Driven by market bets that the Federal Reserve will soon begin cutting interest rates as inflation slows down, technology stocks have generally risen.
As of the close of trading on the 13th US time, Apple's stock price reached a historic high, rising 1.7% to $197.96, with a market value of approximately $3.08 trillion.
Since the beginning of this year, Apple's stock price has risen by 52%, consolidating its position as the world's highest market value company. In July of this year, Apple's market value exceeded $3 trillion for the first time, making it the world's first company with a market value exceeding $3 trillion.
At 2am Beijing time on December 14th, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25% -5.5%, the highest point in 22 years, in line with market expectations. This is the fourth time the Federal Reserve has suspended interest rate hikes in this cycle, previously in June, September, and November. Since the Federal Reserve initiated this round of interest rate hikes in March 2022, the cumulative rate hike has reached 525 basis points, and the December interest rate resolution implies that the rate hike cycle has reached its end.
Two Federal Reserve officials predicted that the federal funds rate for 2024 would remain at 5.25% -5.5%, while 17 Federal Reserve officials predicted that the rate would fall below 5.25%, with one person predicting it would fall below 4%. The median expectation of 4.6% interest rates means that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates three times next year.
In the past month, Apple's share price rose along with other technology stocks, because there were signs that inflation in the United States was cooling, the economy was still flexible, and the yield of treasury bond bonds fell.
In addition to the macroeconomic impact, it is predicted that the recovery of consumer electronics will also boost Apple's performance. Wall Street analysts predict that demand for smartphones, laptops, and computers will rebound in 2024, which will accelerate Apple's revenue growth again in 2024.
In addition, Apple will release its first MR product, Vision Pro, in the first quarter of next year. According to media reports, Apple will officially mass produce the first generation MR product Vision Pro in December, with the first batch of approximately 400000 units in stock. The sales target for 2024 is 1 million units.
The report from CITIC Securities believes that after a three-year downward cycle of capital expenditure in the consumer electronics industry, the industry's prosperity is expected to rebound in 2024. Since the third quarter of 2023, with the launch of new products by brands such as Apple and Huawei, the decline in global smartphone shipments has narrowed to 1%. The mobile phone market is expected to usher in a new round of recovery in 2024, and device companies are expected to receive new orders in the first half of 2024; In addition, titanium materials (including machine tools and 3D printing), XR, OLED, and machine vision are expected to bring structural opportunities.