The seven tech giants in the US stock market with a market value exceeding $12 trillion have issued a "black swan" warning
我放心你带套猛
发表于 2023-12-25 10:00:08
245
0
0
In 2023, US technology stocks unexpectedly recovered from the "profit crisis" and "layoff wave" of 2022. The AI big model represented by GPT drove the frenzy of US stocks and triggered the stock prices of technology companies such as Nvidia to reach historic highs.
As of the closing of the last two weeks of 2023, seven technology companies, including Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla, have a total market value of over 12 trillion yuan, an increase of one-third from their market value as of June 30 this year. Meanwhile, the total weight of the seven tech giants in the S&P 500 index has reached a record high of around 30%, almost twice that of five years ago.
The market is eager to know if US technology stocks can continue to break records next year. Albert Edwards, global strategist at Societe Generale, pointed out that the instability of the US technology industry may become the biggest "black swan" in the economy next year.
In 2023, Nvidia reached a milestone in market value, breaking through $1 trillion for the first time on May 30th this year, becoming the first chip company in US stock market history to reach a market value of $1 trillion, creating history.
Since the beginning of this year, Nvidia's stock price has risen by more than 230%, making it the best performing stock among the seven major technology giants in the United States. What drives the company's stock price up is the chip computing power required behind the AI big model. The company is expected to exceed $30 billion in sales for the first time this year.
Next only to Nvidia in terms of stock price performance is Facebook's parent company Meta, whose stock price has risen by over 190% this year. The rise in Meta's stock price is also boosted by continuous investment in artificial intelligence, with the company's Llama AI big model directly benchmarking against OpenAI's GPT. Meta has also successfully found a new direction in the previous wave of layoffs.
Tesla, the electric vehicle company owned by tech tycoon Musk, has seen its stock price rise by over 100% this year. The market's investment in Tesla has also partially benefited from the company's progress in AI fields such as humanoid robots. At Tesla's shareholder meeting held in May this year, Musk announced that the humanoid robot "Optimus" being developed by Tesla will be able to run on Tesla's advanced assisted driving system software and computers in the future. He believes that most of Tesla's long-term value will ultimately come from Optimus.
Apple's stock price has also reached a milestone this year, with its first closing market value exceeding $3 trillion on June 30th. It is also the first company in the United States to exceed $3 trillion in market value and reached a historic high on July 31st. The company's stock price has risen by nearly 50% this year. In an uncertain economic environment, Apple stock investment is still seen as a "fortress" for investors.
As cloud service providers providing data center support for AI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google have also benefited from the growth of data center business driven by AI demand this year. Amazon's stock price has risen by over 80% this year, while Google and Microsoft have also risen by around 60%.
As 2024 approaches, investors hope to know if the US technology industry can still become an engine driving economic growth next year. Faxing Bank holds a pessimistic attitude towards this.
Albert Edwards, a global strategist at Faxing, issued a warning in his final Global Strategy Weekly report released in 2023 about potential variables that could shake global financial markets in 2024.
In the report, Edwards focused on analyzing the instability of the US technology industry and its potential impact on the overall market. He warned that the biggest surprise in 2024 might be the bursting of the US technology foam, which could drag the entire US market into recession.
From the perspective of price to earnings ratio indicators, the valuations of these tech giants are still very high. According to data compiled by institutions, the expected price to earnings ratio of the Nasdaq index for the next 12 months is about 25 times. Although this is slightly lower than the historical peak of 30 times P/E ratio reached in 2020, it is much higher than the average P/E ratio of 19 times in the past 20 years.
However, Morgan Stanley and Faxing Bank hold different views. The securities firm stated that the US stock market may continue to rise next year as investors continue to increase their bets on technology companies. Morgan Stanley pointed out that the S&P 500 index has almost returned to the level of early 2022, and the "tech seven" may continue to rise in 2024 because these companies have performed very well in profitability and are expected to repurchase a large number of stocks next year. However, the institution's analysis suggests that the US stock market may experience a pullback before the end of next year.
Taking Apple Inc. as an example, an investor holding Apple Inc. stocks told a First Financial reporter, "Apple Inc. has a large cash flow, the iPhone is currently the world's highest profit margin mobile phone product, and Apple Inc. also has a strong shareholder return plan, all of which have made the company's stock price strong. I am still optimistic about the rise of US technology stocks next year."
Some market insiders also pointed out that the investment logic of "fear of missing opportunities" (FOMO) in the wave of AI big models has driven the rise of US stocks this year. With the tightening of regulation on AI big models, some investors may find it difficult to monetize them.
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
猜你喜欢
- US retail giant Target's US stock rose over 10% in pre-market trading
- The main divergence in the technology sector of the US stock market at present
- Most popular Chinese concept stocks in the US stock market have fallen, while iQiyi has fallen by over 15%
- Vanguard Group warns: US tech stocks severely overvalued, people overly optimistic about AI prospects
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average hits a new high! US stock market rotation reappears: What should investors look for before September interest rate cut?
- Vaccine giant responds: nationwide suspension
- Iron ore giant, change of leadership
- After clocking in to work, I didn't come out again and was only discovered 4 days later! US trillion dollar banking giant, employee dies at workstation, police: investigating
- Cloud computing giant enters AI talent battle, acquires AI voice agency Tenyx
- Expectations of interest rate cuts may be greatly discounted! Bank of America warns: The biggest risk for US stock market this week will be on Friday
-
9月5日、蔚来は2024年第2四半期の財政報告を発表し、第2四半期の売上高は174億5000万元で、前年同期比98.9%増加した。今年第2四半期、蔚来は累計5万7400台の新車を納入した。 財報の発表当日、資本市場で前向きなフ ...
- 就放荡不羁就h
- 前天 12:39
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
小鵬自動車の新車種MONA M 03は肇慶基地で順調に量産され、工事中の瑞慶時代二工場は年内に操業を開始する予定で、広州データ取引所(肇慶)サービス基地は看板を掲げて運営している……実体経済であれ、デジタル経 ...
- slim
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
JPモルガン・チェース首席米経済学者マイケル・フェローリ(Michael Feroli)氏は最近、FRBは9月の会議で金利を50ベーシスポイント引き下げなければならないと述べた。 現地時間の木曜日(9月5日)、フェリリ氏はメ ...
- 不正经的工程师
- 前天 21:44
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
【クアルコムCEO:サムスンとグーグルと協力してハイブリッド現実眼鏡を開発中】クアルコムのクリスティア・アモン最高経営責任者は、クアルコムがサムスンとグーグルと協力してスマートフォンにつながるハイブリッ ...
- 寒郁轩良
- 前天 10:33
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏