A continuous decline in the market for nearly two months, there is a rebound is normal, the key is when to reverse the trend, when the bull market return? Maybe we can't see a comprehensive bull market, but the structural market and the spiral cycle will still bring us capital dividends.

As of this week, almost all major indexes have covered the jump gap formed by the favorable policy in late July, and the mood has returned to calm.
The market weekly line 6 consecutive negative, trading hit a new low of nearly a year, a variety of trading indicators are pointing to the short-term market fell a bit too much, the rebound is imminent.
Rebound is coming, do not be too excited, a market that has fallen for nearly two months in a row, there is a rebound is normal, the key is when to reverse the trend, when the bull market return?
We have previously discussed the internal and external causes of this decline, the economy and the exchange rate, the economy is the core, the exchange rate is the surface, and the continuous adjustment of the capital market is the result of internal and external causes.
A market of more than 80 trillion yuan is no longer able to be reversed simply by relying on policies, and many old investors still keep their thinking in the 1990s, and the brand of "policy market" has left too deep an impression on these investors.
We must admit that each round of A-share bull market is generally accompanied by policy guidance and release, but we will also find that as the market continues to grow and the proportion of institutional investors continues to increase, A simple sentence, a reduction policy, a change in the trading system, can not easily change the medium and long term market trend. Investors' concerns have shifted from attitudes to economic fundamentals.
In the 1990s, a word can drive the index to double the market, and the reform of non-tradable shares in 2000 can let the index out of the two-year bull market, but with the arrival of the full circulation era, we will find that whether it is the emergence of the GEM, or the millennium plan of the Xiongan New Area, whether it is the creation of the science and technology board, or the implementation of the registration system, the market can not simply walk out of the big bull market. Each round of the market must be consistent with economic data and industry cycles.
The mobile Internet market in 2015, the new energy and dual carbon market after 2019, have a clear industry context and profit cycle, so if you believe that the market is the starting point of a new bull market, then you should first find the next round of the outbreak of the industry and profit cycle.
From the current economic environment, look at the bottom of the real estate, flexibility to see technology, but real estate is flawed, technology is not cheap, so we believe that the market after more than two months of continuous adjustment, technical rebound or trigger, but the real reverse trend may take time.
Long holiday is approaching, investors go out at the same time, may wish to look at the economic situation around, do a good person, think about the market if in the near future really come, then lead the next wave of bull market industry will be which one? With 5,000 listed companies and a market value of more than 80 trillion yuan, we may not see a comprehensive bull market, but the structural market and spiral cycle upward will still bring us capital dividends.
(The author is Guotai Junan Shanghai Research Director)