CICC: It is not advisable to have excessive expectations for US monetary easing. First rate cut or next September
教们边束千
发表于 2023-11-15 12:59:36
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Securities Times E-Company News: CICC pointed out that the US CPI in October was 3.2% year-on-year, while the core CPI was 4.0% year-on-year, which is lower than the market and our expectations. Despite the rebound in medical insurance prices due to statistical reasons, the weak growth rate of prices such as gasoline, rent, second-hand cars, and hotels has allowed overall inflation to decline. In the short term, a slowdown in inflation means a decrease in the need for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, an increase in hopes of a soft landing for the US economy, an improvement in investor risk appetite, and a rebound in previously adjusted assets. However, it is not advisable to have excessive expectations for US monetary easing. Our benchmark scenario is for the Federal Reserve to maintain its current interest rate level in the first half of next year, and to shift to a rate cut in the second half of the year, with the first rate cut likely in September next year.
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