On July 24th, Beijing time, Tesla released its Q2 2024 financial report. The key points of the financial report conference call are as follows:
Robotaxi will be released on October 10th and may be put into use by the end of this year or at the latest next year.
2. Musk: Tesla may obtain FSD licenses in other markets, such as Europe and China, by the end of this year.
Tesla produced over 410000 electric vehicles globally in the second quarter of 2024, with deliveries exceeding 444000 units, representing a month on month increase of 14.7%. The Shanghai Gigafactory continues to play an important role, with a delivery volume of 71007 vehicles in June and domestic sales increasing to 59261 vehicles. The sales performance in the first three weeks of July in China remained impressive, and July is expected to set a record for the highest domestic delivery volume in the first month of the quarter. The 5-year zero interest policy has been extended until August 31st.
Tesla CEO Musk believes that pure electric vehicles are the best choice for consumers, and as misunderstandings about range, charging, and service are gradually eliminated, pure electric vehicles will ultimately win the favor of all consumers.
5. A new version of fully autonomous driving capability (supervised version) has been launched, mainly relying on eye tracking software to monitor the driver's attention, and the driver can wear sunglasses without any problem.
In the second quarter, the production of 4680 batteries increased by 50% compared to the previous quarter, and costs continued to decline.
7. The energy storage business has grown rapidly, with the installed capacity of energy storage products reaching 9.4 gigawatt hours in the second quarter, a month on month increase of about 132%, setting a new record for single quarter installed capacity. Powerwall 3 has been consistently successful since its launch and is currently available in Canada, the United Kingdom, and Germany, in addition to the United States.
8. The second-generation humanoid robot Optimus is already handling battery related tasks in factories, and it is expected that thousands of Optimus will perform tasks at Tesla factories by the end of 2025. Delivery to external customers will begin in 2026.
Tesla will have enormous distributed computing power. Musk believes that the AI5 chip, which will be put into production by the end of next year, will make distributed computing power an obvious choice. Physically speaking, future vehicles will be equipped with AI5 and above versions of chips, and there may be billions of humanoid robots that can provide astonishing amounts of inference and computation when vehicles and robots are idle.
The southern expansion project of the Texas Gigafactory is about to be completed, which will accommodate Tesla's largest Nvidia H100 chip cluster to date.
11. The Cyber SUV became the best-selling model in the segmented market in the United States in the second quarter, with production increasing more than threefold compared to the previous quarter, and is expected to achieve profitability by the end of 2024.
The next generation of new models will start production as planned in the first half of 2025, using existing production lines, which will maximize the utilization of the existing capacity of nearly 3 million vehicles and achieve a 50% growth compared to 2023. Tesla will invest in new production lines in the future.
Tesla cars continue to sell well
In the second quarter of 2024, Tesla will form a hot selling trend worldwide.
In China, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the Model Y became the best-selling car in the country with over 207000 units sold in the first half of this year. In the second quarter, Model Y achieved a cumulative sales volume of over 80000 units in May and June, winning the national passenger car sales championship for two consecutive months; At the same time, the domestic registration volume of Model 3 exceeded 6000 units in a single week, breaking the sales record of the new model since its launch.
Meanwhile, Tesla continues to dominate sales charts in multiple countries around the world. Among the 15 European markets, Tesla became the best-selling electric vehicle brand in June, with a market share of up to 27%; In Norway, Tesla was the best-selling brand throughout the first half of the year, with cumulative sales 1.25 times that of the second ranked Toyota; In Germany, the Model Y remained the best-selling electric vehicle for the first four months of this year.
Tesla's autonomous driving and humanoid robot business has promising prospects
Looking ahead, Tesla will continue to make progress in software and hardware development in the fields of autonomous driving and autonomous taxi services. The second-generation humanoid robot Optimus is already handling battery tasks in factories, and it is expected that thousands of Optimus will perform tasks at Tesla factories by the end of next year, and then increase production in 2026 to begin deliveries to external customers.
For Tesla, Optimus robots are not only a showcase for technological innovation, but also an important part of future business models. Musk expects that Optimus will significantly improve the production efficiency of Tesla factories in the future and is expected to occupy a place in the global labor market. Not only that, the collaborative application scenarios of Tesla's "robot+electric vehicle" have opened up infinite possibilities. For example, humanoid robots can serve as home assistants, responsible for safety monitoring and home maintenance when car owners are out, and even independently complete electric vehicle charging and maintenance tasks, greatly improving user experience and convenience.
Musk boldly predicted at the 2024 shareholder meeting that the ratio of humanoid robots to humans in the future will exceed 1:1, and even reach an astonishing 2:1 ratio, indicating that the global humanoid robot market will have a huge capacity of 10 billion to 20 billion units, with an annual output of up to 1 billion units. If Tesla can occupy 10% of the market share, its annual production will reach 100 million Optimus units, and the cost of a single robot is expected to be controlled at around $10000. Calculated at a price of $20000, Tesla is expected to achieve a profit margin of $1 trillion per year.
The energy storage business is growing rapidly
In the energy storage business sector, Tesla has maintained strong growth momentum for multiple consecutive quarters. According to the financial report, the installed capacity of Tesla's energy storage products reached 9.4 gigawatt hours in the second quarter, a month on month increase of about 132%, once again setting a new record for single quarter installed capacity. Powerwall 3 has been consistently successful since its launch and is currently available in Canada, the United Kingdom, and Germany, in addition to the United States.
On July 18th, Tesla announced that by 2030, it will provide 15.3 GWh of Megapacks battery storage systems for the solar+energy storage project of American clean energy company Intersect Power, making it Tesla's largest Megapack contract to date. The signing of this agreement also makes Intersect Power poised to become one of the world's largest Megapack buyers and operators.
Tesla's Shanghai energy storage super factory officially started construction in May this year and is expected to start production in the first quarter of 2025. After production, the production of the super large electrochemical commercial energy storage system Megapack will reach 10000 units, with an energy storage capacity of nearly 40 gigawatt hours (1 gigawatt hour=1000 megawatt hours).
According to Bloomberg's forecast, by 2030, the global market demand for energy storage batteries will reach 1000 gigawatt hours, with a market size of $1.2 trillion. The start of construction of the Shanghai Energy Storage Super Factory indicates that Tesla will enter a new chapter in the layout improvement and integration innovation of multiple areas including electric vehicles, energy storage, and artificial intelligence.