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ANZ stated that core inflation in the eurozone has significantly improved in recent months. However, given the unpredictable nature of oil prices and the possibility of rising energy costs leading to a resurgence of overall inflation, the European Central Bank remains cautious. But we believe that the threshold for the European Central Bank to raise interest rates again is high. In addition to energy uncertainty, evidence from monetary aggregates, real economy data, and wage growth all support an improvement in potential inflation trends. Based on the evaluation of the data, we believe that it is appropriate for the European Central Bank to suspend interest rate hikes. In addition, some major hawks suggest that the current restrictive level of interest rates may be appropriate.
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