Trump ultimately became the first former president in American history to be convicted. The New York jury ruled on Thursday that he was found guilty of 34 charges related to celebrity sealing fees. However, it seems that this has not yet had an impact on Wall Street.
Except for stocks of Trump Media Technology Group, most financial assets are generally stable. The stock plummeted by 15% in post market trading on Thursday, and although it later rebounded slightly, as of press release, the decline still exceeded 6%.
But for traders, the question now is whether this historic ruling will affect the landscape of the 2024 US election - Trump will almost certainly face off against current President Biden in the election, and whether the market will be affected.
Most analysts believe that it is currently unclear how this ruling will affect Trump's campaign, and further observation of sentencing outcomes and market reactions is needed.
Here are some comments from Wall Street analysts:
"The stock market has never been affected by domestic political turmoil. However, after Trump's ruling, the political atmosphere will clearly become more volatile, which may increase the volatility of the stock market," said Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, a long-term bull on Wall Street and investment consulting firm
Helen Given, a forex trader at Monex, said, "As far as forex is concerned, there won't be much change at the moment. What we're looking forward to now is the judgment in July."
Judge Juan Mercan has set the verdict date for July 11th, just a few days before the Republican Party is expected to formally nominate Trump as its presidential candidate. Trump will not be sentenced to prison until the verdict is pronounced.
Amarjit Sahota, Executive Director of Klarity FX, an independent foreign exchange risk management solution provider, said, "There are many uncertainties about what this means for his (Trump) campaign. We need to know what the sentencing will be in order to know what kind of impact it will have."
Investment consulting firm Miller Tabak& "It's hard to know how much direct impact it will have. This doesn't necessarily mean that Trump's chances of winning have declined," said Matt Maley, Chief Market Strategist at Co
Paresh Upadhyaya, Head of Fixed Income and Foreign Exchange Strategy at Orient Credit Suisse, said, "The market's reaction is likely to be mild. I believe that the market's expectations for a guilty verdict have already been reflected to some extent. The greater impact on the market may be if this guilty verdict starts to shift momentum from Trump to Biden. Nevertheless, I believe that the market's attention will not really be focused on elections before Labor Day (the first Monday of September)."
Adam Phillips, Managing Director of the Investment Department at EP Wealth Advisors, believes, "I believe many people are holding their breath and anxiously waiting for the market's reaction tomorrow (Friday Eastern Time). Unfortunately, we don't have any historical analogies to draw from, but we know the tension is intensifying and are prepared to deal with some pressure from risky assets. Ultimately, we believe that any weakness related to these events will be short-lived, and we suggest that investors continue to focus on long-term return drivers such as profit growth and overall economic prospects."
Kyle Chapman, a foreign exchange market analyst at Ballinger Group, believes that "to my knowledge, the most likely outcome is a fine, which is unlikely to affect his chances of being re elected. We must look at the reaction of opinion polls to the verdict. Trump's election as president may be beneficial to the US dollar, especially considering the geopolitical tensions and trade frictions he will bring. Therefore, if Trump's chances of being elected are affected, it may have a significant impact on the future."
Rodrigo Catril, strategist at the National Bank of Australia, said, "This result has not changed the situation where it still appears to be an evenly distributed election; given differences in policy recommendations, this means a lot of uncertainty. Therefore, I believe it is reasonable to be prepared, as increased uncertainty often comes with increased volatility. In these situations, the safe haven appeal of the US dollar may increase demand for it."