After the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles in 2019, the stock of electric bicycles that did not meet the standard was orderly phased out, and the market entered a replacement cycle. According to Frost Sullivan's statistics, from 2020 to 2022, the sales of electric two wheeled vehicles in China were 47.6 million, 49.75 million, and 60.7 million, respectively, with a compound growth rate of 12.93%.
However, as the policy dividend period approaches its end, the market size of two wheeled electric vehicles is beginning to decline, with an overall sales volume of 55 million units in 2023. IResearch Consulting believes that sales in 2024 will reach 50 million vehicles, a further decrease of about 9% year-on-year.
Under the competition of the stock market, two wheeled electric vehicle enterprises have begun to develop towards diversified business directions. On the 9th, Xiaoniu Electric launched products such as electric balance bikes and scooters, and began to expand into the women's market by launching electric motorcycle products.
"In the fiercely competitive electric vehicle market, Xiaoniu Electric has captured the changing needs of female consumers. Targeting the three major markets of high-end, young, and women, Xiaoniu Electric has launched redesigned U, Ms, B200, as well as the new Xiaoo series and other products this year, integrating women's aesthetics, driving habits, and safety needs into product design, tailoring exclusive seats for female users." Yang Kai, Vice President of Design at Xiaoniu Electric, recently told reporters that unlike traditional brands, Xiaoniu Electric's users are mainly concentrated among young people under the age of 35, with over 70% of users being born in the 1990s and 2000s. This user group has a high pursuit of emerging technologies, fashion elements, and personalized needs, and Xiaoniu Electric continues to launch products that cater to the tastes of young people.
A research report recently released by China Merchants Securities shows that, looking at the development of the entire two wheeled electric vehicle industry, before 2013, the industry was in a rapidly developing incremental market, with homogeneous products, low cost advantages for large manufacturers, and production capacity being the key; 2013-2018: The industry reached its peak in scale and entered the stock market, undergoing industry reshuffle in price and channel wars. Yadi Aima gradually gained a leading position; From 2019 to 2023: The new national standard has raised the industry threshold, becoming a key external force for pattern optimization, and small and medium-sized manufacturers have rigidly exited.
With the increase of industry concentration, in addition to business diversification, the development of the two wheeled electric vehicle industry has shifted from relying on "price wars" to focusing on enhancing the high-end value of brands and products. Especially with the new national standard raising industry standards and thresholds, leading and emerging enterprises have entered the upgrading competition of intelligence and high-end. Established companies such as Yadi have also begun to expand into the high-end market, while emerging players such as Xiaoniu and Jiuhao have been focusing on the high-end market since their inception.
"Although the overall sales of the industry have declined, for Xiaoniu Electric, the focus on the high-end market will not have a significant impact on sales. Although the high-end market may shrink in the short term, consumer upgrading is a major trend, and new value is based on technology and technological innovation." Xiaoniu Electric's Li Yan previously told reporters that other competitors may sacrifice products to lower prices, but this does not conform to Xiaoniu Electric's philosophy.
Two wheeled electric vehicle companies are seizing the market through innovation and optimization of products. With fierce competition in intelligent functions and core technologies, advanced concepts such as integrated control systems and intelligent architectures in the automotive industry are beginning to integrate into the field of electric two wheeled vehicles. For example, in terms of intelligent configuration upgrades, both Xiaoniu and No. 9 offer millimeter wave radar as standard equipment for new high-end models. In addition, Xiaoniu Electric has developed a two wheel electric intelligent system, integrating multiple functions such as multi frequency GPS positioning and keyless unlocking that were originally exclusive to cars into its two wheel electric vehicle products. Yadi's high-end intelligent electric vehicles have improved performance and chassis suspension, supporting Bluetooth, NFC, remote unlocking of mobile apps, and OTA cloud upgrades. Products such as Emma Commander 2023 and Dailing Superpower S also have similar functions.
It is worth noting that since 2023, the prices of lithium batteries have decreased, providing space for profit growth for two wheeled electric vehicle companies. Li Yan stated that the cost of batteries accounts for about 40% of a two wheeled electric vehicle, and the increase in lithium battery prices will bring great pressure to the two wheeled electric vehicle. Nowadays, the price of lithium batteries is constantly decreasing, and manufacturers will have more space to polish their products.
In addition, the two wheeled electric vehicle industry has also welcomed favorable policies this year. In terms of standards, the Safety Technical Specification for Lithium ion Batteries for Electric Bicycles, organized and drafted by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, will be officially implemented on November 1, 2024. Meanwhile, on April 12th, the Ministry of Commerce and 14 other departments jointly released the Action Plan for Promoting the Trade in of Consumer Goods, which includes electric bicycles in the scope of trade in. According to a report from iResearch Consulting, with the gradual implementation of the new national standard policy, the future two wheeled electric vehicle market will enter a more mature and stable stage. Consumer demand for electric vehicles will be more clear and stable, and the market will also usher in a more orderly competitive environment.