After the quarterly delivery data exceeded expectations on Tuesday (2nd), Tesla's stock price rebounded. After a 10% increase on Tuesday, it closed up 6.6% again on Wednesday, achieving seven consecutive gains and closing at $246.39, a cumulative increase of over 70% from the low point at the end of April ($138.80).
In the first half of the year, Tesla's market value has evaporated by a total of 161.4 billion US dollars, becoming the S&P 500 index constituent stock with the largest decline in market value; On the second day of the second half of the year, Tesla released its delivery data for the second quarter. The data showed that Tesla delivered 444000 new cars in the second quarter, exceeding market expectations of 439300, recording a month on month increase from the first quarter and exceeding expectations for the first time in a year. On the same day, in addition to Tesla's stock rise, GraniteShares Fund's active ETF (AMEX), which is 1.25 times longer than Tesla, rose 12.72% daily.
After the data was released, Musk posted on X saying, "Once Tesla completely solves the autonomous driving problem and the robot Optimus starts mass production, anyone who still holds a short position will be eliminated.".
In fact, in addition to delivery data, Tesla's sales in the United States and China in the second quarter also exceeded expectations, driven by a series of positive sales policies such as low interest rates, price reductions, and zero down payments. In the Chinese market, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, Tesla's sales increased by another 7% month on month in June, reaching 59000 vehicles, following a 77% month on month increase in sales in May. Throughout the second quarter, Tesla's sales in China also recorded a month on month increase of 10.2%. Boosted by this, a group of analysts are once again optimistic about Tesla's stock price prospects, believing that there are signs that in the view of Tesla bulls, the electric vehicle industry may maintain a growth rate of 4.8%, better than previously expected, and Tesla is not just an electric vehicle company, but other businesses are more likely to bring it future growth points.
In a report released on Tuesday, the Citigroup analyst team wrote, "Compared to the negative sentiment of about 6 months in the past, we see continuous improvement in investor sentiment towards Tesla stocks and broader sentiment towards electric vehicles." This is indeed the case. After the release of the latest delivery data, option investors have set a new three-year high in their bullish sentiment towards Tesla, betting that Tesla's stock price will continue to rise on the basis of near a six-month high.
Dan Ives, Managing Director and Senior Stock Analyst at brokerage firm Wedbush Securities, also stated in his latest report that the latest delivery situation marks the end of Tesla's worst period, marking a "significant turning point" in the "Tesla bull market story.". He added that, in addition to the electric vehicle business, "the key to Tesla's future trend is also that Wall Street is gradually realizing that Tesla is the most undervalued artificial intelligence (AI) concept stock in the market. The company's Robotaxi Day on August 8th will pave the way for the future of fully autonomous driving and autonomous driving, becoming another catalyst for short-term stock price increases." Avis raised Tesla's target price for the year from $275 to $300, and in a bull market scenario, it is expected that Tesla's stock price target for next year will reach $400.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas called Tesla's delivery of data "the first surprise of the year" and emphasized that there was another highlight at the data launch, which was Tesla's quarterly deployment of energy storage business reaching a historic high. This business includes Megapacks, a super battery used for public utilities, which has grown even faster than the electric vehicle business, with a historic high profit margin. In addition to the unexpected delivery of new cars in the second quarter, inventory decreased by 33000 units, and Tesla's energy storage business also exceeded expectations, reminding investors that it is not just an automotive company. Based on this, Jonas gave Tesla an overweight rating and set a target of $310.
However, some analysts are still worried about the risk factors of Tesla, stressing that the competition in the electric vehicle industry faced by Tesla has not improved. For example, Tesla faces fierce competition from its Chinese counterparts overseas, and the demand for electric vehicles in the United States has also declined. In order to reduce costs, Tesla began planning to lay off more than 10% of its workforce earlier this year. At Tesla's shareholder meeting last month, Musk himself admitted that as the industry undergoes a period of transformation, there will still be difficulties in demand and sales in the near future.
Jessica Caldwell, the marketing director of market research firm Edmunds, said that Tesla is struggling with aging car models. "We see Tesla stimulating demand through price cuts and increased incentives, but it has not been very successful in the US market. Many of Tesla's competitors have also introduced incentives, and as price cuts and incentives become more frequent, Tesla's ability to attract consumer attention is becoming increasingly ineffective."
Dan Levy, a senior stock research analyst at Barclays, also commented on the day of the data release, saying, "There is still a risk of further price reductions in Tesla's stock price in the future, as Tesla's fundamentals will continue to face some problems as we are still facing a cold winter of demand for electric vehicles." Therefore, Levy gave Tesla a continued rating, but the target price given was only $180.