This week, the three major indexes of the US stock market collectively fell slightly. Although the weekly decline may not seem significant, this is already the most volatile week in the market since 2024.
Analysis suggests that a series of unexpected economic data, combined with arbitrage trades triggered by the yen, led to the most severe sell-off in the stock market this year, followed by the recovery of most of the losses due to "initial requests". Compared to before, data reporting has never become so important this year.
Liz Young Thomas, Head of Investment Strategy at SoFi, has stated that the phenomenon of initial reports driving up the stock market indicates that the market will be more sensitive to all upcoming data releases. "This also tells us that when we receive conflicting data, we will see more market volatility
Looking ahead to next week, the most significant data will undoubtedly be the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) report before Wednesday's trading session, as well as retail sales on Thursday known as the "terrifying data". On Tuesday, PPI (Producer Price Index) will also provide guidance on inflationary pressures.
Shortly before the press release, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bauman stated that the inflation rate is still far above the committee's 2% target and there is an upward risk, which is concerning. Bauman mentioned, "I will continue to be cautious when considering adjustments to the current policy stance
Economists from financial services company Investec said, "Last month's CPI report showed an encouraging decline in housing cost pressures in the United States, and if this downward trend continues, it will help inflation return to the 2.0% target
In other regions, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Norwegian central bank will successively announce interest rate decisions, and Japan will also release its GDP report for the second quarter. Recently, it is the soaring yen that has led to a cluster of arbitrage trades closing positions, causing a huge shock in the financial market.
In addition, the monthly crude oil market reports from OPEC and IEA, speeches from several Federal Reserve officials, and Musk's interview with Trump are also worth looking forward to. In recent weeks, Trump has been able to make astonishing statements, such as this week when he stated that the president should have some say in monetary policy.
With nearly three months left until the official US election on November 5th, this year has already been the most dramatic in recent years. Gabelli Funds executives expect market volatility to intensify during the election period, while potential stock market rotation will continue.
In terms of financial reports, Home Depot and Wal Mart deserve attention. Generally speaking, hypermarkets located at the end of the commodity supply chain may have a more tangible understanding of whether inflation is accelerating or slowing down. China Concept shares include Alibaba and JD, two Internet giants.
Overview of Important Overseas Economic Events Next Week (Beijing Time):
Monday (August 12th): OPEC releases monthly crude oil market report, US New York Fed's one-year inflation forecast for July, Trump's heavyweight interview with Musk
Tuesday (August 13th): IEA releases monthly crude oil market report, Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment index for August, US NFIB small business confidence index for July, US PPI annual rate for July
Wednesday (August 14th): Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on the economy, New Zealand Fed announces interest rate decision and monetary policy statement, UK July CPI monthly rate, Eurozone Q2 GDP annual rate correction, US July non seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate, US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending August 9th
Thursday (August 15th): Initial annual value of Japan's Q2 GDP deflator, seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Australia in July, revised Q2 GDP annual rate in the UK, initial jobless claims for the week ending August 10th in the US, monthly retail sales rate in July, August New York Fed manufacturing index, August Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, July import price index, St. Louis Fed President Moses Lem's speech on US economic and monetary policy, July industrial output rate in the US, August NAHB housing market index in the US, and June commercial inventory rate in the US
Friday (August 16th): Philadelphia Fed President Huck delivers a speech, Eurozone June seasonally adjusted trade account, annualized total new home construction in July, initial value of Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index in August