Marko Kolanovic, Chief Global Market Strategist at JPMorgan, said that last week's stock market rebound was about to end.
The S&P 500 index surged 6% last week, marking its largest weekly gain since the beginning of this year. Part of the reason for this jump is that the October employment report was lower than expected, leading to a sharp drop in bond yields. But Kolanovic is not buying it because a series of risks are starting to converge.
He said, "We believe that as the Federal Reserve continues to remain high for a longer period of time, valuations are too high, earnings expectations remain overly optimistic, pricing power is weakening, profit margins are at risk, revenue growth slowdown will continue, and the stock market will soon recover to unattractive risk return levels
Most importantly, the idea that bad economic news is good news for the stock market is very unstable, as further deterioration of economic data may sound the alarm of an imminent economic recession.
In fact, it's difficult to distinguish between a healthy economic slowdown and the initial stages of a recession, "he said.
The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rate stability until next spring, when the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates rather than raise them.
Kolanovic stated that although stock market investors hope to see interest rates fall, the most important thing is the underlying reasons behind the rate cuts. If the Federal Reserve relaxes monetary policy because inflation has been controlled and the economy remains stable, it will be beneficial for the stock market; But if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates because of economic weakness, it will be detrimental to the stock market.
Furthermore, if the Federal Reserve does not lower or raise interest rates, but instead maintains them at the current level, it may be a bigger issue for the stock market.
Due to the fact that the Federal Reserve's short-term interest rates will remain high for a longer period of time, the market may begin to digest policy errors, leading to a decline in long-term returns. This may ultimately not be helpful for the stock market, especially if the 2024 earnings forecast starts to decline, "he added.
In fact, Kolanovic is not the only bearish bear on Wall Street. Mike Wilson, Chief US Equity Analyst and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Stanley, reiterated his view on Monday that the recent stock market rebound is nothing more than a bear market rebound.
It should be noted that these two investment strategists have been bearish on the stock market this year, even though the stock market has been rebounding strongly for most of 2023.