Since Vice President Harris took over from Biden as the Democratic nominee for president last month, his approval rating has skyrocketed rapidly and he has shown momentum to surpass Republican presidential candidate Trump.
However, on Monday local time, the founder of Harris' largest super political action committee stated that their own poll results are not as "optimistic" as external polls suggest.
He also warned that in the key states of this election, Democrats may face much more intense competition than external polls suggest.
Not as optimistic as polls
On Monday local time, the Democratic Party of the United States held its National Convention in Chicago, and Chauncey McLean, the chairman of the party's largest super political action committee, Future Forward, delivered a speech at the event.
The so-called Super Political Action Committee (SPAC) is a newly emerged political organization in the United States in 2010, aimed at influencing election results by raising and spending large amounts of funds - in simple terms, it is the main channel through which major donors donate funds to candidates during the US election process.
Compared to traditional political action committees, super political action committees can accept unlimited donations from all parties, with the only restriction being that they cannot directly contact candidates or their campaign teams. Therefore, they are typically used to fund advertising, promotional activities, and other political actions to support or oppose specific candidates or policies.
At present, the Super Political Action Committee "Future Forward" has raised hundreds of millions of dollars to support Harris' participation in the November 5th election.
Our data is far less optimistic than what you see in public, "said McClane, the chairman of Future Forward, who rarely speaks publicly.
Is the poll result incorrect?
Multiple polls show that since Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic candidate, Trump's originally high winning rate has been significantly weakened, and Harris' approval rating is showing signs of catching up from behind.
According to a national poll conducted by polling firm FiveThirtyEight, Harris is currently leading with a support rate of 46.7%, while Trump's support rate is 43.8%. Meanwhile, in several battleground states, Harris has a higher lead in opinion polls.
A poll conducted by ABC News, The Washington Post, and Ipsos from August 9th to 13th also showed that Harris had a 49% approval rating among registered voters, while Trump had a 45% approval rating.
In addition to polling websites, gambling platforms also show similar results. According to the gambling website Polymarket, Harris has a 50% win rate in this year's election, slightly surpassing Trump's 49% win rate.
However, the large-scale polls initiated by 'Future Forward' seem to show different results. In the weeks after Harris became the presumed Democratic nominee on July 22, they talked to about 375000 Americans.
Although he did not disclose specific support rate data, he warned that Harris has not fully regained the support of black, Hispanic, and young voters. In the 2020 election, it was these voters who sent Biden to the presidency.
Key swing states are of paramount importance
McClane also stated that shortly after Biden withdrew from the race, Harris' support momentum mainly came from young voters of color, giving the Democratic Party a fighting edge in southern states such as Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, which had been largely abandoned by the party in the later stages of Biden's campaign.
He said, 'She has multiple paths to take,' and currently there are seven states she can fight for, which is completely different from the situation when Biden ran for office. In addition to the four states mentioned above, he also mentioned Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
McClane stated that in the organization's analysis, Pennsylvania remains the most important state, and Harris must win one of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia in order to take office in the White House.
McLean also mentioned that opinion polls show that the public expects Harris to present a more detailed policy stance.
He stated that voters no longer want to hear those clich é s, but rather need Harris to provide more concrete examples to illustrate how she may differ from Biden and improve their economic lives.
McClane said that the competition in the US presidential election has never been so intense: "Our race is very intense, very tense, and almost comprehensive