For the first time in 12 years, no new iPad tablet has been released, demand for the iPhone 15 series is weak, and the performance of the MR headset Vision Pro is still unknown... In 2023, Apple CEO Tim Cook's product performance report was clearly somewhat disappointing.
In the fiscal year 2023 (as of September 30, 2023), Apple's total net sales were $383.285 billion, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, and its net sales in Greater China decreased by 2% year-on-year; The net profit was 96.995 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 3%. It may have become a consensus in the market that Apple, under Cook's leadership, is unable to achieve the glory of the Steve Jobs era.
At the opening of the stock market in 2024, both Apple Inc. and Guolian listed companies experienced a "black door".
On January 2nd and 3rd Eastern Time, during the first two trading days of the US stock market in 2024, Apple's stock price fell by 3.45% and 0.75% respectively. On January 3rd, the closing price was $184.25 per share, a decrease of $128.8 billion in market value compared to the last trading day of 2023, which is approximately RMB 920.8 billion.
The last time Apple's stock price fell by more than 3% was in early September 2023. From the overall market perspective, on January 2nd and 3rd Eastern Time, the Nasdaq index fell 1.63% and 1.18% respectively.
On the news side, due to concerns about weak demand for iPhones and Macs in 2024, Barclays Bank in the UK has downgraded its rating of Apple's stock from "neutral" to "underweight", and lowered its 12-month target price by $1 to $160.
According to LSEG data, Barclays Bank is the second institution since July 2022 to give Apple a bearish rating, after investment bank Itau BBA gave Apple a "sell" rating. Barclays Bank analysts also mentioned in their report that the iPhone 15 is lackluster and they are not optimistic about the iPhone 16.
Times Finance has also noticed that recently, some authorized Apple dealers have been offering price reductions and promotions for the iPhone 15 series, with a greater range and intensity of price reductions compared to the previous two years.
For Cook, his career as the Apple CEO may also be coming to an end. Not long ago, Cook revealed that the company had developed a very detailed succession plan. When asked about potential candidates, he expressed his hope that the next CEO would come from within the company. Therefore, the market has high expectations for the upcoming Apple MR headset Vision Pro.
The market response of Vision Pro not only affects Apple's stock price and performance in the 2024 fiscal year, but may also provide a final commentary on Cook's career at Apple.
The fruit chain fell in response to the impact
Times Finance has observed that after the stock price decline, the stock price of Guolian listed companies has also fallen in response. At the close of January 4th, the Wind Apple Index (884116), composed of A-share fruit chain companies, fell 1.09%, with 44 out of 49 companies falling. In addition, on January 2nd and 3rd, the Wind Apple Index fell by more than 1%.
On January 4th, Zhaoyi Innovation (603986. SH) and Changdian Technology (600584. SH) in the Wind Apple Index led the decline. As of the close of the day, the declines were 5.53% and 3.22%, respectively. Leading stocks such as Lixun Precision (002475. SZ), Goethe Group (002241. SZ), and Industrial Fulian (601138. SH) also fell together.
In terms of Hong Kong stocks, Apple suppliers Qiu Titanium Technology (01478. HK), Shunyu Optics (02382. HK), and Ruisheng Technology (02018. HK) fell 0.52%, 1.61%, and 2.05% respectively on January 4th, and their stock prices fell 7.42%, 3.84%, and 2.66% respectively on January 3rd.
Time Finance interviewed two Apple Chain listed companies regarding rumors of Apple's stock price and the listing of its MR headset Vision Pro, both of which expressed inconvenience in responding.
Omdia analyst Li Zegang said in an interview with Time Finance that the current problem facing Apple is that the demand in major markets is not strong, the Chinese region is facing the impact of Huawei's high-end return, and the overall consumer weakness in the European and American markets, coupled with the lack of updated iPads.
The high-end market situation is changing
In early November 2023, although Cook mentioned at Apple's earnings meeting that the performance of the iPhone 15 series since its release was better than that of the iPhone 14 series, and it set a new record in revenue in China, he was very confident in the Chinese market.
However, according to a report by market research firm Canalys, in the third quarter of 2023, while the decline in the global smartphone market narrowed to 1%, Apple's global shipment volume decreased by 6% year-on-year, with a share of 17%, a decrease of 1 percentage point year-on-year, and its shipment volume in the Chinese market also decreased by 6% year-on-year.
Times Finance observed that on New Year's Eve, multiple authorized Apple dealers, including Xinlian, Changhang, and Shangpai Authentic, launched limited time special offers in Guangdong. The iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus were discounted by 800 yuan, while the iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max were discounted by 600 yuan.
In previous years, these authorized dealers also launched promotional activities on New Year's Eve. As the latest Apple phone, the iPhone 15 series has a significantly larger price reduction range and intensity than the latest iPhone 14 series and iPhone 13 series from the previous two years.
Taking Xinlian as an example, its official account shows that on the eve of New Year's Day in 2023, the maximum discount for iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Plus is 800 yuan, and there is no price reduction for iPhone 14 Pro and Pro max. On the eve of New Year's Day in 2022, only the 512GB iPhone 13 in the iPhone 13 series participated in the price reduction promotion, with the main force being the entire iPhone 12 series.
For a long time, Apple has dominated the global high-end smartphone market with its iPhone, but during Cook's tenure, Apple's halo in product innovation has gradually faded. In 2023, Huawei made a comeback in the high-end market and brought about a change in the situation.
According to market research firm Counterpoint Research, Apple's iPhone continues to hold a leading position in the high-end smartphone market, with a market share of up to 71%. But compared to 2022, its market share has decreased by 4 percentage points.
Samsung, ranked second, gained a market share of 17% with sales of the Galaxy S23 and foldable smartphones, an increase of 1 percentage point from 2022.
Huawei, on the other hand, has increased its market share by two percentage points from 3% in 2022 to 5%, thanks to the hot sales of the Mate 60 series and Mate X5 series. According to Counterpoint, in the eighth week of its launch, Huawei Mate60 series sold 2.4 million units domestically. According to Canalys data, as of November 7th, the total sales of Huawei Mate60 series have risen to 2.5 million units.
Counterpoint stated that the increasingly fierce competition in the high-end smartphone market in China (mainly from Huawei) will be a resistance to Apple's full year growth in 2024. However, Counterpoint predicts that global smartphone sales will rebound by 3% year-on-year in 2024- which may be good news for Apple and Cook.