After nearly five years, Boeing's best-selling narrow body aircraft, the 737MAX, has once again encountered a grounding crisis. Affected by this, when the US stock market opened on Monday, Boeing's stock price fell 8.4%, marking the largest decline since October 2022. At the close, its stock price still fell by more than 8%.
The grounding crisis this time stems from a rare aviation accident - a 737MAX9 operated by Alaska Airlines in the United States had its cabin door detached from the fuselage during flight, causing the cabin to instantly release pressure and all oxygen masks to fall off. And this Boeing 737MAX9 was delivered on October 31, 2023, and is a new aircraft with less than three months of age.
For safety reasons, in just two days, multiple global civil aviation regulatory agencies such as the Federal Aviation Administration of the United States, the European Aviation Safety Agency, the Civil Aviation Authority of Malaysia, and the Civil Aviation Authority of India have announced a temporary suspension of the 737MAX9 aircraft and conducted safety inspections. After the grounding, some airlines have limited their capacity. Among them, Alaska Airlines has cancelled over 400 flights, which are expected to last at least until the middle of this week.
Which airlines worldwide are affected?
Public information shows that the Boeing 737MAX series aircraft are the latest generation of single channel narrow body passenger planes, including the 737 MAX7, 737 MAX8, 737 MAX9, 737 MAX10, and 737 MAX200. The earliest model, 737 MAX 8, is also the cornerstone of MAX orders, with delivery volumes approaching 1000 units as of August last year; The delivery volume of 737MAX9 ranks second, with over a hundred units delivered. The smallest model 737MAX7 and the largest model 737MAX10 have not yet been certified and have not been delivered to customers for use.
The global delivery volume of 737 MAX 9 aircraft involved in this safety accident is 218. From the distribution of operators, according to the Planespotters website, the largest operators of the 737MAX9 are United Airlines and Alaska Airlines; Next are Panama Airlines and Mexico Airlines; In addition, Türkiye Airlines, Icelandic Airlines and Lion Air Indonesia also operate a small number of 737MAX9.
On the delivery timeline, Alaska Airlines received the latest 737MAX9 aircraft with registration number N705AL on December 13, 2023. The latest 737MAX9 from United Airlines was received on November 22, 2023, with registration number N77578.
After the accident, the Federal Aviation Administration ordered American airlines to stop using some Boeing 737 MAX 9 aircraft, which affected approximately 171 aircraft. The reason why it is called "partial aircraft" is mainly due to the special configuration of the emergency cabin doors of the aircraft involved.
According to John Ostroll, an American civil aviation analyst, the Boeing 737 MAX 9 aircraft has an emergency hatch in the rear cabin. When delivering this model, Boeing was requested by some airlines to abandon this door and replace it with a window. From the outside, the configuration of this area is still a cabin door, but when passengers look inside the cabin, this window is no different from the other windows. Due to the closure and abandonment of this door, it is essentially a door stopper with 12 stop blocks on top to secure the stopper and prevent it from flying off.
Senior Captain Chen Jianguo stated that if the airline chooses a low-density layout with fewer seats, then not using this emergency cabin door can also meet the needs of emergency evacuation. The interface news can be seen on the Alaska Airlines official website. The 737MAX9 aircraft it operates has a seating capacity of 178 seats, and the common seating range for the 737MAX9 is 178-193 seats, with a maximum seating capacity of 220 seats.
The inspection results for the 737MAX9 have not been updated in the statement on Alaska Airlines' official website. However, another major operator, United Airlines, issued a statement on January 8th local time, stating that loose bolts were found on a Boeing 737 MAX 9 aircraft previously grounded by the Federal Aviation Administration.
United Airlines stated that since the initial inspection began, the company has discovered some issues related to the installation of door plugs, such as the need for additional tightening of bolts. On a United Airlines 737MAX9 aircraft, two bolts on the hinge bracket under the door plug were not fully screwed in. United Airlines stated that it will not disclose the specific number of loose bolts or other information, but will ensure that engineering personnel ensure the safe resumption of all Boeing 737 MAX aircraft after maintenance.
The reputation of the 737MAX family has been damaged again
In recent years, the Boeing 737MAX family has been striving to emerge from the shadow of air disasters and is still in the process of restoring confidence in the global market. Especially since 2023, the global aviation market has accelerated its recovery, and there has been a significant increase in the order and delivery volume of Boeing 737MAX. Boeing suffered a 47% year-on-year loss in the first half of last year.
However, during this critical period of recovery, the Boeing 737MAX once again faced significant safety hazards, its reputation was once again damaged, and it may further exacerbate the concerns of the aviation market, especially among passengers. Moreover, in the current situation where single aisle aircraft dominate, the safety issues of the Boeing 737MAX single aisle aircraft family are frequent, which will also squeeze Boeing's global market share and create greater resistance in catching up with competitors.
Previously, due to the shadow of two aviation accidents involving the 737MAX8, Boeing had already fallen behind in competition with Airbus. Taking China, the world's second largest aviation market, as an example, Airbus Global Senior Vice President Liu Li once introduced at a press conference that as of the end of June 2023, Airbus aircraft had a market share of 54% in China, with both single channel and wide body aircraft markets in a leading position. Before 2020, Boeing's market share in China significantly surpassed that of Airbus.
Currently, neither Boeing nor Airbus has released their 2023 financial reports, nor have they disclosed global order volume and delivery data for 2023. From the situation in the first 11 months of last year alone, according to the interface news on the Airbus official website, Airbus received a net order volume of 1395 aircraft in the first 11 months, with 1212 single channel aircraft represented by A320NEO and A321NEO; In the first 11 months, Airbus delivered a total of 623 aircraft and 547 single aisle aircraft.
According to Boeing's official website, in the first 11 months of 2023, Boeing received a net order volume of 1083 aircraft, with 686 single aisle aircraft represented by 737MAX, which is more than 500 different from Airbus; In the first 11 months, Boeing delivered a total of 461 aircraft, including 343 single aisle aircraft represented by 737MAX, which is more than 200 different from Airbus.
For Boeing, the current challenge is that the company's best-selling and largest delivery 737MAX8 has not yet resumed delivery or received new orders in the mainland Chinese market. In late December 2023, Boeing resumed delivery of aircraft to mainland Chinese airlines for the first time in over four years. Boeing's resumption of delivery of wide body aircraft to mainland China is also seen as a positive signal that Boeing's business in China has broken ice and is expected to resume delivery of the 737MAX as soon as possible.
However, the latest safety accident of Boeing 737MAX9 is a rare occurrence in civil aviation history and has caused a global grounding, which may lead to a further delay in the delivery schedule of Boeing 737MAX in China.
Regarding this, Wang Yanan, editor in chief of Aviation Knowledge, analyzed that the 737MAX9 and 737MAX8 are two aircraft models in the same family. If the problem lies in the manufacturing of individual parts and this part will not affect the 737MAX8, then the airline customers of the 737MAX8 will not be affected. If the relevant processes and product disposal methods are also adopted on the 737MAX8, the range of affected airlines may be further expanded.