The weight loss drug market is constantly expanding, and although the production capacity of Novo Nordisk and Lilly cannot meet the demand of the European and American markets, these companies have begun to expand their business in Asia.
According to Kasper Bdker Mejlvang, President and Representative Director of Novo Nordisk Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. in Japan, Japanese people lack awareness of obesity and have always felt ashamed due to obesity. This deficiency is also one of the reasons why Novo Nordisk chose Japan. The company will first challenge the task of market education.
Discovering an untapped blue ocean market undoubtedly represents a huge opportunity, and Japan is exactly the market that Novo Nordisk envisions. In terms of data, a study in 2020 showed that the number of obesity patients in Japan around the age of 20 has doubled in the past thirty years.
In addition, due to the worsening aging population, Japan's social security expenditure has accounted for one-third of the country's national budget, and people are very interested in the national healthcare system. Once Novo Nordisk can include its weight loss pills in Japan's medical insurance coverage, it is equivalent to catching the fast train of development.
However, Mejlvang also pointed out that the fast train of the national healthcare insurance system may be difficult to catch up with solely relying on the effect of weight loss, and the country may require weight loss drugs to make greater progress in curbing chronic diseases.
Weight loss pills are moving forward at high speed
This year, the concept of weight loss pills is undoubtedly very popular in the market, and as a result, the stock price of Novo Nordisk has risen by about 70% in the past 12 months. It is estimated that by 2030, global sales of weight loss pills will reach 80 billion US dollars, and Novo Nordisk and Lilly will be the dual leaders in the market.
The World Obesity Federation, on the other hand, pointed out that governments around the world are eager to curb obesity, as it is expected that by 2060, the cost of treating obesity will increase to about $1980 billion, four times higher than in 2019.
From the perspective of the Japanese market, the definition of obesity in Japan is stricter than globally. In the universal BMI standard, when the value exceeds 30, the person will be considered obese, but in Japan, this threshold is 25. This is also related to the physical characteristics of Asians, who are usually more prone to accompanying problems such as heart disease due to obesity.
Therefore, the current obesity level in Japan is actually close to that in Europe and America, which provides a good opportunity for weight loss drugs to enter the market. And the launch of Novo Nordisk's Wegovy drug in Japan also means that this is the first time GLP-1 drug has appeared in Japan in 30 years.
Mejlvang added that in the medium term, Wegovy's launch in Japan will adopt a relatively gentle pace, involving the establishment of a system of market, education, and overall treatment methods. He also stated that given Japan's dietary culture, Novo Nordisk is also concerned about drug abuse and will strictly control the process of releasing drugs.
According to estimates from the Japanese Ministry of Health and Welfare, Novo Nordisk's Wegovy is expected to sell up to 33 billion yen, approximately 219 million US dollars, within five years.