This week, the European and American stock markets rose across the board, with the German DAX index and the European STOXX50 index both rising by over 2%. The Nasdaq index rose nearly 6%, the S&P 500 index rose over 4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose over 2%.
As of the closing of the latest trading day, the top 13 stocks by market capitalization on NASDAQ have all risen. The "Seven sisters" Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Google-A, Meta and Tesla rose 0.76%, 7.19%, 15.83%, 8.81%, 4.47%, 4.87% and 9.28% respectively this week, and their market values increased by $25.543 billion, $214.74 billion, $399.103 billion, $158.483 billion, $78.832 billion, $61.601 billion and $62.487 billion, respectively, with a total increase of $100.8 billion (710 trillion yuan).
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In addition, AI chip giant Broadcom rose over 22% this week, surpassing Tesla in market value.
This week, Oracle's cumulative increase was 14.26%, with a total market value of $449 billion, an increase of $56 billion this week. In this situation, Oracle founder Ellison's personal net worth surpassed Zuckerberg to become the third largest in the world, and on May 1st this week, he surpassed Bezos to become the second largest, second only to Musk.
According to Forbes' real-time billionaire list, Ellison's latest net worth is $197.7 billion, ranking third in the world, and he is still expected to compete with Bezos for second place with $204.4 billion. And Musk's net worth is $252.8 billion, still ranking first.
This week, Oracle released its financial report showing that for the first quarter of the 2025 fiscal year ending in August, Oracle's revenue exceeded expectations by 7% year-on-year to $13.3 billion. Among them, the highly anticipated Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) revenue was also stronger than Wall Street's expectations, increasing by 45% year-on-year to $2.2 billion. The second quarter revenue guidance provided by Oracle ranges from 8% to 10%, with a median growth rate higher than analysts' expectations of 8.72%.
On the news front, according to Xinhua Finance, on September 13th local time, Timislaus published an article stating that the Federal Reserve is in a "rate cut dilemma". Although a 25 basis point rate cut is still a safe choice, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut still exists. If the Federal Reserve expects a rate cut of 100 basis points within the year, why not cut 50 basis points in September, but wait until November or December to increase the rate cut.
Timislaus cited Jon Faust, a senior advisor to Powell who stepped down earlier this year, in his article, stating that for the Fed's decision next week, a 25 basis point or 50 basis point rate cut is actually a very close choice.
Timilus stated that according to Foster's view, although the economic situation in the United States does not require a 50 basis point rate cut for the first time, it is more inclined to start with a 50 basis point rate cut, and the FOMC may also consider it in this way.
Foster also mentioned that the Federal Reserve can reduce the panic that the first 50 basis points drop may cause in the market through expectation management. On the same day, former third in command of the Federal Reserve and former New York Fed President Bill Dudley also stated at the annual Future Financial Forum in Singapore that the reason for the Fed's 50 basis point interest rate cut in September is very strong. Dudley believes that from the slowdown in the US labor market, the Federal Reserve has a reason to cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week. The risks facing the US job market outweigh the challenges of inflation.
At present, futures data linked to the Federal Reserve's policy rate show that traders expect the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points to rise to about 47%, while the probability of Thursday's expected 50 basis point rate cut is only about 28%.
According to the Daily Economic News, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated on Thursday (September 12) that it is appropriate for the Federal Reserve to initiate the long-awaited monetary easing cycle at next week's meeting, given that the risk of rising inflation has subsided.
IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack stated at a regular press conference that the US economy is expected to slow down for the remainder of this year. The IMF expects the core PCE in the United States to drop to 2.5% by the end of the year and return to the Federal Reserve's target of 2% by mid-2025. Although the upward risk of inflation has decreased, it has not completely disappeared. The Federal Reserve still needs to continue adjusting the speed and degree of interest rate cuts based on future economic data
Torsten Slk, partner and chief economist of Apollo Global Management, a US asset management company, also agrees with this.
He pointed out in an interview with reporters that although this is not his "baseline situation", the biggest risk for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates at this point in time is indeed that the rate cut will lead to a rebound in inflation - if the Fed cuts interest rates too quickly while the economy is still strong, both inflation and GDP may be pushed at the same time.