chairman and Washington State Representative Jayapar, Wisconsin Senator Baldwin, and others.
After Harris' speech, several Democratic lawmakers, including Pelosi, expressed their support for Harris. 84 year old Pelosi said in a statement, "With love and gratitude, I pay tribute to President Biden, who has always believed in America's possibilities and given people the opportunity to fulfill their dreams. We must unite, move forward, defeat Trump once and for all, and elect Harris as the next President of the United States
Pelosi also stated that Harris, as a woman, is very shrewd in politics and fully believes that she can lead the Democratic Party to victory in the November presidential election.
Almost all well-known Democrats who were once seen as potential challengers to Harris have expressed their support for her, including Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Kentucky Governor Andy Bethel, California Governor Gavin Newson, and others.
Meanwhile, West Virginia Senator and independent Joe Manchin has stated that he will not run for the presidency of the United States, and Democratic presidential candidates should be selected through competition.
Yang Fan and Yuan Yuan, analysts at CITIC Securities, stated that Harris is currently the 49th Vice President of the United States and the first African American woman to hold this position; Its policy proposals were fully demonstrated in the 2020 Democratic primary election, slightly leaning towards the left compared to Biden, with closer ties to the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. Economic issues focus on equality, diplomatic issues emphasize so-called "values," and social issues support abortion, gun control, and other proposals.
Overall, the Democratic Party's upcoming "change of leadership" is mainly due to the collective "fear" of Trump's return to the White House and the "red wave" sweeping Congress. However, in the face of Trump's campaign pressure, Harris' voter appeal may also be difficult to quickly and significantly surpass Biden's scope, and the expectation of "Trump's return" may continue to play out. We need to pay attention to the nomination situation at the Democratic National Convention in August and the performance of Democratic candidates in the presidential debate in September.
Does Trump's increased chances of winning push up US stocks?
On Monday (July 22) local time, technology stocks in the US experienced a rebound, with the tech dominated Nasdaq rising 1.58%. Some analysts suggest that this is mainly due to Biden's announcement that he will not seek re-election, as well as his subsequent support for Harris, as experts say the market has readjusted expectations for Trump's victory - although the impact of stock price movements is likely to be short-lived.
On that day, most US technology stocks rose, with Netflix, Google, Facebook up over 2%, and Microsoft up 1.33%. The trend of chip stocks is even stronger, with Applied Materials rising over 6%, ASML rising over 5%, Nvidia rising 4.76%, Qualcomm rising 4.7%, and Intel rising over 1%.
Lori Calvasina, Global Head of Equity Strategy Research at Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets, stated in a report on Monday that Biden's decision has brought new surprises to investors who are trying to understand how political news will affect the stock market in 2024. Recently, investors' confidence in the next presidential candidate has become a key driving force for the stock market. Especially when the gambling market showed an increase in the probability of former President Trump winning the November election, the stock market also rose, and the S&P 500 index reached a recent high around July 16th.
Kalwasina further analyzed that if the momentum of the election shifts back towards the Democratic Party, according to historical data, this may lead to a short-term correction in the stock market. However, if Trump's lead expands, the stock market may avoid the expected pullback, although this pattern may not be sustainable.
Roundhill Investments CEO Mazza emphasized that if the new Democratic candidate makes the market expect the presidential race to be more intense, investors should expect greater volatility. He also mentioned that due to the upcoming announcement of performance by large technology companies, as well as the release of economic growth and inflation data, coupled with ongoing political turmoil, the market in the coming week may be quite chaotic.
Maza believes that although there may be a lot of macro news in the short term, the profitability of enterprises will ultimately be the long-term driving factor of the market. As for how investors should consider the possibility of a confrontation between Trump and Harris, Wall Street's initial reaction suggests that investors should maintain a wait-and-see attitude.
Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye wrote in a letter to clients that the expected shift in the November election could have a "very short-term" impact on the stock market, as more direct effects such as corporate profit growth and interest rate changes could have a more direct impact on stock prices.
On Monday, Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, stated in her latest report that as traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later this year, funds have recently flowed out of US tech giants and shifted towards some stocks that had previously underperformed. This trend appears to continue, but fundamentals still do not support chasing up US small cap stocks.
Shalett warns against chasing small cap stocks as their gains may not be sustainable. The lagging impact of interest rate cuts and the high number of unprofitable companies in the small cap stock index have made small cap stocks lack tailwind factors. The profitability issue of this group is unlikely to be resolved through a 75 basis point interest rate cut. Specifically, large cap stocks and high-quality cyclical stocks are Morgan Stanley's top choices, including finance, energy, industry, aerospace, defense, some power generation, and power grid infrastructure.