On October 26th, the new version of Tesla Model 3 officially began delivery in China, with a starting price of 259900 yuan increasing instead of decreasing. On the contrary, all Tesla models have experienced multiple rounds of varying degrees of price reductions since the beginning of this year.
A reporter from China Business Daily noticed that the continuous price reduction strategy has significantly "slowed down" Tesla's performance. Recently, Tesla's quarterly report showed that during the reporting period, Tesla's revenue growth rate was lower than expected; Net profit decreased by 44% year-on-year; The comprehensive gross profit margin has declined for the third consecutive quarter, the lowest level in nearly four years.
Sales are mixed. According to relevant statistical data, Tesla has delivered over 1.324 million electric vehicles in the first three quarters of this year, surpassing the 1.314 million in 2022. However, in terms of the third quarter, Tesla's global new car delivery volume was approximately 435100 units, a decrease of 6% compared to the second quarter.
In addition, Tesla has frequently been embroiled in recall scandals. After recalling over 1.1 million electric vehicles in May this year, nearly 5000 Modol X vehicles have recently been recalled in China again due to brake issues. On a global scale, the number of Model X recalled this time is as high as 55000, which may have a certain impact on Tesla's sales in the short term.
We cannot always maintain a compound growth rate of 50%, but our development will be very rapid, far faster than any other automotive company. "During the earnings conference call, Tesla CEO Elon Musk stated that Tesla is willing to continue sacrificing gross profit margin in exchange for sales growth and must make products more affordable so that people can afford them.
Highlight the "sequelae" of price reduction
Since the beginning of this year, Tesla has sparked a wave of price cuts worldwide, but the side effects of its "price for quantity" sales strategy have gradually emerged.
According to financial report data, in the third quarter of this year, Tesla achieved a revenue of 23.35 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 9%, the slowest growth rate in three years, and lower than the market expectation of 24.06 billion US dollars; Net profit also decreased significantly by 44% year-on-year to $1.853 billion.
Tesla stated that the reason for the decline in net profit was due to insufficient utilization of new factories, an increase in operating expenses caused by the upcoming electric pickup truck Cybertruck, as well as expenses for artificial intelligence and other projects.
In fact, the price reduction strategy also directly affects Tesla's profit margin. Financial report data shows that in the third quarter of this year, Tesla's comprehensive gross profit margin fell for the third consecutive quarter, only 17.9%, a significant decrease from 25.1% in the same period in 2022, and the lowest level in nearly four years.
Nevertheless, Tesla's delivery volume did not meet external expectations. According to relevant statistical data, Tesla's global new car delivery volume in the third quarter of this year was approximately 435100 units, an increase of about 27% year-on-year, but a decrease of 6% compared to the second quarter.
JPMorgan Chase pointed out that even after significant price reductions for all models, Tesla is still unable to deliver more vehicles, which may indicate a fundamental issue with demand. JPMorgan Chase analyst Ryan Brinkman said that before the price reduction, Wall Street estimated Tesla's delivery volume to be about 2 million units this year, but now this number has dropped to 1.8 million units.
Zhang Xiang, a researcher at the Automotive Industry Innovation Research Center of Northern University of Technology, believes that Tesla's performance has significantly declined, partly due to traditional car companies accelerating the pace of new energy transformation, and partly due to the increasing number of competitors in the Chinese market. In this context, Tesla's strategy of "exchanging price for quantity" is not wrong, but other competitors are also lowering prices. The new energy vehicle industry has entered a "reshuffle" stage, so Tesla's price reduction effect is not so obvious.
Regarding this, Musk bluntly stated that he is willing to lower the prices of electric vehicles again during the "turbulent period", sacrificing gross profit margin in exchange for sales growth. But it is also concerned about the high interest rate environment in the United States, where car buyers focus on monthly supply. If interest rates remain high or even higher, it will be much more difficult for people to buy cars.
In Musk's view, cost control is crucial to maintaining profits while reducing car prices. Reducing costs sometimes feels like digging a tunnel with a spoon. If you produce a car priced at $40000, there will be approximately 10000 components, which means that each component costs an average of $4. Therefore, in order to reduce costs, such as by 10%, it is necessary to save an average of 40 cents from each component
Frequent recall incidents within the year
The house leaks and it rains continuously at night. While Tesla is doing everything possible to boost sales and reduce costs, some Tesla Model X models have been recalled due to brake issues.
On October 20th, the State Administration for Market Regulation announced that Tesla Motors (Beijing) Co., Ltd. has filed a recall plan with the State Administration for Market Regulation in accordance with the requirements of the "Regulations on the Administration of Defective Automotive Product Recall" and the "Implementation Measures for the Regulations on the Administration of Defective Automotive Product Recall". Starting from October 20, 2023, a total of 4787 imported Model X electric vehicles with production dates from October 13, 2021 to September 28, 2023 will be recalled.
According to a report by the Wall Street Journal on October 24th, globally, the number of Model X recalled this time is as high as 55000, all produced from 2021 to 2023.
According to the above announcement of the State Administration for Market Regulation, vehicles within the scope of this recall may not be able to issue an alarm when the brake fluid level is low due to insufficient calibration range of the brake fluid level sensor signal received by the vehicle controller. In extreme cases, it may affect the vehicle's braking, increase the risk of collision, and pose a safety hazard.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration of the United States also stated, "Without warning lights, vehicles may drive with low brake fluid, which may reduce braking performance and increase the risk of collisions
In response, Tesla has stated that it will provide free software upgrades for vehicles within the recall range through OTA technology, correct the calibration range of the vehicle controller's signal reception, and ensure accurate warning when the brake fluid level is low.
The reporter noticed that in recent years, Tesla has experienced frequent large-scale recalls worldwide. In the Chinese market, Tesla recalled a total of 791500 vehicles in six batches in 2022, making it the passenger car brand with the highest number of recalls throughout the year and the first new energy vehicle brand to reach the annual recall list.
In May this year, Tesla recalled more than 1.1 million electric vehicles produced between January 12, 2019 and April 24, 2023 in China. This is not only the largest recall event initiated by Tesla in the Chinese market, but also the largest single recall event in China since August 2021.
It is worth mentioning that the recall of over 1.1 million electric vehicles produced by Tesla is also due to brake issues. The specific reason is that these vehicles may increase the probability of accidentally stepping on the accelerator pedal for a long time, increase the risk of collision, and pose a safety hazard.
Zhang Xiang stated that nowadays, the software proportion and informatization level of new energy vehicles are becoming increasingly high, and inevitably many loopholes will appear. Therefore, the recall frequency of major car companies, including Tesla, is increasing, which may have a negative impact on car sales in the short term.
The entry of new car models into the market is mixed
In the eyes of industry insiders, the relatively single model is one of the important reasons for Tesla's sluggish sales. On October 19th, the updated version of the Tesla Model 3 produced by Tesla's Shanghai super factory was officially sold in China, which is also considered an important new product for Tesla to make a comeback.
It is understood that the new version of Tesla Model 3 has been upgraded in terms of performance, design, and other aspects, reducing costs by 14%. The market had previously expected prices to drop to around 200000 yuan. But unlike previous price reduction strategies, the Tesla Model 3's new rear wheel drive version starts at 259900 yuan, while the long range all wheel drive version starts at 295900 yuan. Contrary to market expectations, the lowest price has increased by 28000 yuan, an increase of over 12%.
Recently, the most frequently inquired about by customers in stores is the updated version of the Tesla Model 3. "On October 24th, a salesperson at the Xingye Taikouhui Tesla Experience Store in Shanghai told reporters that the sales volume of the updated version of the Tesla Model 3 is still relatively large, with 60 to 70 orders taken less than a week after the store opened. At present, the pick-up cycle for this car is 6-9 weeks, and the current order is expected to be delivered in mid December.
Two days later, on October 26th, the new version of Tesla Model 3 officially began delivery in China. Tesla stated that with the delivery of the updated version of the Tesla Model 3, it will help Tesla continue to achieve 50% compound annual growth in 2023 and achieve its delivery target of 1.8 million vehicles. In addition, the re evolved Tesla Model Y is gradually being delivered to domestic car owners, and the highly anticipated Cyberrack is also scheduled to undergo its first delivery at a super factory in Texas, United States on November 30th.
However, Cyberrack, hailed by Musk as Tesla's "best product in history," is facing mass production challenges. Musk stated that to achieve mass production of Cyberrack and achieve positive cash flow at affordable prices, a lot of work needs to be done. This is a great product, but from a financial perspective, it will take another year to a year and a half to become a significant positive cash flow contributor
It is understood that Cyberrack has received approximately 1 million orders, but currently does not have the ability to deliver on a large scale. Due to the decline in sales, the capacity utilization of the new factory was insufficient. In March of this year, it was announced that the planned construction of the Mexican super factory had been pressed the "pause button", which was planned to solve the problem of electric pickup truck production capacity.
We are digging our own grave when developing Cyberrack, and it is difficult for you to bring this rare special product to the market, achieve mass production, and make a big profit. According to Musk, it will not be until 2025 that Tesla can increase the annual production of Cyberrack to about 250000 vehicles.