Another historic high! After the gold price stabilizes at 2400, concerns resurface: year-end bullish at 2600 US dollars vs. pullback to 2000 US dollars
六月清晨搅
发表于 2024-7-17 19:57:09
185
0
0
Today, the gold price broke through the $2470/ounce mark. After experiencing a correction in June, the gold price has now stabilized at $2400 per ounce and hit a new historical high today. From mid March to mid May, the gold price has repeatedly broken historical highs. Experts believe that the rise in gold prices is influenced by factors such as the decline in the US dollar index, geopolitical risks, and rising market risk aversion.
Whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September will have an impact on gold prices. Analysis predicts that gold, as a non interest bearing asset, will benefit from the rate cut and is expected to rise to a price of $2600 per ounce by the end of the year. Analysts also suggest that if gold breaks through the resistance level of 2480, the maximum increase could reach $2660. But some experts also point out that although the long-term gold price is bullish, it is currently overvalued and there is a possibility of a pullback to $2000 per ounce.
Breaking through $2478, gold prices hit a new high again
On July 17th, gold prices hit a new historical high, with London spot gold prices closing above the $2478/ounce mark, breaking the high set at the end of May and opening as high as $2482.24/ounce at one point. Shenyin Wanguo stated that with the continuous slowdown of US employment data and lower than expected inflation in June, international gold prices have reached a new high.
The price of gold began to soar in early March this year, reaching a temporary high of $2135 per ounce on March 7th, and then began to decline after breaking through $2401.5 per ounce on April 12th. Subsequently, in June, the gold price weakened due to multiple factors, falling below $2300 per ounce at one point.
But industry analysis mostly predicts that the gold price is likely to rise in the medium to long term. In early April, analysts predicted that gold prices could surpass $2400 per ounce. On June 11th, when forecasting the trend of major asset classes in the second half of the year, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) pointed out that the price of gold is expected to climb to $2400 per ounce. Nowadays, gold has stabilized at $2400 per ounce.
The World Gold Council stated on July 11th that from mid March to mid May, gold prices have repeatedly hit historical highs. Since the beginning of the year, the gold price has risen by 12%, and for most of the second quarter, it has been above $2300 per ounce.
One of the main reasons for the historic high in gold prices is the decline of the US dollar index, as gold prices and the US dollar index have mostly shown a seesaw relationship. Recently, the US dollar index has declined, while gold prices have clearly risen. In addition, the US presidential election has also caused some market panic and safe haven demand, and global geopolitical risks remain high. A series of factors have worked together to push up gold prices, "Zhao Qingming, Vice President of the Information Technology Research Institute of the Asset Management, told Caixin reporters.
Gold prices are expected to rise to $2600 by the end of the year
The current market focus is on whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, which will have a significant impact on gold prices.
The Office of the Investment Director of UBS Wealth Management pointed out that since March this year, some developed economies have started to cut interest rates. Although the United States missed the wave of interest rate cuts in the first half of the year, there has been a clear downward trend in inflation rates in recent months. The core CPI only slightly increased by 0.1% month on month in June, and the market expects the possibility of a rate cut in September to rise from around 70% before the release of CPI data to around 90%.
Gold, as a non interest bearing asset, will benefit from interest rate cuts and is also one of the best tools to hedge against uncertainties such as the US election, geopolitics, and US deficits, "said the Office of the Investment Director of UBS Wealth Management. The continued buying by the central bank will also support gold prices, which are expected to rise to $2600 per ounce by the end of the year.
Guohua Gold analyst Wang Yi told Caixin reporters that spot gold has gained support against the backdrop of the US dollar's decline. As for whether the gold price can further rise and break through the flag shaped pattern, the key lies in whether the US dollar index can break below the 104 level and the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September. Due to the upward trend of the flag shape in the gold daily chart, the resistance level has extended to $2480.
It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates from September to December, and if the gold price breaks through $2480, it will open up new upward space. Based on the extension ratio of the upward breakthrough, the maximum increase in gold price can be seen as $2660, and the primary condition is to break through the resistance level of $2480, "Wang Yi predicted.
But some analysts remain cautious about the $2600 price, believing that the gold price has already been overvalued this year. Zhao Qingming believes that looking back at historical gold prices, they have already been overvalued. The possibility of a price exceeding $2500 per ounce this year is higher, and reaching the level of $2600 per ounce is currently questionable. At the same time, it is not ruled out that the gold price may be affected and fall back to $2000 per ounce.
Looking ahead to the future, considering geopolitical risks and the ongoing quantitative easing by major central banks around the world, the overall trend of gold prices is still upward. However, this upward trend is not very flat, and there should be some volatility, and even a significant pullback at some stage, "said Zhao Qingming.
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
猜你喜欢
- Powell is not tough enough to ignite the market: Futures gold hits a new historical high, spot gold prices are also approaching high levels
- Interest rate cuts to warm up the frenzy? International gold prices hit new highs, how far can they go in the future
- While gold prices hit a historic high, Wall Street is still generally bullish: the highest can soar to $3000!
- The three major US stock indexes collectively closed down, Tesla fell nearly 5%, and international gold prices hit a historic high
- European and American stock markets generally fell, Tesla fell nearly 5%, and international gold prices hit a new closing high for four consecutive days
- Why has gold prices recently hit new highs? Four reasons worth paying special attention to
- NIO reduces discount rate, Li Bin: Optimizing gross profit margin is an important task for the next stage
- After the price war in the 550 day crane market: a few pullbacks, most wait-and-see, and some still trading price for volume
- Bridgewater sells gold crazily! What are the future opportunities for gold prices?
- International gold price breaks new record again. Gold stocks take off, gold ETFs soar. How do institutions see the future?
-
9月が終わり、映画・テレビ業界が暗躍している。最近、愛奇芸の創始者でCEOのGONG宇氏は、映画・テレビ業界が長短の変化、AIの変化、中国映画・テレビドラマの海外進出の変化の3つの変化を経験していると発表した。 ...
- 寒郁轩良
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
10月1日、理想自動車が9月に納入したデータによると、9月に理想自動車が新車53709台を納入し、前年同月比48.9%増となった。 今年第3四半期、理想自動車は前年同期比45.4%増の152831台を納入した。今年9月30日現在、 ...
- 就放荡不羁就h
- 昨天 12:06
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
ネットワーク状況監視サイトDownDetectorによると、オーディオストリーミングプラットフォームSpotifyは日曜日に約3時間にわたる障害を経験した後、正常に回復し、ピーク時には米国の4万人以上のユーザーに影響を与 ...
- hecgdge4
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
10月1日、極クリプトン自動車が発表したデータによると、今年第3四半期に新車が累計14万2900台納入され、前年同期比81%増となった。このうち、9月に新車を納入したのは2万13万人で、前年同期比77%、前月比18%増だっ ...
- 内托体头
- 前天 16:17
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏