The rare decline in sales of the iPhone 15 series seems to have been overcome by Apple, which has once again become the darling of the capital market. As of the closing of the US stock market on December 14th, Apple's stock price has risen 0.08% to close at $198.11 per share, with a total market value of approximately $3.08 trillion. At one point during the trading session, it reached a historic high of $199.62, firmly holding the world's number one position.
However, due to the impact of the overall trend of the consumer electronics industry and the combination of other factors, Apple's market value began to decline significantly in early August after breaking through $3 trillion for the first time in July this year. On August 4th local time, there was a gap of short selling and falling, and it closed at $181.506 per share on the same day. During the following period, Apple's stock price fluctuated continuously. But since early November, Apple's stock price has shown signs of continuous warming, and the continuation of this momentum has also brought Apple's total market value back to above $3 trillion on December 5th local time. Based on recent market performance, Apple shows signs of stabilizing at $3 trillion.
However, not long ago, Apple was also facing a situation of weak performance. According to Apple's financial report data disclosed in early November, in the fourth quarter of the 2023 fiscal year, Apple achieved a revenue of $89.498 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of revenue decline. Specifically, except for the iPhone, the revenue of all hardware products has shown a downward trend. In this fiscal quarter, Mac revenue reached $7.614 billion, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 30%, and iPad revenue reached $6.443 billion, compared to $7.174 billion in the same period last year; The revenue from wearable devices, home furnishings, and accessories business reached $9.322 billion, compared to $9.65 billion in the same period last year.
As Apple's flagship product, although the iPhone is the only hardware sector that has grown this fiscal quarter, it is difficult to say that this is not directly related to the rare price reduction operation. During this year's "Double Eleven" period in the Chinese market, all iPhone 15 series products have started a price reduction strategy on e-commerce platforms. According to incomplete statistics by Blue Whale Finance reporters, the highest reduction can reach nearly a thousand yuan, and offline distributors have also started to reduce prices for sales. The reason for the price reduction is also due to weak sales of new machines. According to Counterpoint Research, the sales of iPhone 15 in China decreased by 4.5% in the first two weeks after its release compared to the sales of iPhone 14.
This is somewhat related to the overall sluggish performance of consumer electronics, as well as the impact of the return of Huawei Mate 60 series.
In addition to market performance, Apple is also facing some adjustments internally. According to Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman on December 9th, Tang Tan, the current Vice President of Apple Design responsible for the iPhone and Apple Watch, will resign in February next year, leading to a restructuring of the company's most critical product line. In addition, there are rumors of Steve Hotelling, who was responsible for key technologies such as the iPhone's multi touch screen, Touch ID, and Face ID.
But based on the signals recently released by Apple to the outside world, there are already signs of reversing this trend.
Apple's first generation MR (mixed reality) product, Vision Pro, will also make new progress in December. Interface News reported on November 28th that Apple will officially mass produce the first generation Vision Pro in December this year, with the first batch of around 400000 units in stock. The sales target for 2024 is 1 million units, and the third year will reach 10 million units; The hardware cost is approximately $1700. In addition, according to foreign media reports, the second generation Vision Pro will begin sampling in the second quarter of 2024, and according to the schedule, it is expected to be released as early as the second half of 2025; And Apple is also synchronously developing AR glasses. The second generation of Apple's Vision Pro will have four models, two of which have been confirmed: one will be targeted at the high-end market like the first generation, and the other will be a budget version. Apple's goal is to compress the BOM (Bill of Materials) cost of the budget version to 50% of the first generation product.
According to data from multiple market research institutions, consumer electronics is about to enter a recovery period in 2024. Counterpoint previously released a report stating that global smartphone shipments are expected to increase by 3% year-on-year in 2024, and the recovery in emerging markets will be more pronounced; Canalys predicts that the global smartphone market will rebound by 2024, with shipments reaching 1.17 billion units, a 4% increase from 2023; The PC shipment volume is expected to increase by 8% year-on-year to 267 million units in 2024. In addition, at 2am Beijing time on December 14th, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the target range of the federal funds rate at 5.25% -5.5% unchanged, marking the fourth time the Federal Reserve has suspended interest rate hikes in this cycle.
The restructuring of key products and the upcoming mass production of Vision Pro, combined with the favorable macro environment, make it reasonable for Apple's stock price to rise along with the trend, as investors better understand and focus on future interests.
In addition to hardware product adjustments, according to Apple's financial report, the service business unit showed a strong growth trend, achieving a revenue of $22.314 billion in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 16.29%, accounting for nearly 40% of the overall revenue structure. BofA Securities analyst Wamsi Mohan has stated that according to SensorTower data, Apple's App Store revenue has increased by approximately 11% in the first quarter so far. The revenue of app stores in the Chinese market increased by 8% year-on-year in November, and by 10% year-on-year in October. The strong data of app stores in September, October, and November is a positive sign for Apple's performance.
That is to say, software services have undergone changes in Apple's revenue structure, and starting this year, Apple's subscription services have started to increase in price. It is reported that in October this year, Apple announced price adjustments for its subscription services such as Apple Music, Apple News, and Apple TV+overseas, with a general increase of 10-15%. On December 10th, Apple's official website showed that Apple Music China has raised subscription prices, with student subscription prices increasing by 1 to 6 yuan/month, individual subscription prices increasing by 1 to 11 yuan/month, and home subscription prices increasing by 1 to 17 yuan/month. According to JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee's estimate, the total number of users for Apple Music and Apple Arcade may reach approximately 180 million by 2025, with 110 million users paying for the company's music services and 70 million users paying for games. These will all contribute to Apple's revenue growth in the coming quarters.