Is it not that difficult to fight inflation in the last mile? FED research: Excessive tightening can easily lead to errors!
安全到达彼岸依
发表于 2024-1-17 12:47:55
1273
0
0
Starting from the spring of 2021, the inflation rate in the United States skyrocketed, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached a 40 year high of 9% in mid-2022. With the improvement of supply chain conditions, by the end of 2023, the Federal Reserve's tightening policy has reduced inflation rates to within 1-2 percentage points of the 2% target, while unemployment rates have not significantly increased.
However, people are concerned that the "last mile" of continuously lowering inflation to the 2% target will be even more difficult than the journey ahead. But a recent study by the Atlanta Federal Reserve suggests that this is not the case.
The bank pointed out that as the last mile may not be more difficult than elsewhere, it is unlikely that the Federal Reserve will need to make extraordinary efforts to further tighten policy as inflation approaches its target. Excessive tightening of policies will unnecessarily increase the risk of a hard landing.
In a paper published on Tuesday, economist David Rapach of the bank wrote, "It is difficult to conclude that the last mile of fighting inflation is more difficult than the rest. In terms of policy, this means that the Federal Reserve does not need to consider the final stage to be substantially different from the other stages."
The median quarterly economic forecast of Federal Reserve officials shows that they expect to cut interest rates three times in 2024 as inflation decreases last year. Nevertheless, policymakers have dispelled market expectations that they will start cutting interest rates as early as the March meeting.
Earlier on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Director Waller said that if inflation does not rebound, the Federal Reserve will be able to lower interest rates this year. He believes that when that moment arrives, policymakers should be cautious and orderly.
Rapach concluded that being overly concerned about the "last mile" of this battle could lead to policy errors.
He wrote, "From a risk management perspective, it is believed that the last mile will be even more difficult, which may lead to the Federal Reserve tightening its policies excessively, increasing the likelihood of economic recession and a sharp rise in unemployment rates."
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
猜你喜欢
- Core Inflation Stubborn Microsoft and Google's Bright Financial Reports: How to Follow the Future of US Stocks?
- Federal Reserve Director Bauman: Inflation will remain high in the short term, suggesting retaining the interest rate hike option
- Bid farewell to the era of low inflation in Europe? European Central Bank Regulatory Commission: Structural factors will keep inflation at a high level
- Federal Reserve Voting Committee: Increased uncertainty about inflation outlook should be patiently waited for now
- FED内部“鹰风阵阵”!又一官员打压降息预期:现在考虑为时过早!
- Kashkari predicts that high interest rates will be maintained for a period of time, stating that the Federal Reserve is closely monitoring housing inflation
- New signs of slowing global inflation driving up bond markets in Europe and America. Focus tonight on Federal Reserve minutes
- European Central Bank Regulatory Commission: As long as inflation continues to slow down, further interest rate cuts can be made, but interest rates will not return to zero
- Federal Reserve's "hawkish" officials say again: it is not appropriate to cut interest rates now. If inflation continues to rise, companies are still willing to raise interest rates!
- Federal Reserve Voting Committee's latest inflation data review: Monetary policy is working, it's too early to judge the timing of interest rate cuts now
-
2019年に電動自転車の新国標が実施された後、基準を満たしていない電動自転車の保存量が秩序正しく淘汰され、市場は置換サイクルに入った。フロストサリバンの統計データによると、2020年から2022年までの国内電気 ...
- hecgdge4
- 昨天 13:05
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
アマゾンが米証券取引委員会(SEC)に提出した最新の規制文書によると、同社の創業者ジェフ・ベゾス(Jeff Bezos)氏は50億ドル近くのアマゾン株の売却を計画している。 今回ベゾス氏が売却を計画しているアマゾン ...
- 寒郁轩良
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
【メディア:バイデン氏は夜8時以降の活動を停止するためにはより多くの睡眠が必要だと述べた】複数のメディアによると、バイデン米大統領は水曜日、民主党の知事に対し、より多くの睡眠が必要だと述べたため、勤務 ...
- 什么大师特
- 前天 10:57
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
【ビジネス界のエリート100人が連名でバイデン氏の再選出馬の見通しに重大な挑戦】複数のメディアによると、数百人のビジネス界のリーダーからなる組織「Leadership Now Project」はホワイトハウスに書簡を送り、米 ...
- 不正经的工程师
- 昨天 10:31
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏