Tesla's future is full of uncertainty. On the one hand, Republican candidate Trump, who is increasingly likely to enter the White House, strongly opposes the transition to electric vehicles; On the other hand, Tesla CEO Musk has a close relationship with Trump, implying more opportunities.
Wall Street is divided on Tesla's development under Trump, with some believing that Trump's victory is a huge negative for Tesla; But some analysts firmly believe that Tesla has more advantages than other electric vehicles and has the ability to once again clarify its leading position during the new US presidency.
The core controversy lies in Trump's plan to withdraw support for American electric vehicles, such as the $7500 tax credit policy during the Biden era. Analysts doubt whether this will have a negative impact on Tesla's performance.
On a larger scale, Trump's running mate Vance proposed last fall to cancel the existing $100 billion electric vehicle subsidies and replace them with tax credits for gasoline or diesel cars. Wall Street is evaluating whether this plan will have varying degrees of impact on different brands of electric vehicles, creating a potentially advantageous environment for Tesla.
Turbulent Future
Dan Ives, a well-known analyst at Wedbush, said that the reduction of subsidies for electric vehicles in the United States may help Tesla expand its advantages, establish a larger gap with competitors, and achieve technological leadership.
He emphasized that compared to many financially constrained emerging electric vehicle companies, Tesla's scale and financial reserves make it more viable in an unsubsidized environment, which is a huge opportunity for Tesla and Musk.
However, Guggenheim's Ron Jewsikow pointed out that tax credits are an important condition for increasing the affordability of Tesla electric vehicles, and Trump's cancellation of this subsidy is a negative factor for the entire industry.
He also mentioned the impact of Trump's high tariffs, especially the fact that many electric vehicles in the United States rely on Chinese made electric vehicle batteries. However, he also acknowledges that these upheavals may not necessarily cause Tesla to sink, but they will indeed lead to the bankruptcy of some other electric vehicle companies.
Royal Bank of Canada analyst Tom Narayan is also concerned about tariffs. He analyzed that Trump's erratic behavior during his last term has made the automotive industry uneasy, and many car companies believe that if Trump takes office, he will pose a challenge to the automotive business.
He also gave an example that in 2019, Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Canadian aluminum, which scared everyone, but he ultimately did not take action; Then he threatened to impose tariffs on the European Union. Narayan said that the automotive industry dislikes this kind of uncertainty.