As a result of successive interest rate hikes, the economy of the eurozone may be stagnant or even contracting in the third quarter.
阿豆学长长ov
发表于 2023-10-28 14:58:07
321
0
0
Of the 29 economists surveyed, with the exception of four, it is expected that, following a brief economic expansion in the second quarter, the data released on Tuesday will show that GDP either stagnated or contracted. Another report is expected to show a marked weakening of inflation in October.
The President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, warned this month that, after 10 hikes, the financial environment would be tightened as never before. She was informed earlier this week that she had indicated to EU leaders that the eurozone economy was at risk of stagnation and downside risks in the coming quarters.
This is more positive than the Barclay economist ' s prediction that the region could fall into recession.
“The monetary tightening is being strongly carried out, and we have yet to see it come to an end”, Silvia Ardagna, Director of European Economic Research at Barclays, said on Wednesday, “We believe that the core inflation rate and the overall inflation rate will fall to 2 per cent faster than the ECB expected, because we predict much weaker economic activity.”
Economists believe that the third quarter has the most toll on the eurozone economy in Germany, which will publish GDP data on Monday, as well as Austria and Belgium. The French and Italian data released the following day may indicate a marginal economic expansion.
Economic research perspective:
“In view of the weakening of growth and the downward trend in risk, the likelihood of a further increase this year is now very low.”
— Chief European Economist Jamie Rush
If eurozone data show a contraction, as expected by Bloomberg ' s immediate projections, this will be the first such decline in GDP since the outbreak of the new coronary outbreak in 2020. If stagnation occurs, it will confirm that the economy has grown in only one quarter of the past four quarters.
Next week's report may still give some encouragement to ECB policymakers – inflation is expected to slow significantly. The overall inflation rate is expected to be 3.1 per cent, up from the target of 2 per cent. Core prices, excluding volatile factors such as energy, increased even more, at 4.2 per cent in October.
In terms of both inflation and economic growth, the war in the Middle East is becoming a growing concern for officials.
“We are very concerned about the potential economic consequences of this, whether direct or indirect, on energy prices or the level of confidence that economic actors will continue to demonstrate”, Lagarde said on Thursday.
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
猜你喜欢
- Selling more and losing more? NIO's third quarter revenue decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, with an adjusted net loss of 4.413 billion yuan
- Manbang Group's third quarter revenue and net profit both hit a new high, continuing to help small and medium-sized enterprises reduce costs and increase efficiency
- Baidu achieved a revenue of 33.6 billion yuan in the third quarter, and the daily average call volume of the Wenxin big model reached 1.5 billion times
- Baidu's third quarter revenue reached 33.6 billion yuan, while non online marketing revenue increased by 12%
- Continuously exploring excellent health industry supply chains, gathering third quarter revenue of 88.6 million yuan
- Baidu's third quarter performance is filled with long-term AI strategies
- Baidu's net profit increased by 14% in the third quarter, and the Wenxin big model was called 1.5 billion times a day
- IQIYI's membership and advertising revenue experienced a double-digit decline in the third quarter, with increased efforts to attract new members through micro dramas
- National Standing Committee: Research on Promoting the Healthy Development of Platform Economy
- Pinduoduo's net profit in the third quarter declined month on month: fierce competition and slowing growth are inevitable trends, prepare for a long-term battle
-
11月21日、2024世界インターネット大会烏鎮サミットで、創業者、CEOの周源氏が大会デジタル教育フォーラムとインターネット企業家フォーラムでそれぞれ講演、発言したことを知っている。周源氏によると、デジタル教 ...
- 不正经的工程师
- 6 小时前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
アリババは、26億5000万ドルのドル建て優先無担保手形と170億元の人民元建て優先無担保手形の定価を発表した。ドル債の発行は2024年11月26日に終了する予定です。人民元債券の発行は2024年11月28日に終了する予定だ ...
- SOGO
- 前天 09:05
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
スターバックスが中国事業の株式売却の可能性を検討していることが明らかになった。 11月21日、外国メディアによると、スターバックスは中国事業の株式売却を検討している。関係者によると、スターバックスは中国事 ...
- 献世八宝掌
- 昨天 16:29
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
【意法半導体CEO:中国市場は非常に重要で華虹と協力を展開】北京時間11月21日、意法半導体(STM.N)は投資家活動の現場で、同社が中国ウェハー代工場の華虹公司(688347.SH)と協力していると発表した。伊仏半導体 ...
- 黄俊琼
- 昨天 14:29
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏