Gene Munster, a well-known technology analyst and executive partner of Deepwater Asset Management, said that the bull market of the U.S. stock market will continue to rise in the next three to five years, and then a spectacular foam will form and eventually burst.
Monster did not make such a prediction lightly, because he still has fresh memories of his painful experience as a technology analyst during the Internet boom and bust in the 1990s. He now believes that with the increasing popularity of artificial intelligence (AI) technology, the US stock market may experience a huge rise or ultimately a decline.
"We are in the early stages of a three to five year bull market, which may seem unrealistic given the recent market trends... But if you ultimately believe that the essence (impact) of the artificial intelligence trend will be more important than hype, then the market will continue," he added.
Be optimistic about small cap stocks
Monster said that overall technology stocks should continue to drive the stock market higher, but investors should not rely solely on large technology stocks to drive most of the gains. On the contrary, in his view, it will be mainly small companies focusing on AI that will inflate the stock market foam in the future.
"The essence of the foam will come from another type of technology companies, which will drive the stock market higher. I think part of it will be the IPO of AI priority companies," he said.
At the same time, he also stated that the "tech giants" should "continue to be in a favorable position overall, and they will benefit, but not the double to triple appreciation you think."
Monster's optimism is based on the view that the impact of AI technology will be twice that of the Internet.
"For me, the concept of General Artificial Intelligence (AGI) will be twice the size of the Internet. I think it will come from some small medium-sized stocks and some IPOs, which will eventually become the next 'seven giants of science and technology' in five years," he said.
Should still hold stocks
Although Munster believes that the rebound of the stock market will turn into a foam and end in a painful way at the end of this decade, this does not mean that investors should avoid holding stocks.
"It will end with the spectacular bursting of the foam, but I think it may create a lot of wealth between now and then," he said.
The biggest winner
Munster also emphasized that Alphabet and Meta are unique flagship assets in the technology focused investment portfolio of deepwater asset management companies, thanks to the artificial intelligence technology built within them.
"These two companies are unique because their future in artificial intelligence does not depend on other companies. If you look at what Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon are doing, they all require third-party models to truly drive their work. Therefore, when I really think about who will be the biggest winner in the field of artificial intelligence, I think it can be attributed to Meta and Google," he said.