Shanghai Stock News China Securities Network (Reporter Wang Peng) Global asset management giant Fidelity International stated that Chinese express delivery companies are the main beneficiaries of the booming development of e-commerce in China, but their stock prices have not reflected the rapid increase in express delivery volume. This decoupling phenomenon reminds investors to adapt to the continuously changing economic environment in China.
In China's vast e-commerce ecosystem, the express delivery industry is an indispensable part. Influenced by the online shopping boom, the delivery volume of China's five major express delivery companies has surged and their business has improved. Unlike the United States, despite the continuous growth of China's online shopping market, the stock prices of Chinese express delivery companies were under pressure last year. "Li Jing, Director of Research at Fidelity International, believes that this phenomenon is due to the decline in the average delivery fee (ASP) of China's express delivery industry.
In Li Jing's view, the changes in the express delivery industry also reflect the transformation of Chinese consumers' consumption habits. Against the backdrop of slowing economic growth, household consumption is more focused on cost-effectiveness. This change complements the rapid rise of shopping platforms such as Pinduoduo and Tiktok, which are characterized by high quality and low price. Through live broadcast on these platforms, businesses directly sell products to consumers, indirectly driving the delivery volume and business growth of express companies.
Therefore, investing in the express delivery industry should also be aware of other market factors outside the industry. Various factors along the value chain, from consumers' purchasing power to e-commerce merchants' confidence, may lead to fluctuations in the revenue of express delivery companies during the quarter, "said Li Jing.
Looking ahead to the next few years, Li Jing said that based on past experience, the Chinese express delivery industry is expected to usher in a dawn. In theory, the government will accelerate the integration of highly competitive industries in order to promote the shift from high growth industries to high-quality growth. The market share of the top five express delivery companies in China is around 10% -20%, while the US market has been integrated into the three leading companies of UPS, FedEx, and USPS. Once the industry reaches a turning point of consolidation, the stock prices of leading companies in China's express delivery industry are expected to quickly rebound, bringing returns to investors.