Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida launched a three-day visit to Southeast Asia in early November. Experts point out that the launch of military assistance talks between Japan and the Philippines is based on the framework of the United States' allies, and Japan's strengthened security support for Southeast Asia is an attempt to maintain its maritime strategic lifeline.
The impact of Japan Philippines RAA on deterring or stimulating China is uncertain
Kishida Wenxiong visited the Philippines and Malaysia from November 3rd to 5th. This is Kishida's first visit to these two countries since taking office as Prime Minister.
On November 3rd, during talks with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in Manila, in order to deter China from strengthening military activities in the East and South China Seas, the leaders of Japan and the Philippines agreed to initiate negotiations on the Mutual Access Agreement to facilitate smooth communication between the Self Defense Forces and the Philippine military, and decided to provide coastal surveillance radar to the Philippine army.
If development goes smoothly, the Philippines will be the third country to sign the Mutual Access Agreement (RAA) with Japan after Australia and the United Kingdom, and also the first country in Asia.
The leaders of Japan and the Philippines agreed to strengthen cooperation among the three countries, including the United States, which has formed alliances with each other. In the South China Sea, Chinese ships obstructed the country's supply fleet heading to the Philippine military stronghold, and activities became active. This move by Japan and the Philippines aims to work together to constrain China's movements.
In his first speech to the Philippine Congress on November 4, Kishida pointed out that "the international order is facing a major crisis" in view of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and China's maritime activities.
Ja Ian Chong, a professor of politics at the National University of Singapore, stated in an interview with VOA that Japan's main partners in Asian security cooperation are allies of the United States, and choosing the Philippines to sign the Mutual Access Agreement is also a similar concept. However, international opinions on the impact of Japan Philippines' strengthened security cooperation are inconsistent.
Zhuang Jiaying said, "There are two main views on Japan Philippines cooperation in Asian geopolitics. One view is more pro China, or at least more afraid of China, which may believe that Japan Philippines cooperation may stimulate China and cause instability to rise; the other view is that to cooperate with China, the premise is to effectively deter
Professor Kei Koga from Nanyang Polytechnic University in Singapore pointed out that many people believe that after signing the Mutual Access Agreement, Japan and the Philippines will become a "quasi alliance" defense cooperation relationship, but this is not the case.
He told VOA that although it is generally believed that the coordinated signing between Japan and the Philippines is aimed at China, if there is an emergency situation in Taiwan or other places, it is up to each country to decide on its own actions. On the other hand, one of the current priorities is to develop regulations to make humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) in the Philippines, which is prone to natural disasters, more smooth. Based on this, we will discuss what kind of defense cooperation and policy adjustments can be made to address geopolitical risks.
Gu Heqing believes that unless major geopolitical conflicts occur, there is still a long way to go before Japan and the Philippines form a "quasi alliance" relationship.
Dr. Ye Shilin, Secretary General of the Taiwan US Japan Civil Exchange Association, stated that there are many grievances within the Philippines regarding their long-term alliance with the United States. Former Philippine President Duterte was elected president based on such social emotions. After his election, he showed a willingness to lean towards China and break away from a one-sided policy towards the United States. However, China's gradual progress in the South China Sea dispute has led the Philippines to return to the pro American route after Marcos Jr. took office. He pointed out that the Philippines is now clearly expressing its stance towards China by coordinating the Mutual Access Agreement and discussing deepening military cooperation with Japan.
He told VOA, "The Philippines is aware of China's military threat and, in addition to negotiating a Mutual Access Agreement with Japan, has also proposed with the United States to build a military airport on the Bashu Islands, which are located at the exit Bashu Strait of the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean
Japan and Israel support the security of friendly forces and maintain a strategic lifeline at sea
On November 1st, Kyodo News Agency reported that Japan will for the first time apply the "Official Security Assistance" (OSA) established in April this year to provide coastal surveillance radar to the Philippine military to enhance its capabilities and respond to the rising military situation in the East and South China Seas, thereby helping to improve Japan's security environment.
The connotation of this plan is that Japan will provide similar concept partner defense weapons for free, and Tokyo has selected the Philippines, Malaysia, Bangladesh, and Fiji as recipient countries for OSA in the 2023 fiscal year.
Dr. Ye Shilin, Secretary General of the Taiwan US Japan Association for Private Exchange, pointed out that after the war, Japan's "Official Development Assistance" (ODA) implemented for developing countries could only provide economic or technical assistance beyond military capabilities. However, Japan's efforts to promote ODA have identified many blind spots over the years.
He stated that although China has long received interest free development loans from Japan and has not directly used them for military purposes, the achievements of China's infrastructure development have promoted China's military development, indirectly posing a threat to Japan; Furthermore, there are difficulties in distinguishing between military and non military fields. Airports, harbors, and communication equipment are mainly used for military civilian purposes, making it difficult for Japan to invest in military civilian areas in developing countries, instead allowing other competitors to take the lead.
Ye Qilin believes that the newly launched OSA in April this year not only provides free armed equipment, but also allows Japan to expand its weapons exports and open up a market for Japan's military exports. Therefore, Japan is preparing to negotiate with countries such as Vietnam, Laos, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Singapore, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, etc. to build defense capabilities and even transfer military products. Among them, there are countries with deep ties to China, such as Laos and Cambodia.
He said, "Japan's promotion of the Enhanced Support for Government Security Capability (OSA), in addition to competing with China as strategic partners in ASEAN, Oceania, and South Asia, is also Japan's attempt to maintain its maritime strategic lifeline
Ye Qilin believes that Japan has realized that the preservation and exercise of force are indispensable in defending the international order that is beneficial to it.
Professor Gu Heqing from Nanyang Polytechnic University in Singapore pointed out that the initial purpose of ODA was social and economic development, but now it also includes supporting the Coast Guard and strengthening law enforcement agencies. OSA involves developing countries further strengthening their own security by enhancing their own defense capabilities. He believes that although there are still constitutional restrictions, through the implementation of the OSA, Japan can already be expected to play a more active role in the field of international security in the future.
Professor Zhuang Jiaying from the Department of Political Science at the National University of Singapore stated that such development should continue and be a process of normalization in Japan. Japan will be at this stage not only due to pressure from China, but also due to factors from the United States.
After experiencing the instability of the Trump administration in the United States, Japan believes that it needs to be more proactive in terms of security, "he said
Zhuang Jiaying pointed out that Japan's more active performance in the field of international security can dispel some doubts about Japan's defense awareness in the United States. In essence, if the United States considers reducing its deployment in Asia, Japan still has stronger defense capabilities. He believes that this consideration is also one of the main driving forces for promoting security cooperation between Japan and South Korea.
Japan takes advantage of China's economic recession to increase investment in Malaysia
Malaysia also has territorial issues with China, but also values its relationship with China. On November 5th, Fumio Kishida held talks with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim to discuss promoting defense exchanges and maritime security cooperation.
Dr. Ye Yilin, Secretary General of the Taiwan US Japan Civil Exchange Association, pointed out that during World War II, the local Malays had cooperated with Japan to drive out British colonizers. After Malaysia gained independence, it quickly established diplomatic relations with Japan, and the friendship between the two countries was profound. Malaysia and China were new friends.
He pointed out that there have been many ideological and territorial conflicts between Malaysia and China, but Malaysia has been in a state of corruption and political instability in the past decade. The economy has continued to slide, and funds from China are even more needed. In the past few years, relations with China have indeed heated up, and Japan should take advantage of the recent economic recession in China to increase its efforts to win over Malaysia in all aspects.
In the future, Japan may provide assistance in the biotechnology talent field that the Malaysian government urgently needs to develop. It is also expected that through OSA, Malaysia can provide material assistance in the military civilian and even military fields, slowing down China's investment in Malaysia's infrastructure
Professor Koga Kei from Nanyang Polytechnic University in Singapore believes that Malaysia has always been careful to avoid excessive dependence on a particular country in order to diversify risks. Japan chose Malaysia as the first recipient of OSA, reminding Malaysia to pay more attention to the option of "Japan". He pointed out that the Malaysian Prime Minister has considerable decision-making power, and Kishida should use his meeting with Anwar to discuss and accelerate the process of OSA
Professor Zhuang Jiaying from the Department of Politics at the National University of Singapore stated that in addition to the good post-war relations between Japan and Malaysia, Japan still needs to pass through the Malaysian waters or areas close to the Malaysian waters, such as the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea, for transportation including energy. Therefore, Japan has every reason to work hard on Malaysia to reduce the risk of congestion in these areas.