Is the US economy expected to fall into recession in the fourth quarter? Gross, the "Old Bond King," suggests investing in this way
王骏
发表于 2023-10-25 16:02:28
4165
0
0
Legendary investor Bill Gross, known as the "old debt king," recently announced on X (formerly Twitter) that the US economic recession will hit in the fourth quarter. He suggests investors to invest in yield curves, futures and stock arbitrage linked to the Guaranteed Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR).
The difficulties faced by regional banks and the recent rise in default rates on car loans to long-term historical highs indicate a significant slowdown in the US economy, with a recession expected in the fourth quarter, "he wrote.
Fitch Ratings previously reported that in September, 6.11% of subprime borrowers defaulted on car loans within 60 days, setting a record proportion, and the car recovery rate also significantly increased.
During his tenure at Pacific Investment Management (PIMCO), Gross helped operate the world's largest public fund and earned the nickname of "debt king". After leaving PIMCO, Gross switched to Junley Henderson Group, but there, Gross experienced a career 'Waterloo' where his managed Junley Henderson Global Unrestricted Bond Fund performed poorly. In March 2019, Gross announced his retirement, but has continued to pay attention to the financial market and frequently express his latest views on the market.
When discussing investment advice in the current context, Gross stated that he is "seriously considering" investing in regional banking stocks that have fallen significantly this year. Exchange Traded Fund SPDR S& The P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) has fallen by over 30% so far this year.
In addition, Gross also talked about some M&A arbitrage transactions. He also suggested that investors bet that the yield curve of US treasury bond bonds would continue to become steeper, and the yield curve is expected to break through the negative area for the first time in more than a year. After the long-term yield rose, it was close to catching up with the short-term yield, and the difference between the 10-year US Treasury yield and the two-year US Treasury yield on Monday was within 30 basis points.
According to Dow Jones Market Data, the 10-year US Treasury yield has been lower than the two-year US Treasury yield for 327 consecutive days, the longest duration since the 444 trading days ending on May 1, 1980.
Gross said he is betting on steepening the yield curve through interest rate futures. He expects that as the economic slowdown forces investors to adjust their expectations for the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the yield curve will once again enter a positive zone by the end of this year.
'Maintaining high interest rates for a longer period of time' has become the 'curse of yesterday', 'he said.
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
猜你喜欢
- Financial Report Horizontal Review | "Weixiaoli" Third Quarter Report Released: Ideal Automobile Continuously Profits for Four Seasons NIO and Xiaopeng Take Multiple Measures to Reduce Costs and Increase Efficiency
- CEO of Dongwu Securities: Optimistic about the performance of the growth sector! The US economy may decline in 2024
- Be cautious in your actions! CEO of Xiaomo: Financial and geopolitical risks will impact the US economy in the next two years
- The fourth quarter performance of fiscal year 2023 is lower than expected. Levi's parent company will lay off 10% to 15% of employees in the first half of the year
- Mingchuang Youpin's revenue increased by 54% in the fourth quarter of 2023
- The gross profit of awesome famous and innovative products in overseas markets and fashion games reached 43% in the fourth quarter of last year
- BOSS Direct Recruitment's Q4 and Full Year Financial Reports Release: US Stocks Rise 18.8%
- Futu Holdings announces its fourth quarter and full year performance for 2023: accelerating the internationalization process of expanding overseas business and entering a new stage
- Is it feared that the US stock market will repeat the 2022 bear market? Apollo Chief Warning: If the Fed does not cut interest rates again, the US economy will have a hard landing
- Is the Federal Reserve hesitant to cut interest rates? Moody's Chief Warning: The US economy will inevitably collapse
-
9月が終わり、映画・テレビ業界が暗躍している。最近、愛奇芸の創始者でCEOのGONG宇氏は、映画・テレビ業界が長短の変化、AIの変化、中国映画・テレビドラマの海外進出の変化の3つの変化を経験していると発表した。 ...
- 寒郁轩良
- 5 小时前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
8月のトヨタ自動車(ダイハツ自動車と日野自動車を除く、レクサスを含む)の世界生産台数は前年同月比11.2%減の709571台、世界販売台数は前年同月比3.1%減の826863台だった。 日本本土市場では、トヨタ自動車の8月 ...
- SOGO
- 前天 18:03
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
ネットワーク状況監視サイトDownDetectorによると、オーディオストリーミングプラットフォームSpotifyは日曜日に約3時間にわたる障害を経験した後、正常に回復し、ピーク時には米国の4万人以上のユーザーに影響を与 ...
- hecgdge4
- 10 小时前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
百済神州(688235.SH)はA株の有名な革新薬企業で、2017-2024年上半期、同社の各期の研究開発投資はA株の化学製薬会社(申万二級)の中で最も高く、研究開発費用は合計600億元を超えた。 しかし、百済神州にとって ...
- wylz8473
- 昨天 18:36
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏