In recent years, for most car companies, the layout of the new energy vehicle market has almost become a common choice. However, while various car companies are preparing to expand into the electric vehicle market on a large scale, the famous General Motors has slowed down its layout of electric vehicles, and the famous luxury car brand Porsche has also cancelled its sales target. Major giants are retreating from the new energy market. What's going on?
1、 General Motors slows down electric vehicles, Porsche cancels target
According to reports from Penfolds, General Motors announced on Tuesday that it will once again slow down its plans for all electric vehicles, further delaying the production of its second US electric truck factory and Buick's first electric vehicle. The renovation of the electric truck factory in Michigan has been delayed by six months until mid-2026, which also means that General Motors will not be able to achieve its previous goal of producing 1 million electric vehicles in North America by 2025.
We are committed to responsible and profitable growth, "General Motors CEO Mary Bora told investors during the company's second quarter earnings conference call on Tuesday. A week ago, Bora expressed concerns about whether General Motors could achieve its North American electric vehicle production capacity target.
Bora did not disclose the latest launch date of Buick's first electric vehicle, which is expected to be launched in 2024. The goal of the entire Buick brand is to achieve full electrification by 2030, as part of General Motors' plan to specialize in providing consumer grade electric vehicles by 2035.
General Motors Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson reiterated that the company expects its electric vehicles to achieve profitability based on production or contribution to profit margins once the fourth quarter electric vehicle production reaches 200000 units.
Coincidentally, at this time, the well-known Porsche is also backing down. According to a report by Gelonghui, Porsche will no longer set a specific target of electric vehicles accounting for over 80% of new car sales by 2030, but will make flexible adjustments based on market demand and global development of electric vehicles. In the statement, Porsche stated that the transition to electric vehicles is longer than we imagined five years ago.
This decision reflects the reality of the current slowdown in the growth of the electric vehicle market, as well as Porsche's rapid response to market changes. Although Porsche still adhered to its electric vehicle sales target in March, the company had to reassess its strategy in the face of lower than expected electric vehicle sales in the two major markets of Europe and China.
Porsche's performance in the Chinese market is particularly crucial, but in recent years, its sales in China have declined for the first time, with a year-on-year decrease of 15% in 2023, ending its 8-year record for the largest single market. In the first quarter of 2024, Porsche's sales in China decreased by 24% year-on-year, which had a significant impact on the company's overall revenue and profit margin.
In recent months, executives from car manufacturers such as Mercedes Benz and Renault have also warned that their targets for all electric sales over the next decade have been too high, as customers are still unwilling to give up on gasoline powered cars.
2、 How should we view the withdrawal of new energy by giants?
It is not surprising that major automobile giants are retreating one after another. The tortuous development path of new energy vehicles is a vivid portrayal of the game between technological progress and market acceptance. Just like many technological innovations in history, the rise of new energy vehicles is not achieved overnight, but gradually moves forward through continuous trial and error and adjustment. So how should we view this matter?
Firstly, the twists and turns in the development of new energy vehicles are inevitable. In the long process of technological development, the birth of new technologies and products is often accompanied by twists and turns. Just like when firearms were first introduced, their performance was not as good as bows and arrows, so they experienced some setbacks in promotion and application; Trains first appeared, with speeds even inferior to horse drawn carriages, but ultimately completely changed the pattern of transportation.
The development of new energy vehicles is also the same. As an emerging technology and industry, it faces many challenges and uncertainties. It is normal for fluctuations and adjustments to occur on its development path. This kind of repetition does not mean that the development of new energy vehicles has reached a dead end, but rather seeks the best development path through continuous exploration and adjustment.
For example, in the development of the Internet, the early Internet technology faced problems such as slow network speed and limited applications. But after years of technology accumulation and innovation, the Internet has now been deeply integrated into our lives, bringing unprecedented convenience and change. Similarly, new energy vehicles also need to go through a process from immaturity to maturity.
Secondly, the ups and downs of the development journey of new energy vehicles cannot be avoided. The repeated actions of major automakers in the current new energy vehicle market reflect the inherent laws of the development of the new energy vehicle industry. Despite the rapid development of new energy vehicles in recent years, there are still many urgent problems that need to be solved from a technical perspective.
On the one hand, the charging speed of new energy vehicles is a major bottleneck. Although fast charging technology is constantly improving, there is still a significant gap compared to the convenience of refueling fuel vehicles. Imagine that during long-distance travel, refueling a gasoline car only takes a few minutes, while a new energy vehicle, even with fast charging, often takes tens of minutes or even longer, which undoubtedly brings inconvenience to users. For example, a car owner planning a long-distance self driving trip may experience travel delays due to uneven distribution of charging stations along the way and excessively long charging times.
On the other hand, as an emerging technology product, the profit level of new energy vehicles is relatively low. After years of development, mature fuel vehicles have highly optimized their industrial chain, with stable cost control and profit margins. However, new energy vehicles require significant investment in research and development, production, and other aspects, and the economies of scale have not yet been fully utilized, making it difficult for them to achieve profit levels comparable to fuel vehicles in the short term. Taking a certain automobile brand as an example, after deploying new energy vehicles on a large scale, its profits have significantly declined due to high costs.
Therefore, we can say that the "time difference" between this technology and the market is an obstacle that new energy vehicles must overcome, and it is also an inevitable result of the repeated journey of new energy vehicle development.
Thirdly, the retreat of large car companies is just a pragmatic choice. For many large car companies, especially listed ones, they are facing enormous profit pressure. The layout of new energy vehicles requires huge capital investment, including research and development, production facility construction, market promotion, and other aspects. However, it is difficult to obtain corresponding returns in the short term, which forces car companies to be more cautious when formulating strategies.
In order to meet the profit expectations of shareholders, car companies must weigh the input and output of their new energy vehicle business. In the current situation where technology and market conditions are not yet mature, pragmatically adjusting goals and abandoning unrealistic plans is a rational choice. As mentioned earlier, after evaluating market demand and its own technological strength, General Motors has slowed down the pace of electric vehicle development and focused resources on more profitable businesses to maintain the overall financial health of the company.
The choices made by these large car companies not only reflect respect for the market and reverence for technology, but also reflect the complexity and difficulty of the automotive industry's transformation and upgrading process. In the situation where new energy vehicle technology is not yet fully mature and market demand is not fully released, car companies need to maintain a clear mind and a pragmatic attitude to avoid the risks brought by blind expansion and overinvestment.
Fourthly, the parallel development of new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles will still take a considerable amount of time. The popularization of any new technology takes time, and new energy vehicles are no exception. Although new energy vehicles have made significant progress globally in recent years, there is still a certain gap between them and large-scale marketization and maturity.
At present, there has not been a qualitative breakthrough in battery technology and charging technology for new energy vehicles. The energy density, range, safety, and convenience of charging of batteries still constrain their widespread application. For example, in the cold winter, the range of new energy vehicles often shrinks significantly, causing inconvenience to users.
To achieve comprehensive surpassing of fuel vehicles by new energy vehicles, continuous technological investment and innovation are required. Only when battery technology makes significant breakthroughs, charging time is significantly shortened, and costs are significantly reduced, can new energy vehicles truly dominate the market. This process may take several years or even decades, depending on the speed of scientific research progress and industry collaboration.
Therefore, in the foreseeable future, new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles will coexist for a long time. This parallel state is not only beneficial for meeting the diverse needs of consumers, but also for promoting the continuous improvement and maturity of new energy vehicle technology. In this process, car companies need to constantly adjust their market strategies and product layouts to adapt to market changes and technological advancements.
Fifth, only continuous innovation is the future of the industry. For new energy vehicles, technological innovation is the key to achieving their comprehensive popularization and surpassing fuel vehicles. Only through continuous technological investment and innovation can the problems of new energy vehicles in terms of charging speed, range, battery cost, etc. be solved. At the same time, technological innovation can also promote the development of new energy vehicles in areas such as intelligence and networking, further enhancing their market competitiveness.
For consumers, the choice between new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles will be based on personal needs, usage scenarios, and cost considerations. It is believed that there will still be people who choose fuel vehicles, and of course, more and more people will choose more technologically advanced new energy vehicles. For car companies, a diversified product line layout can not only meet the needs of different consumers, but also diversify market risks. In this process, continuous technological innovation and infrastructure construction will be the decisive factors for new energy vehicles to gradually dominate the market.
Therefore, we can say that the development of new energy vehicles is a complex and lengthy process, which will experience ups and downs and fluctuations. For industry participants, it is important to maintain patience, continuously promote technological innovation, and flexibly adjust strategies according to market changes. Only in this way can they occupy a favorable position in future competition. As for how to seize the advanced ecological position, it needs to test the management of each car company.