On August 8th, Eli Lilly released its second quarter financial report, achieving global revenue of $11.3028 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36%; The total revenue for the first half of the year was 20.0708 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 31%.
The sales exceeded expectations, and Lilly raised its annual revenue forecast by $3 billion, which means it increased its annual revenue forecast from $42.4-436 billion to $45.4-466 billion.
Specifically, in the second quarter of this year, Lilly's Mouniaro, a tilporide type 2 diabetes indication, achieved sales of 3.091 billion dollars in the second quarter and 4.897 billion dollars in the first half of the year. Zepbound, an indication for weight loss, achieved sales of $1.243 billion in the second quarter and $1.761 billion in the first half of the year. The total sales of the two products reached 6.657 billion US dollars in the first half of 2024.
You should know that the Mouniaro of Eli Lilly had a sales revenue of 5.163 billion US dollars for the whole year of 2023, and just halfway through this year, Mouniaro's sales have almost caught up with last year's performance. Zepbound was only approved for market by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in November last year, and Lilly also disclosed in its 2023 financial report that Zepbound achieved a record of $175.8 million in its first month of sale.
From the sales figures of the two Tilpotide products mentioned above, it can be seen that the second quarter contributed significantly to the overall performance of the first half of the year, which also means that the growth rate of Tilpotide is still strong. Therefore, Lilly has also raised its profit expectations.
Just the day before, Novo Nordisk also released its financial report for the first half of 2024. The two giants in the field of weight loss drugs have announced their performance, and the market is also comparing the two.
From the perspective of Novo Nordisk's performance, in the first half of 2024, the sales of Smeglutide type 2 diabetes indication injection preparation Ozempic, oral preparation Rybelsus and weight loss indication injection preparation Wegovy were DKK 56.685 billion (about US $8.29 billion), DKK 10.931 billion (about US $1.60 billion) and DKK 21.036 billion (about US $3.08 billion), with year-on-year growth of 36%, 31% and 74% respectively. Simeglutide has contributed a cumulative performance of $12.9 billion to Novo Nordisk, with a revenue of $19.464 billion in the first half of this year. Simeglutide's sales accounted for two-thirds of the total revenue.
In terms of market share, in the first half of 2024, Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 (glucagon like peptide-1) products (including Smeaglutide and Lilalutide) sales in the field of diabetes totaled DKK 72.017 billion (about US $10.54 billion), with a year-on-year growth of 32%. Its market shares in the world, the United States and China were 56.0%, 53.4% and 79.0% respectively. During the same period, Novo Nordisk's product sales in the obesity field totaled 24.939 billion Danish kroner (approximately 3.64 billion US dollars), a year-on-year increase of 37%, and its global market share exceeded 90%.
Although sales of semaglutide continue to grow in terms of performance, the growth rate is no longer as fast as before. In the first half of 2023, Novo Nordisk's Ozempic, Rybelsus, and Wegovy saw year-on-year growth of 58%, 97%, and 367%, respectively. In the first quarter of 2024, Ozempic, Rybelsus, and Wegovy saw year-on-year growth of 42%, 15%, and 106%, respectively. Visually, the growth rate of semaglutide has slowed down.
Therefore, Novo Nordisk has also lowered its full year profit forecast, stating that it expects a growth rate between 20% and 28%, slightly lower than the previously expected range of 22% to 30%. On August 7th, Novo Nordisk's stock price fell by over 8%.
The fluctuating annual profit expectations of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk actually reflect many issues. But Novo Nordisk's semaglutide is still considered the most likely product to become the next king of drugs. The annual sales of Yaowang Xiumeile (from AbbVie) in 2022 and Yaowang Keruida (commonly known as "K-drug", from Merck) in 2023 were $21.2 billion and $25 billion, respectively. In the first half of this year, K Pharmaceutical's revenue reached 14.217 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 18%. According to the current growth rate of semaglutide, it is highly likely to surpass K drug and become the next king of drugs.
The first major challenge facing Lilly and Novo Nordisk in the face of market enthusiasm is still the issue of production capacity. Interface News has reported that Novo Nordisk has announced multiple times this year that it will expand its production capacity. In the first half of this year, Novo Nordisk invested up to $15.651 billion in an expansion project.
In addition to expanding production capacity, Lilly has also begun to explore new ways to focus on product specifications. Lilly stated in its Q2 2024 report that expected demand growth may lead to cyclical supply shortages of GLP-1 drugs. In the United States, Lilly plans to launch Zepbound 2.5 mg and 5 mg single dose vials in the coming weeks.
According to Caixin News Agency, on August 2nd, Dave Rikers, CEO of Eli Lilly, revealed in a media interview that the company's best-selling weight loss pills are about to end their shortage in the United States.