On Friday, local time (27 October), following the release of the PCE price index in September, a well-known journalist named Nick Timiraos, known as the New Federal Reserve News Agency, published his latest study through a joint contribution.
Timiraos wrote that the downward trend in inflation had slowed in the past month, but that the inflation situation had recently improved enough for Fed officials to maintain interest rates at the interest rate meeting next week.
Data published by the United States Department of Commerce indicate that the PCE price index in the United States increased by 3.4 per cent in September from 3.4 per cent to 3.4 per cent from 3.5 per cent; the core PCE index (excluding large fluctuations such as food and energy) increased by 3.7 per cent in September to reach a new low of 3.9 per cent since May 2021, which is consistent with expectations.
In the United States, the PCE price index round-up increased by 0.4 per cent in September, at the same rate as in August; the core PCE price index round-up increased by 0.3 per cent in September, up from 0.1 per cent in August.
The core PCE price index is an inflation indicator that the Fed is closely following and is of great interest to policymakers. The Fed will publish the latest interest rate resolution at 2 a.m. next Thursday, Beijing time.
Timiraos stated that Federal Reserve officials were closely following potential price trends to determine whether they had raised interest rates to a level sufficient to slow the economy and contain inflation. Over the past 20 months, the Fed has increased interest rates at the fastest rate in 40 years, and the interest rate on federal funds has been raised upwards to 5.25 to 5.5 per cent, the highest rate in 22 years.
Timiraos quoted data that the annualized growth rate of core price data rose by 2.8 per cent from April to September this year, well below the 4.5 per cent annualized growth rate of the previous six months (November of last year to March), while the Federal Reserve ' s inflation target was 2 per cent.
At last month's interest rate meeting, Federal Reserve officials expected to reduce core inflation to 3.7 per cent in the fourth quarter. Friday's report showed that inflation was expected to be lower than expected at the end of the year, which could strengthen the rationale for maintaining interest rate stability.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and other officials have suggested that they may maintain interest rates next week. Policy makers would like to observe the impact of monetary policy on the economy.
Data released by the United States Department of Commerce on Thursday show that the three-quarterly, seasonal and inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) per annum growth of 4.9 per cent exceeded market expectations by 4.5 per cent, the fastest increase in the last two years.
However, Timiraos warned that the United States economy faced a number of potential challenges in the coming months, including the risk of rising long-term interest rates, the escalation of conflict in the Middle East and the Federal Government ' s stagnation, which could hinder economic growth.