A heavyweight signal is coming from China and the United States.
On November 13, the official WeChat official account of the Chinese Embassy in the United States announced that Air China had resumed flights to Washington and added flights to Los Angeles. Starting from November 21st, Air China's Beijing Capital Washington route resumed operations, flying every Tuesday and Saturday; Starting from November 30th, Air China's Beijing Capital Los Angeles route has increased to three flights per week, with flights scheduled on Thursdays, Fridays, and Sundays.
At the market level, TSMC's sudden surge has attracted attention. After opening today, TSMC's stock price surged by over 4%, setting its largest daily increase since May this year. On the news, TSMC's latest monthly report shows that its revenue in October was NT $243.2 billion, an increase of 34.8% month on month and 15.7% year on year. This is the first time TSMC has achieved a year-on-year increase in monthly sales since February this year.
It is worth noting that the cold winter in the global shipping industry has come very suddenly. Recently, the top five shipping giants in the world have announced plans to cut costs and even lay off employees, and it is expected that the industry recession will continue until at least 2024. Among them, Maersk, the world's largest listed container transportation company, announced that it expects its annual operating profit to be at the bottom of the range and will lay off 10000 employees to reduce costs.
Chinese Embassy in the United States Announces
On November 13, the official WeChat official account of the Chinese Embassy in the United States announced that Air China had resumed flights to Washington and added flights to Los Angeles.
Starting from November 21, 2023, Air China's Beijing Capital Washington route will resume operations, flying every Tuesday and Saturday.
Starting from November 30, 2023, Air China's Beijing Capital Los Angeles route will increase to three flights per week, with flights scheduled on Thursdays, Fridays, and Sundays.
The latest article on "Air China Subscription Number" has sorted out Air China's North American routes, as shown in the following figure:
At the same time, Xinhua News Agency released a special article on November 12th titled "Walking and Communicating More, Feeling the Real Pulse of Sino US Economic and Trade Cooperation", which pointed out that regular direct passenger flights between China and the United States have been increasing again since November 9th. The cross continent route reflects the pulse of mutually beneficial cooperation between China and the United States.
The special article states that in the context of increasingly severe global challenges, promoting cooperation between China and the United States in various fields, including economy and trade, is in line with the common interests of both countries and is also conducive to enhancing the well-being of people around the world.
The special article emphasizes that from Bali to San Francisco, an increasing number of American economic and trade professionals recognize that competition is by no means the whole and mainstream of the relationship between the two countries. A large number of objective facts and data highlight the close social connections and deep integration of interests between China and the United States. The will of the Chinese and American people is cooperation, and the driving force of Sino US cooperation is win-win.
TSMC suddenly skyrocketed
After the opening of the market on November 13th, TSMC suddenly surged, with TSMC soaring by over 4%, setting its largest daily gain since May this year. As of the close, the stock price increase slightly narrowed to 2.5%.
Last Friday, TSMC's US stock price had taken the lead in a significant surge, with an increase of 6.35% as of the close of the day. The latest total market value was approximately $505.4 billion (approximately RMB 3680 billion).
On the news, TSMC's latest monthly report shows that its revenue in October was NT $243.2 billion (approximately RMB 54.8 billion), an increase of 34.8% month on month and 15.7% year on year. This is the first time TSMC has achieved a year-on-year increase in monthly sales since February this year.
Analysts point out that TSMC's chip sales have increased year-on-year, indicating expectations that the global chip market is gradually recovering from the low point of the epidemic.
TSMC CEO Wei Zhejia has stated that after more than a year of post pandemic downturn, the company expects the chip market to hit bottom "soon". The prosperity of artificial intelligence has stimulated the demand for chips for training large-scale language models, while TSMC has found early signs of improving demand in consumer electronics industries such as smartphones and personal computers.
It is worth mentioning that smartphones and personal computer chips are one of TSMC's core businesses.
Wei Zhejia stated that given its strong technological leadership and extensive customer base, the company is confident in achieving healthier growth in 2024.
TSMC had predicted that in the fourth quarter of 2023, the company's sales would reach 18.8 billion to 19.6 billion US dollars (approximately RMB 137.1 billion to 143 billion), higher than analysts' expectations.
In addition, according to Taiwan, China's Economic Daily, the demand for advanced CoWoS packaging of TSMC has exploded. After Nvidia decided to expand its order placement in October, it was reported from the industry that Apple, Superway, Broadcom, Maxwell and other heavyweight customers have also recently pursued orders from TSMC. In order to respond to the needs of the above five customers and accelerate the expansion of CoWoS advanced packaging capacity, TSMC will increase its capacity by about 20% to 35000 pieces next month compared with the original doubling target.
It is worth noting that the current price of storage chips is rebounding significantly. According to the Taiwan, China Electronic Times, insiders said that storage manufacturers have strictly controlled the shipment recently, and downstream memory module factories can hardly get the goods. The frequency of NAND wafer quotations has been shortened from the previous quarterly quotations to the current daily quotations.
The supply chain also revealed that there is currently no fixed price model in the memory market, and new prices need to be known before shipment.
Among them, Samsung's price increase attitude is the strongest. In early November, it was reported that Samsung had decided to increase its NAND Flash chip quotation by 10% to 20% this quarter, and has decided to increase its quotation by 20% quarterly in the first and second quarters of next year, far exceeding industry expectations.
Global Shipping Cold Winter Assault
The current cold winter in the global shipping industry has come very suddenly.
Recently, the top five shipping giants in the world have announced plans to cut costs and even lay off employees due to concerns that the economic recession will affect the development of the shipping industry, and it is expected that the industry recession will continue until at least 2024.
These five shipping giants collectively control about one-third of the global container capacity. Among them, Maersk, the world's largest listed container transportation company, announced that it expects its annual operating profit to be at the bottom of the range and will lay off 10000 employees to reduce costs. The industry expects its free cash flow to plummet by 80% this year and break below positive levels in 2024.
In addition, Rolf Hubben Jansen, CEO of Hapag LIoyd Shipping, stated that he is concerned about the shipping market in the next 24 to 36 months and believes that he will see the impact of an economic recession.
Industry insiders point out that carriers have begun to consider canceling individual voyages and even completely suspending route business with weak demand. In the longer term, they can also terminate the charter party, idle the ship, or sell the ship in the scrap market to reduce transportation capacity.
More seriously, the shipping industry is also facing a significant increase in cost expenditures. The Suez Canal has announced that the cost of crossing the canal from Asia will increase by 15% next year; The Panama Canal, another major thoroughfare, has become congested, causing shipowners to bid high prices for priority transit rights.
It is worth mentioning that the global shipping industry's winter has come too fiercely, and the prosperity in 2022 has just reached a historic high.
In 2022, Evergreen Shipping's year-end bonus, which paid an average of 52 months' salary to its employees, was once flashed across the entire network. According to data compiled by industry insiders, the world's top ranked shipping companies achieved a total net profit of 364 billion US dollars in 2021 and 2022, setting a historic high.
However, everything came to an abrupt end in 2023. This year, analysts are collectively pessimistic, predicting that the global shipping industry will fall back into deficit this year.