Tesla CEO Musk's lightning fast visit to China at the end of last month has once again sparked discussions and speculations about Tesla's FSD entering China.
According to China Daily, Tesla has proposed landing unmanned taxis (Robotaxi) in China. In this regard, the Chinese government may first support its testing and demonstration in China, but has not yet fully approved the full implementation of FSD in China. Time Finance interviewed Tesla China regarding this matter, but they stated that they have not responded yet.
What conditions are needed for FSD to land in China? If it can land, will it once again become a "catfish" stirring up the intelligent driving industry? Compared to FSD, which arrived earlier, or Tesla's autonomous taxi.
Robotaxi has been receiving constant news recently. During the 2024 Q1 financial report conference call, Musk announced that the company will release Tesla Robotaxi on August 8th. In China, the two major travel platforms that are sprinting for Hong Kong stock IPOs, such as Qi Chuxing and Cao Cao Chuxing, have coincidentally included autonomous driving and Robotaxi as important content in their prospectus.
What conditions are required for FSD to land in China?
As a auto drive system, Tesla FSD data acquisition is an inextricable link.
An autonomous driving engineer told Times Finance that although Tesla FSD belongs to an end-to-end large model, when applied in China, it is still necessary to supplement the training data of domestic scenarios, mainly related to traffic rules and traffic signs. Complex intersection data also needs to be re collected and annotated for adjustment.
As is well known, road data is to some extent related to safety and therefore highly valued. It can be seen that in order for FSD to be implemented in China, compliance and localization are required for data collection, storage, and other aspects.
Tesla FSD V12 has been upgraded to an end-to-end neural network.
It is worth noting that on April 28th, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released the "Notice on the Testing of Four Safety Requirements for Automotive Data Processing (First Batch)", which showed that all models produced by Tesla's Shanghai Super Factory met the compliance requirements and passed four compliance requirements: anonymous processing of external facial information, default not to collect cabin data, cabin data in car processing, and significant notification of personal information processing.
After passing the four safety and compliance requirements, Tesla also stated that various regions in China have gradually lifted restrictions on Tesla's travel and parking restrictions.
In terms of data storage, when Tesla responded to the "Sentinel Mode" in August 2023, it clearly pointed out that Tesla has established a data center in China to localize data storage. All data produced by vehicles sold in the Chinese Mainland market will be stored in China.
In addition, according to media reports such as The Wall Street Journal, Tesla has also collaborated with Baidu to deeply customize lane level maps for use in FSD systems. In the view of industry insiders, using lane level map data provided by Baidu can not only solve Tesla's surveying and mapping qualification issues, but also accelerate the implementation of FSD in China. Tesla China has also not provided a response regarding its cooperation with Baidu.
Due to the fact that data is obtained and stored locally, model training also needs to be conducted locally, and building a local computing power center is an essential part.
Regarding this, Yu Liutian, the founder of Yuanzhou Zhixing, told Time Finance, "The main difficulty in landing Tesla FSD in China lies in the construction of data centers. The cost of rebuilding data centers is extremely high, and these factors have certain obstacles to training deployment."
Becoming a catfish in the industry again?
Tesla once led the global electric vehicle industry, and as the second half of competition, intelligence, especially intelligent driving technology, has once again become the focus of attention.
Several engineers engaged in the development of autonomous driving have told Time Finance that Tesla's autonomous driving technology is in a leading position in the industry. Although technologies such as end-to-end neural networks and BEV+Tranforemer have long existed, Tesla was the first car company to implement them, playing a leading and driving role.
"I think Tesla will usher in a ChatGPT moment, even if it's not this year, I don't think it will be later than next year." Musk's confidence in saying this comes from Tesla's significant breakthrough in autonomous driving technology.
With the update on April 10, 2022, Tesla FSD removed the Beta logo and changed it to FSD (Supervised), officially introducing the concept of FSD V12. The Tesla FSD V12 version fully utilizes end-to-end neural networks, making it the first end-to-end autonomous driving solution to be implemented. Compared to previous versions, many decisions perform more closely to humans.
In April this year, Lin Bin, co-founder and vice chairman of Xiaomi, experienced the Tesla FSD V12 version in the United States. He wrote, "When it comes to vehicle operation, FSD is more like a person driving. For example, when turning right at this intersection, the car will stop like a person first, then slowly move the front of the car forward, make sure there is no oncoming car on the left, and then accelerate to turn.".
Fully autonomous driving is Tesla's ultimate goal. On social media, Musk used a metaphor to express his admiration for autonomous driving technology: "Betting heavily on autonomous driving technology is an obvious choice, everything else is like some variation of a carriage."
Screenshot taken from Musk's social media account.
At present, Tesla FSD has iterated to V12.3 version. For the upcoming FSD V12.4, Musk has announced that drivers will no longer be required to turn the steering wheel. He also revealed that testing of FSD V12.5 and 12.6 versions is currently underway, capable of handling more complex scenarios, including navigating narrow single lane roads and dealing with sudden road closures, requiring vehicles to reverse and find alternative routes.
However, if it is to land in China, it will take time from collecting data to retraining, and at the same time, Chinese car companies are continuously increasing their investment in intelligent driving.
At the recent Beijing Auto Show, domestic brand new cars have been promoting intelligence as one of the core elements. At the Huawei Intelligent Automotive Solutions New Brand Launch, Jin Yuzhi, CEO of Huawei Intelligent Automotive Solutions BU, pointed out that intelligence has become a key factor for users to purchase cars. Taking Wenjie as an example, over 70% of users choose the advanced intelligent driving version.
In addition, the Wei brand Blue Mountain Intelligent Driving Edition made its debut at the Beijing Auto Show, equipped with a coffee whole vehicle intelligent solution. Among them, the Coffee Pilot Ultra Intelligent Driving System claims to support high-precision full scene NOA function; Looking up at the third model, the million dollar flagship sedan Looking up U7 has also made its offline debut. Combined with the "Eye of the Gods" advanced intelligent driving assistance system, it is predicted that the city navigation function will be launched in the third quarter of this year.
The city NOA of Xiaomi SU7 will also be launched in May. Jiyue Automobile, which also adopts a pure visual solution, plans to achieve urban NOA coverage nationwide this year and announced that by the end of 2024, the intelligent driving system can be used wherever Baidu Maps can navigate. It can be seen that "NOA can be opened nationwide" has become a new competitive focus.
At the same time, the prices of high-end intelligent driving continue to decline. In terms of technology and price, Chinese smart cars will become strong competitors for Tesla FSD in the Chinese market.
Robotaxi is constantly receiving news
Compared to Tesla FSD, Tesla Robotaxi may be the first to meet Chinese users.
According to China Daily, the Chinese side may first support Tesla's testing of autonomous taxis in China, but has not yet fully approved the full implementation of FSD in China. Regarding FSD's entry into China and testing of Robotaxi, Time Finance has sought confirmation from Tesla China, but they have stated that they have not responded yet.
During the Q1 2024 earnings conference call, Musk confirmed that Tesla will release the Robotaxi product, or be named "Cybercab," in August of this year; It also stated that the company is developing an autonomous taxi, Robotaxi, which hopes to achieve mass production in 2024, which will be a "huge driving force" for Tesla's future growth.
The project was put on Musk's agenda as early as 2016. Musk stated in 2019 that in the first phase, Robotaxi's business model would be similar to ride hailing and shared cars, with an average cost per mile of travel reduced to less than $0.18. In 2022, Musk once again stated that Robotaxi is expected to be mass-produced in 2024 and will remove the steering wheel or pedals.
Morgan Stanley maintained its optimistic expectations for Tesla in its research report in April this year, stating that the launch of Robotaxi symbolizes a shift in Tesla's business model towards hardcore AI and robotics technology. They predict that by 2030, Tesla's mobile travel business revenue will reach $17 billion, directly driving the growth of total revenue.
Outside of Tesla, there has been constant news in the Robotaxi industry recently.
On April 29th, Cao Cao submitted his prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Cao Cao Chuxing said in the prospectus that part of the raised funds will be used to invest in automatic driving. He will cooperate with Geely Group to install vehicles with L4 auto drive system for mass production in the future, and is working with business partners to launch the unmanned taxi plan.
In September 2022, Cao Cao Chuxing and the Intelligent Driving Center of Geely Automotive Innovation Research Institute launched a cooperation on the Robotaxi project.
In Cao Cao's view, in the long run, it is expected that autonomous driving will drive the structural transformation of China's shared transportation market. The progress of autonomous driving can increase the supply of compliant vehicles and create huge space for cost reduction.
Ruqi Chuxing, which submitted its second form to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in March this year, also placed autonomous taxis in an important position.
At present, Ruqi Chuxing has implemented a mixed dispatching mode of Robotaxi and manned ride hailing services, which will be launched in Nansha, Guangzhou and Shenzhen in 2022 and early 2024 respectively. It is predicted that Robotaxi will be commercialized around 2026 and enter a mature commercialization stage before 2030.
According to the prospectus of Ruqi Chuxing, Robotaxi and Shunfengche services, marketing and promotion services are classified as "other" sectors. From 2021 to 2023, the revenue of this sector was 7.276 million yuan, 4.812 million yuan, and 2 million yuan respectively, accounting for 0.7%, 0.3%, and 0.1% of the total revenue. Although this sector has not suffered losses, the Robotaxi business of Ruqi Chuxing still has a considerable distance to go.
At present, the competitive landscape of Robotaxi in China is still constantly changing. According to a research report by Huafu Securities, the development of Robotaxi industry requires joint efforts from all parties. The "Golden Triangle" cooperation model launched by vehicle manufacturers, autonomous driving technology companies, and travel service operators is currently the mainstream. Among them, autonomous driving technology companies are driving the commercialization process of Robotaxi, and having mature L4+technical support is the key to the landing of Robotaxi.
Screenshot of the promotional video for Zizhiqi's travel.
On April 7th, Didi Autonomous Driving Company and GAC Aion jointly invested in the establishment of Andi Technology. Andi Technology has become the first joint venture established by L4 autonomous driving companies and car companies in China to create Robotaxi mass-produced vehicles. Its first commercial L4 model is planned to be launched in 2025.
On April 26th, Xiaoma Zhixing and Toyota jointly established a new company, Zhuifeng Intelligent Technology. The first phase plans to launch a thousand units of Platinum Intelligence 4X L4 level autonomous Robotaxi in the Chinese market, and provide autonomous Robotaxi travel services in major first tier cities through Xiaoma Zhixing's operation platform.
Zhou Xiaoyun, Director of Toyota China's External Strategic Cooperation Business, stated that Toyota and Xiaoma Zhixing have decided to establish a joint venture with the aim of promoting the commercialization of highly autonomous vehicles in the future. "We believe that the current technology has reached a state where it can be used for commercial implementation."
The policy has also provided assistance to Robotaxi. On May 1st, the Hangzhou Intelligent Connected Vehicle Testing and Application Promotion Regulations were officially implemented, and the main central urban areas of Hangzhou were designated as areas for intelligent connected vehicle testing and application. Hangzhou has also become the first city in China, apart from the Special Economic Zone, to have local legislation clarifying the specific process of autonomous vehicles on the road, and the first city in the country to have legislation for low-speed unmanned vehicles.
If Tesla Robotaxi can be tested in China, it will undoubtedly play a role in verifying the reliability and feasibility of Tesla FSD technology. A transportation expert told Time Finance that a major role of Robotaxi is that "compared to non operational vehicles, operational vehicles accumulate data much faster and can collect more data for model optimization at the same time."
With the rapid iteration of FSD software, the answer to whether Tesla Robotaxi has the ability to be completely autonomous will be revealed on August 8th.