Tesla's first overseas energy storage super factory has landed in China, and construction is imminent.
On May 16th, the official news from Pudong New Area in Shanghai announced that Tesla's Shanghai Energy Storage Super Factory construction project has been issued a construction permit, which means that Tesla's first energy storage super factory project outside of the United States is about to start.
It is reported that the factory plans to start construction in May 2024 and achieve mass production in the first quarter of 2025. The initial plan is to produce 10000 commercial energy storage batteries annually, with a storage capacity of nearly 40 gigawatt hours (GWh).
Tesla CEO Musk previously stated during the Q4 2023 earnings conference call that Tesla's energy storage business will grow much faster than its electric vehicle business. Musk reiterated this viewpoint during the 2024 Q1 financial report conference call.
Several industry insiders have analyzed to reporters that Tesla chose to layout energy storage factories in China because China has the world's largest new energy industry chain and a favorable investment environment. The main uses of Megapack are divided into two directions: public utilities and large-scale commercial projects. Nevertheless, the landing of Tesla's energy storage super factory may still seize the high-end market, accelerate industry competition and clear production capacity.
(Tesla's off grid control software for energy storage projects, which can autonomously maintain grid stability and reduce costs by controlling energy assets. Tesla)
The advantages of a complete domestic new energy industry chain and a favorable investment environment attract factories to settle down
The reason why Tesla came to China to lay out energy storage factories is due to the complete industrial chain in China.
Qu Fang, an investment consultant at Wanlian Securities, told reporters that China has the world's largest energy storage market and the most comprehensive production enterprises, with a first mover advantage in market demand, product technology, and technical talent. Tesla Energy Storage has been building a closed-loop sales and industrial chain with its photovoltaic and new energy vehicles for a long time. In the future, it is inevitable to also build related industrial chains in China. Therefore, it is necessary to establish energy storage factories in China.
Moreover, the government's support for new energy and energy storage provides a favorable investment environment. At present, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has exceeded 40%, and the latest sales data shows that the sales proportion of new energy vehicles has exceeded 50%, which has a significant advantage compared to the penetration rate of less than 10% of new energy vehicles in the United States. Energy storage is also significantly supported by policies.
Zhang Xiaorong, President of the Deep Science and Technology Research Institute, stated that China has the world's largest new energy industry chain, including battery raw material supply, battery manufacturing capacity, and production of supporting components, which is beneficial for Tesla to reduce production costs and improve supply chain efficiency.
China is one of the largest renewable energy markets in the world, actively promoting clean energy and vigorously developing the energy storage industry to meet the demand for grid peak shaving and smooth fluctuations. With the advancement of China's "dual carbon" goals, the demand for energy storage market will continue to grow, providing Tesla with broad market space.
In his view, Tesla's Shanghai Superfactory has achieved success in the field of electric vehicles, established good cooperative relationships with local governments, and accumulated rich experience in localized production and operation. On this basis, expanding energy storage business can fully utilize existing resources and achieve synergistic effects.
The Shanghai Lingang New Area has complete infrastructure, convenient logistics conditions, and the advantage of being close to the port, which facilitates the production and export of Tesla energy storage products.
Battery production is more oriented towards the B-end and can be used as a backup power source
The construction of an energy storage super factory in China this time is mainly used for the production of commercial energy storage batteries Megapack.
The reporter found that each Megapack unit can store over 3.9 MWh of energy, which is enough to meet the hourly electricity demand of 3600 households.
The main uses of Megapack can be divided into two directions: public utilities and large-scale commercial projects.
For example, in terms of public utilities, the first two years of operation of the Hornsdale Energy Reserve generated $150 million in revenue, effectively supplying electricity to South Australia. The equipment in Holes Bay is currently participating in UK energy trading, with less than 2400 square feet of space capable of storing 15MWh of energy. In the Hawaii Cute Island cooperation project, a 52MWh energy reserve paired with 13MW solar power generation provides an energy conversion solution for the island, which can reduce the burning of 1.6 million gallons of fossil fuels annually.
In terms of large-scale commercial projects, Kinki Railway has installed an emergency backup power supply for Osaka Railway services, which can enable all trains to reach the nearest station in the event of a power outage in the public grid. The Sierra Nevada distilleries have their own storage of clean energy for use when energy prices are high or there are no solar production conditions, saving hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Zhang Xiaorong mentioned that Megapack's main customer base will be B-end users, including grid operators, utility companies, independent power producers, large industrial and commercial users, and renewable energy project developers. These customers typically require large-scale energy storage systems to balance power supply and demand, stabilize the power grid, improve renewable energy utilization, participate in electricity market transactions, or serve as backup power sources.
For the target group, An Guangyong, an expert from the Credit Management Committee of the All China Mergers and Acquisitions Association, added that there will also be some C-end users purchasing Megapack for home energy storage.
Qu Fang mentioned that currently Megapack's customer base is mainly concentrated in Europe and America. According to Tesla's forecast, the world will ultimately require 240TWh of energy storage capacity.
Tesla's entry accelerates industry competition and capacity clearance
Qu Fang stated that it is expected that the global energy storage market will reach hundreds of billions of dollars by 2025.
Nowadays, domestic car manufacturers have successively laid out their positions in the energy storage industry. Coupled with existing companies such as CATL and Huawei, the energy storage market will inevitably accelerate industry reshuffle in the future, while also promoting enterprises to invest more resources in research and development. Tesla's layout in the energy storage industry was actually earlier, starting in 2015. In recent years, its energy storage industry has developed rapidly, currently occupying a 9% market share. Especially in the United States, it has already divided the world equally with LG. In the future, its focus will gradually shift towards the energy storage market.
But precisely because of this, there are hidden concerns of overcapacity in the current domestic energy storage market after rapid expansion. Qu Fang mentioned that the capacity utilization rate of energy storage enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, has been declining year by year, and the price of energy storage batteries has been continuously decreasing. Currently, many energy storage enterprises have already experienced losses.
In this context, Tesla's bundled sales model of new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and energy storage undoubtedly has a significant impact on individual product manufacturing enterprises. In addition, its brand premium advantage makes it easier to accelerate market competition.
On the other hand, new technologies are still gradually entering the market, and outdated production capacity is accelerating its elimination. Enterprises compete in market development, technological innovation, and cost control. Tesla's entry will undoubtedly accelerate industry competition and clear production capacity.
Zhang Xiaorong mentioned that the global energy storage market presents a diversified competitive pattern, with professional energy storage manufacturers such as Tesla, LG Energy Solution, CATL, BYD, as well as traditional power equipment manufacturers, power companies, energy service providers, and other cross-border participants. The market can be divided into various types according to technological routes, such as lithium-ion batteries, flow batteries, compressed air energy storage, flywheel energy storage, etc. Each technological route has its own advantages and disadvantages, and the applicable scenarios are different.
On the one hand, Tesla may seize the high-end market and squeeze the share of other high-end brands; On the other hand, its large-scale production and cost control capabilities may drive market prices down, affecting the overall profit margin of the industry. In addition, Tesla may drive the improvement of industry standards, driving the industry towards higher technological levels and better service models.
In An Guangyong's view, the competition in the energy storage market is quite fierce, with various enterprises engaging in all-round competition in technology research and development, capacity expansion, market development, project execution, and business model innovation. With policy driven, technological progress, and cost reduction, market entry barriers are gradually lowering, new entrants are increasing, and competition will further intensify. At the same time, with the deepening of electricity market reform, the rules for energy storage to participate in electricity trading are constantly evolving, posing higher requirements for enterprise market strategies. Overall, the competition in the energy storage market presents a high degree of dynamism and complexity.
New Beijing News Shell Finance Reporter Lin Zi
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