According to CCTV News, on the afternoon of July 13th local time, former US President Trump was attacked while giving a speech at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania.
Analysts believe that this event will cause gold to reach a historic high, and traditional safe haven assets such as US bonds, the US dollar, and the Japanese yen will also record capital inflows. Meanwhile, given that the "Trump deal" surrounding the US election also involves the trends of the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, investors are particularly concerned about the future trends of the US dollar and US Treasury bonds.
After the incident, most analysts expected that investors' first reaction would definitely be to flood into safe haven assets. Nick Twidale, chief market analyst of ATFX Global Markets, a global spread contract broker, said: "There is no doubt that there will be some safe haven capital flows in the market. I expect gold to hit a record high, and the funds will also buy yen and dollars and flow into US treasury bond bonds."
In addition to these traditional safe haven assets, cryptocurrencies have risen in response to the shooting incident. Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, said that after the shooting incident, he noticed some investors' funds flowing into Bitcoin and gold. "This event marks a turning point in US political norms, and the US is facing an emergency situation of greater political violence. For the market, this means safe haven trading, which may be more inclined towards non-traditional safe haven
Taking the shooting of then President Ronald Reagan 40 years ago as a reference, the US stock market fell before the early closing. According to data compiled by the media, the next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 index rose more than 1%, while the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield fell 9 basis points to 13.13%.
More market comments believe that the shooting incident has further increased Trump's chances of winning the election, making the "Trump trade" strategy that has been in full swing since the first round of presidential debates, betting that Trump will win the election and the Republican Party will gain a majority in both houses of the US Congress, even more significant. Assets related to the "Trump transaction" include US dollars, US treasury bond bonds, and stocks of private prisons, credit card companies and health insurance companies. Investors believe that the Republican Party's policies on tariffs, immigration, and deficits will lead to a strengthening of the US dollar, an increase in US bond yields (a decline in US bonds), and create a more favorable environment for stocks in these industries.
According to traders from market forecasting platform Polymarket, after the incident, the "yes" bet on whether Trump will win the presidential contract on Polymarket increased by 10 cents to 70 cents, which means investors now believe that Trump has a 70% chance of winning in November. The investors' bets on Polymarket are backed by blockchain, and the final settlement can be made in US dollars or cryptocurrencies. The more traditional gambling website PredictIt, which only settles in fiat currency, also showed a similar trend, with Trump's bet climbing from 59 cents before the shooting to 66 cents and then stabilizing at 65 cents.
Due to the fact that the US dollar and US Treasury bonds are both safe haven assets and important components of the Trump trade, investors are particularly concerned about the future trends of these two assets. Many analysts say that US Treasury bonds are the asset most affected by Trump's policies, and the US Treasury market may face turbulence in the future.
Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at BCA Research in California, said that US bond investors should pay special attention to the impact of the shooting incident, as it is likely to increase Trump's chances of being elected. "The bond market should realize at some point that Trump's chances of returning to the White House are higher than ever before. As his chances of winning increase, the likelihood of subsequent turmoil in the US bond market will also increase
In addition, cryptocurrency, as a non-traditional safe haven asset, is also an important component of the 'Trump trade'. Trump expressed full support for cryptocurrency during his campaign and stated that he will speak at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville in July. In mid June, he also met with representatives of American Bitcoin mining companies to express support for the cryptocurrency mining business. The CoinDesk 20 Index, which tracks the entire cryptocurrency market, has risen 3.31% in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin rose 3.26% to $59735.17. The token named after Trump has seen even greater gains. According to CoinGecko's data, MAGA rose 34% to $8.38 within 24 hours, while TREMP rose 67% to $0.6471. The token BODEN, named after Biden to mock him, has fallen about 15% in the past 24 hours to $0.0333115.2.