Latest survey: US real neutral interest rates have doubled, and the 'hard times' for US bonds and technology stocks are not yet over
芊芊551
发表于 2023-10-30 11:15:55
311
0
0
According to the latest Markets Live Pulse (MLIV Pulse) survey, after the COVID-19 epidemic, the neutral interest rate has at least doubled, which gives investors reason to be nervous about buying bonds or stocks.
A neutral interest rate level refers to interest rates that neither stimulate nor slow down the US economy.
Among 528 respondents, about 85% believed that the so-called real neutral interest rate (excluding the impact of inflation) had risen to about 100 basis points or more, while it was about 50 basis points before the outbreak of COVID-19.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated in March this year that "to be honest, we don't know" where the neutral interest rate is. But if the resilient US economy has pushed it above historical consensus levels, then the Federal Reserve has reason to maintain a tight monetary policy for a longer period of time.
As investors digest the prospect of long-term interest rate hikes, both stock and bond prices have recently suffered heavy losses. Last week, the yield of 10-year US treasury bond bonds briefly exceeded 5% for the first time since 2007, which especially triggered concerns about the valuation of technology stocks. Both the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq 100 index, which is dominated by technology stocks, have entered adjustments.
The pressure on US debt is unlikely to ease
For 10-year US treasury bond, respondents do not expect the pressure on this asset category to ease. According to the median forecast of respondents, the yield of 10-year US treasury bond bonds may be 5% by the end of the year.
Federal Reserve officials expect the long-term federal funds rate to be 2.5%, while assuming an inflation rate of 2%, implicitly predicting an actual neutral rate of 50 basis points.
In addition to economic intensity, the possible reasons for the rise in neutral interest rates include: the baby boomers are retiring and spending their savings, which reduces the supply of savings; China's interest in US treasury bond bonds is weakening; The expanding government deficit has intensified competition for investment capital.
More importantly, the uncertainty about the future after the COVID-19 epidemic prompted consumers to consume before saving, a phenomenon known as "high time preference". Essentially, this means that consumers will seek higher interest rates to invest, thereby pushing up neutral interest rates.
Most respondents were pessimistic about the impact of the rise in US treasury bond bond yields. Respondents expect that if the yield remains above 5% for a quarter or longer, it will lead to a hard landing of the economy, which is caused by the Federal Reserve's action to curb inflation and trigger an economic recession. About 47% said that the economy would calmly cope with the rise in treasury bond yields.
At 2am Beijing time on November 2nd, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate resolution, and officials are expected to stabilize interest rates at their highest level in over 20 years. At the press conference after the meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may mention the topic of rising treasury bond bond yields. Investors will focus on the Federal Reserve's view of the recent surge in treasury bond bond yields and what this means for the prospect of a soft landing of the economy.
Against the backdrop of the rise in US treasury bond bond yields and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at a higher level for a longer period of time, nearly 60% of the respondents said they expected the US dollar to strengthen in a month.
Technology stocks overvalued
For US stocks, over 60% of respondents stated that both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices are overvalued, while about 15% of respondents estimate that only technology stocks are overvalued.
45% of respondents said that the Nasdaq 100 Index will decline by up to 10% this quarter. 20% of respondents stated that the decline in the index will be even greater.
Earlier this year, the enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence prompted investors to overlook rising interest rates, driving the Nasdaq 100 index up about 35% in the first three quarters of this year. Now, the index is likely to decline for the third consecutive month, a situation that has never occurred in more than a year. According to a calculation, as of the close of last Friday, the index is still overvalued by 10%.
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
猜你喜欢
- Global markets: The three major US stock indices closed with mixed gains and losses, with most large tech stocks falling
- Sudden bearish trend! Non farm payroll data shows weakness, Nasdaq plummets by over 400 points, major tech stocks suffer heavy losses
- Loose cycle begins! Learning from history: There is a hidden correlation between FED interest rate adjustments and election results
- Gold breaks historical closing high! What did Huang Renxun, the CEO of Google, and other senior officials from the Biden administration discuss during their meeting with the general rise of large tech stocks?
- US tech stocks continue to rise, Tesla rises nearly 4%
- The European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates continuously, with Netflix leading the technology stock financial report
- The three major US stock indices collectively closed lower, while the Nasdaq fell more than 1%. Large tech stocks fell across the board
- Global markets: European and American stock markets close lower, Nasdaq falls more than 1%, large tech stocks all decline
- US stocks close down: Nasdaq falls more than 2%, large tech stocks generally decline
- Chairman of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group: Bank of Japan interest rates may hit 1% by March 2026
-
11月21日、2024世界インターネット大会烏鎮サミットで、創業者、CEOの周源氏が大会デジタル教育フォーラムとインターネット企業家フォーラムでそれぞれ講演、発言したことを知っている。周源氏によると、デジタル教 ...
- 不正经的工程师
- 昨天 16:36
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
アリババは、26億5000万ドルのドル建て優先無担保手形と170億元の人民元建て優先無担保手形の定価を発表した。ドル債の発行は2024年11月26日に終了する予定です。人民元債券の発行は2024年11月28日に終了する予定だ ...
- SOGO
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
スターバックスが中国事業の株式売却の可能性を検討していることが明らかになった。 11月21日、外国メディアによると、スターバックスは中国事業の株式売却を検討している。関係者によると、スターバックスは中国事 ...
- 献世八宝掌
- 前天 16:29
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
【意法半導体CEO:中国市場は非常に重要で華虹と協力を展開】北京時間11月21日、意法半導体(STM.N)は投資家活動の現場で、同社が中国ウェハー代工場の華虹公司(688347.SH)と協力していると発表した。伊仏半導体 ...
- 黄俊琼
- 前天 14:29
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏