According to Yonhap News Agency, the Korea Development Institute (KDI, South Korean think tank) released the "October economic trends" on the 11th, pointing out that thanks to the recovery of semiconductor production, South Korea's economic downturn has gradually stabilized, but external uncertainties remain.
The report's analysis fails to reflect the impact of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The report pointed out that the decline in manufacturing production has shrunk sharply, the average operating rate has rebounded, and the signal that the downturn is easing has increased. But the report also said that the situation of higher interest rates in the United States may persist for a long time, pushing up domestic market interest rates, which will have a negative impact on economic growth. The report predicts that affected by the rise in international oil prices, the consumer price index (CPI) will further increase, depressing consumer confidence.
According to reports, the basis for KDI to judge the easing of the economic downturn in South Korea is the improvement of semiconductor production. In August, semiconductor production increased by 8.3% year-on-year and 13.4% month-on-month, leading to a 5.5% increase in industrial production.
According to the report, the decline in semiconductor exports narrowed (-13.6 percent), and most items such as automobiles (9.5 percent) and general machinery (9.8 percent) increased, which eased the decline in exports in September. In the same month, the CPI increased by a larger rate (3.7%), but the overall price growth gradually slowed down.