① With Harris closely chasing after him in various polls, Trump had previously secured a victory, but now it is hard to determine the winner In the national average poll, Harris and Trump are almost tied, with Trump receiving 47.2% of the vote and Harris having a high 47.3%.
According to multiple media reports, Harris has officially been nominated as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate and has chosen Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as his running mate. Everything seems to be on track, but the outcome of this year's US election has become increasingly uncertain.
With Harris closely chasing after him in various polls, Trump has gone from a secure victory to an undecided winner now.
In the national average poll tracked by the Hill/Decision DESK HQ (DDHQ), Harris and Trump are almost tied, with Trump receiving 47.2% of the vote and Harris having a high 47.3%.
When Biden announced his withdrawal and Harris was just preparing to take over, Trump initially led by more than 6 percentage points.
According to a joint poll conducted by NPR, PBS, and Marist College, Harris' approval rating has reached 51%, leading Trump by 3% (48%). 2% of respondents have not yet made a decision. The poll surveyed 1513 registered voters between August 1st and 4th, 2024.
It is worth noting that the above-mentioned institutions also conducted a survey of 1117 registered voters on July 22, the day after Biden announced his withdrawal from the election. The results show that Trump leads Harris by one percentage point. Therefore, although the latest 3% advantage is still within a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points, it also indicates that Harris' chances of winning are continuing to expand.
At the same time, the election forecast released by polling expert Nate Silver also showed for the first time that "Harris leads Trump", while Trump's chances of winning have remained stable at the top. He said last week that this competition is' hard to determine the winner '.
Narrowing gap in support rates among states
DDHQ tracked the Democratic Party's transformation in 9 out of 10 key states. The agency concluded that the state with the largest average change in polls compared to before Biden withdrew was North Carolina, where Trump's lead dropped from 10 percentage points to only 3 percentage points.
The gap in other key states is also narrowing, although Trump is still leading in most potentially outcome determining states.
Specifically, since Biden announced his withdrawal, Nevada has only conducted two public opinion polls and released results, but overall, Trump's average lead is 3 percentage points, lower than his previous lead of 9 percentage points.
In addition, 8 polls in Pennsylvania and 5 polls in Georgia and Michigan showed that Harris' approval rating increased by 2 percentage points, 4 percentage points, and 3 percentage points, respectively.
Overall, Harris' polls have improved in swing states and nationwide.