Recently, the release of Apple's first MR (mixed reality) headset Vision Pro has brought consumers back to the quiet XR (extended reality) field and sparked discussions about whether Vision Pro is another "iPhone moment".
The Apple Vision Pro was officially released in the United States on February 2nd. In a memo sent to company employees, Apple CEO Tim Cook compared the headset to his iPhone, iPad tablet, Apple watch, and Mac laptop, stating that it would "enter the defining hall of Apple's groundbreaking products and redefine the technology we know.".
Cook also said in an interview on the 2nd, "The iPhone introduced us to mobile computing, the Mac introduced us to personal computing, and the Vision Pro was the first space computer, with people interacting with it in completely different ways... This is an important moment."
Since Cook announced the grand debut of Apple's first headset product with the phrase "One More Thing" at the WWDC conference on June 6, 2023, this claimed to be "entering the era of spatial computing" has attracted global attention. Despite being priced at $3499 (approximately 25000 RMB) and only available in the US market, the Vision Pro has sparked heated discussions within and outside the industry, with expectations that Apple can bring new vitality to the XR technology market, which has experienced ups and downs.
Apple becomes a "new variable" in the XR industry
The concept of XR (Extended Reality) is a general term for AR (Augmented Reality), VR (Virtual Reality), and MR technology. VR immerses users in a completely virtual electronic world, while AR and MR allow users to see the augmented virtual experience of the real world through devices.
Although the exploration of VR and AR has a history of decades, a landmark event that brought the XR concept into the public eye occurred in 2014, when social media giant Facebook (later renamed Meta) acquired VR device startup Oculus for $2 billion and announced a major investment in the construction of the "metaverse". Before the launch of Vision Pro, Meta, Sony, PICO, HTC and other companies under ByteDance have launched their own XR consumer head display devices.
However, AR and VR products seem to have not been widely recognized by the public. The latest report released by consulting firm IDC predicts that global AR and VR head display shipments will reach 8.1 million units in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 8.3%. The report points out that Sony's PS VR and Meta's Quest3 headsets are relatively popular, but due to multiple factors such as macroeconomic pressure and slower spending in the business sector, the growth of global AR/VR headsets has been suppressed. IDC believes that driven by Meta's Quest 3 and Apple Vision Pro, the shipment volume of AR/VR headsets will see a significant increase in 2024, with an estimated year-on-year growth of 46.4%.
However, Apple wants to break through the limitations of concepts by never defining Vision Pro with terms such as XR. Instead, it refers to the core technology used in this headset as "spatial computing," a technology that allows computers to understand the physical world. Essentially, Vision Pro is actually a VR headset, and the "real background" that users see when wearing Vision Pro is the image recorded by Vision Pro through the lens and displayed on the screen. But thanks to the technological advancements brought by Apple's hardware, users can hardly feel the time delay between images and reality, thus achieving the effect of AR.
Dong Jiyang, Vice President of Zhencheng Investment with investment research experience in the VR/AR field, believes that Apple, which uses VR's Pancake optics+VST technology to achieve AR effect in spatial computing products, has become a variable in the industry. Although there has been no fundamental breakthrough in some core technology points, the integration of used technologies, Fully utilizing the advantages of its chips and industry chain: "In addition, Apple's exploration of technology paths and product development time is actually very long. It has achieved what I think is the most extreme experience at the current stage, and it is difficult for other companies worldwide to achieve it in a short period of time."
Tang Linyao, Associate Researcher at the Institute of Law, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that, Apple's application ecosystem has also brought significant advantages to it: "Unlike existing VR/AR products that are constantly advancing towards' hardware accumulation 'and' technology accumulation ', Apple's marginal contribution lies in driving enterprises within the ecosystem to develop smoother and more powerful practical applications together, that is, forcing some app developers and content providers within the platform to' exclusively 'enhance the user experience within the ecosystem according to their own designed regulations and access methods."
Can it bring "iPhone moment" or require time to verify
So, can Vision Pro open up a new era in the XR industry and bring another "iPhone moment"?
Mark Jansen, a journalist for technology media Digital Trends, believes that the answer is yes. He believes that although the market performance of Vision Pro may not be very good, with Apple's brand appeal, the launch of this product alone is enough to inspire global companies to strengthen research on VR/AR devices and make consumers start considering purchasing such products. In addition, the outstanding exterior design of Vision Pro can also make it worthy of the title of "luxury goods" displayed on the head, which has strong appeal to the high-end market audience.
Alex Heath, a journalist for technology media The Verge, also lamented after trying on Vision Pro in the early stages. The display technology of Vision Pro impressed him and reminded him of what Apple founder Steve Jobs said when Apple launched the iPhone 4 with Retina Retina screens in 2010, "Once you use it, you can't forget it.".
Of course, there are also many different voices. For example, Time magazine's analysis suggests that it is still too early to evaluate whether Vision Pro can be called the "iPhone Moment". The factors that determine its success are not the device and technology itself, but rather whether it can have strong application development support in the later stage, fully reflecting the potential of this headset.
Gene Munster, a well-known technology analyst and executive partner of Deepwater Asset Management, predicts that, like Apple watches, the Vision Pro will need at least five more years after its release to "truly showcase its charm": "The snowball effect can only be activated when the price drops. I believe it is still mainly in the testing stage."
Tang Linyao also believes that the statement that "Vision Pro brings iPhone moments to the AR/VR industry chain" is somewhat exaggerated: "Firstly, Vision Pro only represents Apple's balanced presentation of the latest VR/AR technology integration, rather than milestone building a software ecosystem loop for the iPhone that has continued to this day; secondly, the issue of clear vision distance and high hardware prices limit the popularization of Vision Pro;"; Thirdly, the launch of Vision Pro can only indicate that Apple has established a mature industry chain around Vision Pro. Currently, the entire VR/AR product industry chain is still in a stage of continuous updating and replacement with changes in concepts and specific product models
After communicating with multiple domestic VR/AR companies, Dong Jiyang stated that although Vision Pro has just been released and shipped, it is still in a relatively early stage. However, its shipment has caused significant reactions in the industry and media circles, and various companies in the industry also need to think and make decisions to follow Apple's technological path, Still sticking to their original path: "Domestic AR path whole machine startups, overseas giant Meta's VR products, and others are currently adopting different technological paths from Apple. It is worth looking forward to whether their subsequent product definitions and technological paths will refer to Apple's product definitions."
Dong Jiyang also observed that, unlike the mid to low price popular positioning of products such as Quest and Pico, Vision Pro's high-end and high pricing positioning has defined the high-end market and provided a benchmark for the VR/AR industry, which was originally constantly pursuing cost-effectiveness. This has made the market "possibly different in terms of configuration, ecology, and effects for each company in the future", and the products will also have a distinction between mid to low and high-end.