① The head of global interest rates at JPMorgan Chase stated that it is expected that the Bank of Japan will avoid raising interest rates again in the short term, and the future path of interest rate hikes may depend on the US economy He predicts that the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan may not be until next year.
After experiencing the crazy market of "Black Monday", the global interest rate manager of JPMorgan Chase said that it is expected that the Bank of Japan will avoid raising interest rates again in the short term, and the future path of interest rate hikes may depend on the US economic situation.
Contrary to the judgment of most economists, he predicts that the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan may not be until next year.
Does the path of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike depend on the United States?
Last week, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly announced a rate hike, triggering an epic "tsunami" in the Japanese market: with the widespread liquidation of yen arbitrage trading, almost all of Japan's financial markets, including Japanese bonds, yen, and even stocks, suffered a "bloodbath".
The Japanese yen surged to a high of 141.70 yen per US dollar on Monday, and the Japanese stock market also plummeted on Monday, with the Nikkei 225 index plummeting by over 12% at one point.
Less than 48 hours later, the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Maki Uchida, stepped forward and stated that Japan would not raise interest rates if the market was unstable. Subsequently, the Japanese yen exchange rate fell to 1 US dollar to 147.90 US dollars.
Morgan Stanley's global head of interest rates, Seamus Mac Gorain, clearly agrees with Masaichi Uchida's remarks. He believes that Uchida's remarks imply that the Bank of Japan's next interest rate hike may have to wait until next year.
The Bank of Japan may not raise interest rates until next year
After a crazy week, the world is closely watching the Bank of Japan's next policy move.
Currently, there are many conflicting views in the market regarding Japan's policy path.
From the perspective of economists, the current economic situation in Japan has met sufficient conditions for interest rate hikes: about 65% of the 34 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect Japan to raise interest rates again before the end of this year.
But Wall Street traders believe that the Bank of Japan may not have the confidence to raise interest rates rashly after experiencing "Black Monday": the pricing of the swap market shows that the market expects the possibility of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates by another 25 basis points before the end of this year to be only about 30%, which is significantly lower than about 60% a week ago.
Mike Golan is also on the side of the trader. He believes that the Bank of Japan may not raise interest rates again until 2025.
He said in an interview, "They (the Bank of Japan) may carry out a series of interest rate hikes, but it will depend on a relatively mild global background
&Amp; quot; It is obvious that the Bank of Japan will not take action until the market stabilizes; quot;  He said. The stability of the market, of course, depends on whether the US and global economies can avoid recession
He said, "The Bank of Japan actually has a path to take action again, but the Federal Reserve can also cut interest rates and try to stabilize the US economy... If we (the US) fall into a recession, of course, they (Japan) are also finished