There is an ongoing debate about how many houses there are in China, and how many are empty.
In fact, in recent years, many institutions have released relevant research reports, such as the 2017 CICC "Number of China's housing stock" said: at the end of 2017, China's urban broad and narrow housing vacancy rates were 16.9% and 12.1%, including 14.7% and 9.7% in urban areas.
The Southwest University of Finance and Economics' 2017 Analysis of China's Urban Housing vacancy said that the housing vacancy rate in China's urban areas was 21.4% in 2017.
In August last year, a housing vacancy survey report by the Shell Research Institute brought people's attention back to the topic of housing vacancy rate.
28 cities have an average vacancy rate of 12%
In August last year, the Shell Research Institute announced the housing vacancy survey of 28 large and medium-sized cities in China, the results show that Nanchang, capital of Jiangxi Province, ranked first among the 28 large and medium-sized cities surveyed in the housing vacancy rate, reaching 20%, that is to say, Nanchang has one-fifth of the sold housing stock in a vacant state. In second place is Langfang, Hebei province, with a vacancy rate of 19 percent.
Shell reported that for the survey of the community within its business scope, defined the housing unoccupied for more than 3 months as "vacant housing" , and set the number of vacant households/total number of households as the urban housing vacancy rate.
According to the report, the average housing vacancy rate in 28 large and medium-sized cities in China is 12%, which is relatively high.
The housing vacancy rate increases with the level of cities, with an average of 7% in first-tier cities, 12% in second-tier cities, and 16% in third-tier cities. Among them, only 9 cities have vacancy rates within the reasonable range, most cities are between 10% and 15%, and 6 cities are above 15%.
Photo Credit: Shell Research Institute
By city, Shenzhen, Beijing and Shanghai have the lowest vacancy rates, all below 7%. Most cities such as Xi 'an, Zhengzhou, Kunming, Hefei and Wuxi are between 10% and 15%. Nanchang, Langfang, Foshan housing vacancy rate is relatively high, are more than 15%.
Shell believes that the regional differences in housing vacancy rates directly reflect the potential of the real estate market. Generally speaking, the vacancy rate is reasonable between 5% and 10%, and below this range, the vacancy rate is considered to be too low, indicating that the housing demand is strong and the potential demand is high. Above 10%, the vacancy rate is considered too high, indicating an oversupply of housing and the risk of inventory overhang.
Shell Research Institute said that the statistics only selected the sold stock of housing, compared with other statistical caliber, the vacancy rate is low.
In fact, there are broad and narrow definitions of vacancy rate.
The broad vacancy rate refers to as long as the house is unoccated at a certain time , the houses under renovation and uninhabitable dilapidated houses are all regarded as vacant, and the vacancy rate tends to be overestimated.
The narrow vacancy rate will be renovated houses, dangerous houses, etc., from the broad vacancy deduction , the method is more scientific and reasonable.
How to define uninhabited, and the duration of uninhabited, has become the key to the statistics of vacancy rate.
The implementation standards of each country or region are also not small differences
The United States will include vacation houses, weekend houses and mobile homes in the scope of empty housing statistics; In Japan, an empty house is defined as one that has not been inhabited for a long time and has not used running water or electricity for five consecutive years. Vancouver, Canada, defines an unoccupied room as being unoccupied for 25 days a month or four months a year. China's Hong Kong will be renovated housing is also included in the scope of empty housing statistics.
From January to August, the area of commercial housing sales fell by 7.1% year-on-year
Investment in real estate development fell 8.8% in the first eight months of this year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The sales area of commercial housing in China was 739.49 million square meters, down 7.1% year on year; The sales volume of commercial housing was 7,815.8 billion yuan, down 3.2%.
On September 15, the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in August, the number of 70 large and medium-sized cities with a rise in the sales price of commercial housing decreased, the sales price of commercial housing in various cities fell month-on-month and rose or fell year-on-year.
Among them, the decline in the second-hand housing market is more obvious. In August, the sales prices of second-hand residential houses in first - and second-tier cities fell by 1.6% and 3.0% year-on-year, 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points higher than the previous month. Second-hand residential sales prices in third-tier cities fell 3.5 per cent from a year earlier, the same decline as the previous month.
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