On the first trading day of 2024, Apple's stock price experienced a "black door".
As of the close of 16:00 Eastern Time on January 2nd, Apple's stock price was $185.64/ADS, a decrease of 3.58%, and its market value decreased by approximately $107.1 billion (approximately RMB 766 billion). This is the company's largest daily decline since August 4th last year, with a midday intraday drop of 4.5%.
The decline in Apple's stock price is directly related to Barclays' downgrade of its rating. On Tuesday, Barclays analysts led by Tim Long gave Apple a downgrade rating and lowered its target stock price by $1 to $160, which is not much different from the current $185.64.
Analysts wrote in the report, "Apple has not met expectations for most quarters of the past year, but its stock price has performed better than other companies. We expect this situation to reverse." At the same time, analysts are not optimistic about the sales and combination of iPhone 15, believing that "no features or upgrades may make iPhone 16 more attractive."
This is the first time since 2019 that Barclays Bank has downgraded Apple's rating to underweight.
In 2023, Apple's stock price rose by about 50% and its market value reached a high of $3 trillion. But the continuous decline in revenue for four quarters has raised doubts among investors about whether Apple can maintain its stock price rise.
Apple's revenue in the third quarter of last year was $89.498 billion, and except for the iPhone, all other hardware businesses showed a year-on-year decline. The net revenue from products was $67.84 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.32% from $70.958 billion in the same period of 2022.
One major reason is that the sales of iPads and Macs did not meet expectations. The revenue from iPads in the third quarter was $6.443 billion, a decrease of 10.19% from $7.174 billion in the same period in 2022. The latest data released by Canalys confirms this: in the third quarter, the share of iPad in the Chinese Mainland market fell from 38% to 31%, down 5% year on year, while that of Huawei increased from 15% in the same period last year to 24%, up 90%, putting a lot of pressure on Apple.
Not everyone is bearish. Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives predicts that the stock market value will reach $4 trillion by the end of this year. Bloomberg compiled data showing that his highest target price for Wall Street is $250, higher than the average analyst expectation of $199.
Apple itself is also trying to find new growth points, and the Vision Pro, which is expected to be officially launched in the United States by the end of the month, has high expectations. This is another new product category launched by Apple since its smartwatch. When it was released in mid last year, it received industry attention due to interactivity and hardware stacking. Its performance after going public is bound to affect the rise and fall of Apple's stock price.
A series of news about Vision Pro is constantly being leaked. Previously, there were reports that Apple's factory in China is producing Vision Pro at full speed and has been ongoing for several weeks, with the goal of preparing products for customers by the end of January this year and planning to enter retail stores for sales in February. Meanwhile, Apple has also been developing the next version of the device's operating system, VisionOS, which is expected to be released later in 2024, indicating its emphasis on Vision Pro.
But Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring has stated that the success of Vision Pro is more about its long-term potential than its performance in 2024. From this perspective, finding ways to increase the demand for smartphones and laptops remains the first issue that Apple needs to face.