After four days of chaos for the AI (Artificial Intelligence) industry, experts began analyzing how OpenAI's farce would affect its largest shareholder and partner, Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT).
On the evening of November 20th local time, after the sudden dismissal of the former CEO by the board, pressure from investors and employees on the board, the possibility of the former CEO and former CEO joining Microsoft, the company welcoming a new CEO, and over 95% of employees jointly demanding the board to step down, OpenAI's "coup drama" once again stopped in the negotiation stage.
According to foreign media reports, OpenAI's management is engaged in a "tense discussion" with former CEO Sam Altman and new CEO Emmett Shear, attempting to unify divided employees, but it is expected that the results will not be released before the morning of the 21st local time.
On the evening of the 19th, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella just handed out an "olive branch" to Ultraman and former OpenAI president Greg Brockman, inviting them to join Microsoft and lead a new senior AI research team. However, this invitation seems to be still in the "waiting stage".
In an interview with foreign media on the 20th, Nadella also stated that no matter where Ultraman ultimately chooses to go, Microsoft will support his and his team's work, and stated that OpenAI's management style "clearly needs to make some changes".
Microsoft's stock price rose 2.05% on the 20th to close at $377.44.
Microsoft's initiative to invite Ultraman and others may seem very sudden, but it is actually logical. Analysis suggests that even if Ultraman and Brockman ultimately do not join Microsoft, Microsoft will likely take this opportunity to reshape its relationship with OpenAI.
Richard Windsor, founder of digital research firm Radio Free Mobile, pointed out that inviting Ultraman and others to join Microsoft may simply be Microsoft's "loss control".
According to information previously disclosed by foreign media, Microsoft's total investment in OpenAI may reach 13 billion US dollars starting from 2019. Windsor believes that a significant portion of the value of this huge investment is closely linked to the company's founders and internal engineers. The sudden high-level earthquake of OpenAI is definitely not what Microsoft is happy to see, and timely stopping losses is the best strategy.
Windsor also pointed out that once Ultraman joins Microsoft, Mira Murati, who had previously been rumored to be hiring him and Brockman and served as the interim CEO of OpenAI for three days, is likely to follow him, and Murati is crucial to OpenAI's product development, leaving "not much for OpenAI" by then.
Windsor also emphasized that no matter how the farce ultimately ended, OpenAI's reputation and credibility had already been greatly damaged.
In the eyes of other analysts, Microsoft's initiative to actively recruit veteran OpenAI employees is a "good move".
Rishi Jaluria, Director of Software Equity Research at RBC Capital Markets, stated that if Ultraman and others join Microsoft, it can be said that "Microsoft has acquired OpenAI without being involved in antitrust charges.
Jarulia believes that this storm is likely to reshape the partnership between Microsoft and OpenAI, making everyone, including Microsoft, aware, Microsoft doesn't even have a board seat in a company that is so important to itself: "I wouldn't be surprised if Microsoft hopes to have more voice and control over this company after this. Without a doubt, their fate in the AI field is closely linked to OpenAI
Dan Ives, a technical analyst at securities firm Wedbush Securities, wrote in an analysis on Monday that the OpenAI controversy is simply a "circus clown show, The four OpenAI board members who dismissed Ultraman thought they had won a game of children's poker until Nadella and Microsoft entered, winning everything with World Poker Master level operations, while the entire Silicon Valley and Wall Street were watching nervously.
Regarding Microsoft's AI prospects, Ives is very confident: "We believe that if Ultraman and Brockman lead AI related teams at Microsoft, Microsoft's position in the AI field will become stronger
Ben Thompson, a blogger and analyst at the renowned technology blog Stratchery, also stated that after Ultraman joins Microsoft, they will take the lead in the entire AI field, and Microsoft, which owns intellectual property rights, "will soon have a team that combines its funding and infrastructure, while getting rid of coordination issues that were inevitable in previous collaborations with OpenAI.
Of course, everything depends on the subsequent development of this grand play.