IPhone sales fall short of expectations
Brothers and sisters, happy Mid Autumn Festival, and simply watch the US stocks tonight.
Apple's stock price drops sharply
On the evening of the 16th, after the opening of the US stock market, Apple's stock price plummeted by more than 3%.
On the news front, well-known Apple analyst Guo Mingchi wrote in a report that there are reports that the demand for the new iPhone 16 is lower than expected and has decreased by 12% compared to the first weekend sales of iPhone 15 last year.
Based on the latest supply chain survey and pre order results on Apple's official website, Guo Mingchi has obtained the following key data for iPhone 16 pre order models during the first weekend, including pre order sales volume and average waiting time for shipment.
Guo Mingchi analyzed that the estimated pre order sales of iPhone 16 series in the first weekend were about 37 million units, a decrease of about 12.7% compared to the first weekend sales of iPhone 15 series last year. The key reason is that the iPhone 16 Pro series was lower than expected.
The shipment time of the iPhone 16 Pro series is significantly lower than that of the 15 Pro series. In addition to an increase in stock before pre order, the key reason for the decrease in sales over the first weekend is that demand was lower than expected.
Guo Mingchi said that one of the possible key reasons for the lower than expected demand for the iPhone 16 Pro series is that the biggest selling point, Apple Intelligence, cannot be launched together with the release of the iPhone 16. In addition, fierce competition in the Chinese market continues to affect demand for iPhones.
The first weekend sales of iPhone 16 Plus and Standard Edition both increased year-on-year, but the overall iPhone shipment assistance was limited.
Guo Mingchi said that although pre orders for the iPhone 16 Pro series decreased year-on-year in the first weekend, the production plan of the supply chain should not change much in the short term. Apple still has the opportunity to improve sales by releasing Apple Intelligence and subsequent peak season promotions (year-end peak season in Europe and America and Double Eleven in China), which is also the focus of observing changes in iPhone demand in the future.
Guo Mingchi stated that if the release of Apple Intelligence in the fourth quarter and peak season promotions have limited impact on iPhone 16 shipments, he believes that Apple will have a more aggressive product strategy in 2025 to boost demand.
Analysts from Barclays, JPMorgan, and Bank of America also mentioned in their reports to investors that the demand for the latest iPhone Pro models is lower compared to last year.
According to our conversations with distributors and analysis of pre order data from major Chinese e-commerce websites, the total pre order volume has decreased year-on-year in the past few days, and the proportion of Pro models is relatively low. We have learned that the number of Pro models has decreased by double digits year-on-year, while the base and Plus models have increased year-on-year
Barclays analysts also added that the Chinese version of Apple Intelligence "will not be released until 2025, which may weaken early enthusiasm for the iPhone 16. Weak macroeconomic conditions and competition continue to drag down iPhone sales in China. Analysts also mentioned that in order to promote the sales of iPhone 15 in China, Apple had to rely on significant discounts.
When tracking the delivery cycle of key markets as a demand indicator, JPMorgan analysts pointed out that "early delivery times showed that demand for the iPhone 16 base model was on par with the iPhone 15 series in the first week (pre order week), while early demand indicators for the Pro model were slightly weaker compared to the iPhone 15 series
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points this week has exceeded 50%
On the evening of the 16th, traders once again believed that Federal Reserve policy makers were more likely to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at this week's meeting, rather than 25 basis points.
According to CME's Federal Reserve Watch tool, the market currently expects the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points to rise to 61%, up from last week's 30%.
The Federal Reserve will embark on a crucial turning point this week, with the first interest rate cut in four years aimed at achieving a rare soft landing for the US economy.
With inflation seemingly under control and a sluggish US labor market, officials generally expect to lower benchmark loan rates by at least 25 basis points when the two-day meeting ends on Wednesday. Traders, economists at JPMorgan, and former New York Fed President William Dudley are even preparing for a larger 50 basis point rate cut.
The November presidential election also put the Federal Reserve's decision-making in an awkward position. Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump warned that the Federal Reserve should not cut interest rates before the vote, while Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren pressured officials to lower rates by 75 basis points.
In addition, the three major indexes of the US stock market fluctuated tonight, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting a historic high at one point during trading.
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