Renowned Apple analyst Guo Minggui predicts that Apple's iPhone shipments in 2024 will decrease year-on-year, partly due to a significant decrease in shipments to China.
Guo Minggui believes that the current market expects foldable iPhones or iPhone products with generative artificial intelligence technology to be available as early as 2025. Prior to this, the shipment momentum of iPhones will continue to be suppressed.
Guo Minggui warned on Twitter that if Apple fails to launch a generative AI service that exceeds market expectations this year, Nvidia's market value is likely to surpass Apple's.
Apple iPhone shipments are expected to decrease by 15% year-on-year
Guo Minggui claimed that a supply chain investigation showed that Apple has lowered orders for key upstream semiconductor parts for iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. Apple's downward adjustment may be the largest among major global smartphone brands.
Guo wrote in the article that compared to the shipments of the iPhone 14 series in the first half of 2023 and the iPhone 15 series in the second half of 2023, the shipments of the iPhone 15 series and the new iPhone 16 series will decrease by 10-15% year-on-year in the first and second half of 2024, respectively.
Overall, this means that Apple's total iPhone shipments will drop to 200 million units in 2024. If this number is confirmed, it means that Apple's iPhone shipments for the entire year of 2024 will decrease by 15% year-on-year.
As for the reason for the decrease in shipment volume, Guo believes that on the one hand, it is due to Huawei's return to the Chinese market for smartphones, and on the other hand, it is due to the high-end market shifting towards smartphones with generative artificial intelligence elements and foldable designs. Guo mentioned that due to the high integration of generative artificial intelligence functions, Samsung Electronics has increased the shipment volume of the Galaxy S24 series by 5-10% in 2024.
The market is waiting for significant innovation in the iPhone
At the beginning of this year, iPhone sales in the Chinese market plummeted year-on-year. According to data from Apple research company Counterpoint, iPhone sales in China decreased by 24% year-on-year in the first six weeks of 2024. Meanwhile, Huawei's sales in China increased by 64% year-on-year.
According to Counterpoint's report, Apple's share in the Chinese smartphone market dropped to 15.7% at the beginning of this year, ranking fourth; Last year, the company had a market share of 19%, ranking second. Huawei's market share in the Chinese smartphone market has expanded from 9.4% in the same period last year to 16.5%, ranking second.
Apple Guo predicts that the trend of losing market share in China will continue in the face of competition from Huawei and foldable phones.
Guo also believes that Apple expects to launch an iPhone model with significant design improvements and the ability to provide more artificial intelligence technology as early as 2025. Apple's foldable models are expected to be launched as early as 2025. This means that the growth of Apple iPhone shipments prior to this will be affected.
During Apple's release of its Q1 2024 financial results and conference call, executives have warned that Q2 performance may be more challenging than initially expected.
It is worth noting that while Guo Minggui made the above remarks, Wedbush analysts were also discussing Apple, but they were much more optimistic than Guo Minggui.
Wedbush believes that despite facing many issues from iPhone sales in China to the cancellation of Apple's automotive project, Apple still maintains its target price for iPhone 16 and believes that suppressed demand will help overcome any current concerns.