The future of Democratic presidential candidate Harris seems bright. According to the latest forecast, Harris' approval rating across the United States is 48.4%, leading Trump's 46.9%, and more and more states that previously leaned towards the Republican Party are starting to show signs of wavering, further highlighting Harris' strength.
This also led Wall Street to readjust its bets. Zacks Investment Management's client portfolio manager Brian Mulberry stated that the most likely outcome in the short term is increased volatility, leading to pricing anomalies, but this also presents an opportunity for active investors to rebalance election risks.
Goldman Sachs' index tracking election trading strategies shows that when Harris took over Biden, the Democratic Party began to perform better than the Republican Party. UBS directly pointed out that Harris' victory but a split in Congress is the most likely election outcome.
This shift directly led to the decline of the 'Trump deal', with many industries and companies deeply tied to Trump being repriced in the stock market. At the same time, Harris also boosted new deals.
Absolute advantage has not yet emerged
The showdown between Trump and Biden has propelled gun manufacturers Sturm Ruger and Smith& The stock prices of Wesson Brands and private prison operator GEO have risen.
The stock prices of these companies all hit recent highs in July, just after Trump and Biden finished their impressive televised debate. However, the good times did not last long. The prices of these stocks have now fallen back to normal levels, and the positive effects brought by Trump have almost been eliminated.
Matthew Tuttle, Chief Investment Officer and Founder of Tuttle Tactical Management, stated that the President will not affect the overall market, but will impact certain industries.
Compared to Trump, Harris' inauguration will clearly benefit renewable energy companies and their upstream and downstream, including electric vehicle manufacturers and utility companies, which is very different from Trump's reliance on the traditional energy industry.
In addition, Harris is more moderate in tariffs and trade policies, which means that any industry heavily dependent on the Asian economy may experience a mitigating rebound. Wall Street believes that Harris' victory represents the minimization of White House policy interference in business, which is the most desirable outcome for the industry.
However, the volatility caused by Harris is not as significant as the previous Trump deal, ultimately because Harris did not completely defeat Trump's absolute advantage. Therefore, more investors and strategists tend to adopt a wait-and-see approach rather than locking in positions in advance.
Eric Diton, President and Managing Director of Fortune Alliance, said that Trump's deal was very reasonable when Biden ran for office, as Biden's approval rating was steadily declining. But now with Harris, although her momentum is strong, the situation is still tense, and this is a game that no one can say for sure.