Amidst the slow progress of the months long counterattack in southern Ukraine, Russia launched a large-scale attack last week targeting a more limited target: the small eastern city of Avdivka.
From most perspectives, the progress of this attack was not smooth.
The Ukrainian military claims to have destroyed dozens of Russian tanks and other armored vehicles, killed hundreds of Russian soldiers, and lost almost no battlefield. The video released by Ukrainian officials shows the combat situation of the attack, with bombs dropped by artillery and drones hitting one Russian vehicle after another, emitting thick smoke on the road.
This attack may mark a turning point in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Konrad Muzyka, the director of RochanConsulting, a war analysis firm focused on Ukraine, said that Moscow is attempting to launch a new offensive because they believe Ukraine does not have the ability to make breakthroughs in the south.
Although this war has entered its 20th month, it is still unclear whether Russia and Ukraine have the ability to make significant progress; The position of the front line has not changed much in the past year.
Muzyka said, "Ukraine took the initiative during the summer; now, the initiative is slowly shifting. The attacking side is likely to become Russia
The heavy losses of the Russian army prove that both Russia and Ukraine find it very difficult to make progress in their battles with the other party this year, and both sides' military forces are deployed behind dense minefields that can receive artillery cover.
Since the beginning of this summer, Ukraine has invested thousands of troops to attack the Russian defense line in the southern Zaporozhe region, hoping to directly connect to the Sea of Azov and cut off the supply line for the Russian army in southern Ukraine. Initially, the Ukrainian army advanced with its own armored column, using tanks and other Western armored vehicles; The newly formed Ukrainian army conducted training on these vehicles in the spring.
However, after losing some of the vehicles in June, the Ukrainian army redeployed and instead advanced on foot in smaller formations. Using this strategy, Ukraine successfully penetrated the main defense line of the Russian army in August, but has since struggled to expand this gap into a major breakthrough to further advance southward.
Russia has deployed so many resources around Afdivka that it seems that its troops have withstood Ukraine's threat in the south and can use their previously reserved forces to launch an attack.
Since the beginning of the war, the Russian army has approached Afdivka from three sides and leveled most of the city with artillery and air strikes.
Since Russia secretly dispatched troops to support separatist rulers in eastern Ukraine, the small industrial city of Avdivka has been Russia's primary target for nearly a decade. Avdivka is only a few miles away from the capital of Donetsk in the Russian occupied area, and Ukraine's control of Avdivka allows the Ukrainian army to threaten the logistics and transportation hubs of the region.
Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February last year, the Russian army has approached Afdivka from three sides and leveled most of the city with artillery and air strikes. However, the Russian army has been unable to occupy or surround this city, and Ukraine has established defensive fortifications there since the initial conflict.
According to Ukrainian military officials, several Russian battalions, supported by air power and artillery, launched an attack on Avdivka from several directions in the form of armored vehicle columns last week.
They seized several Ukrainian positions on the outskirts of Avdivka, but their goal of cutting off the city seems far away. According to open-source intelligence analysts, their progress has slowed down after the initial push, and they have lost at least thirty armored vehicles; These analysts carefully examine battlefield videos and satellite images to determine and verify changes on the front line.
Since Ukraine annihilated a Russian army column advancing towards the village of Vuhledar in February, the advance towards Afdivka marked the first time the Russian army had deployed a large armored column.
According to a spokesperson, Ukrainian drones and artillery destroyed dozens of tanks and other armored vehicles during Russia's attack on Avdyevka.
Colonel Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskiy, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian military, stated that the Russian army's attack on Avdivka, like the attack in February, had brought catastrophic consequences to the Russian army. He stated that last Tuesday, the first day of the attack, the Russian army lost 2000 soldiers, of which 800 were killed. Ukrainian drones and artillery destroyed dozens of tanks and other armored vehicles. He said that since the beginning of last week, the Russian army's attacks around Afdivka have also decreased, but he also stated that the Russian army maintains its air superiority in the region.
Dmytrashkivskiy said, "The enemy is using regular army units, and out of ten, they were originally conscripted as reserve troops
The Russian Ministry of Defense did not respond to a request from reporters to comment on the attack on Avdivka.
Last week, Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Vasily Nebenzya stated that Ukraine's counterattack had been thwarted and that Russia was currently in an offensive state. But when asked about the issue of Avdivka on Sunday, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the Russian military is conducting "active defense" throughout the front line.
Putin may be trying to ease people's expectations of significant progress in Russia near Afdivka, "wrote the Institute of the Study of War, a Washington based think tank, on Sunday. It is unlikely that the Russian military will make a significant breakthrough in the short term or block the Ukrainian forces in the settlement, and a potential large-scale advance is likely to require a large and long-term investment of personnel and materials