01 / World Bank: The global economy faces a “dual energy shock”
According to Agence France Presse (AFP), the World Bank had warned in a previous report that if the conflict between Israel and Hamas escalated throughout the Middle East, prices of oil and agricultural products could be hit.
The conflict between Israel and Hamas has been accompanied by reports that the crisis in Ukraine has put pressure on markets. The World Bank Chief Economist, Indemet Gil, warned that the crisis in Ukraine was “the biggest impact on commodity markets since the 1970s”.
According to the World Bank, many potential price increases will depend on changes in global oil prices and exports. In a climate of optimism, oil prices could rise by 3 to 13 per cent, maintaining between $93 and $102 per barrel. The worst case scenario is that oil prices will peak at between $140 and $157 and may exceed their historic peak since 2008.
02/U.S. Department of the Treasury downward revision to fourth quarter expected federal borrowing
As fiscal revenues were stronger than expected, the United States Department of the Treasury had recently reduced federal borrowing in the fourth quarter to a projected $776 billion in net borrowing in the fourth quarter of this year, compared to an estimated $852 billion at the end of July. Despite some downward adjustments, the new forecast still marks an all-time high in the fourth quarter.
Data recently released by the United States Department of the Treasury indicate that in the 2023 fiscal year of 30 September 2023, the federal Government ' s fiscal deficit was close to $1.7 trillion, an increase of 23 per cent over the previous fiscal year and the largest annual deficit since 2021, when the new coronary outbreak led to a $2.78 trillion deficit.
03/Germany 3rd quarter GDP ring contraction
Data recently released by the German Federal Statistical Office indicate that, according to preliminary estimates, after price, season and workday adjustments, Germany ' s share of gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 0.1 per cent in the third quarter of this year, mainly because of lower household expenditure. High inflation is putting pressure on German consumers, and many are reducing consumption spending.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that Germany is the only major economy in recession this year, and that its long-term economic prospects are being questioned. According to analysts, the main reason for the stagnation in economic growth in Germany is cyclical and structural, which will not disappear in the short term, and the risk of continued stagnation remains high.
04 / / Foreign investors quickly sell Indian stocks
According to Bloomberg, foreign investors are rapidly reducing their stock holdings in India because of their unease about market prospects. Data show that on 26 October alone, the Overseas Fund sold $768.4 million in local Indian equities, the largest single-day net outflow since June 2022. As of the week of 26 October, overseas funds had drawn a total of $1.2 billion from the Indian stock market, the largest single-week withdrawal since the beginning of February this year.
According to the analysis, geopolitical tensions and unsatisfactory economic data in India in the second quarter had led investors to worry about the country ' s market prospects, leading to sales. India ' s 2024 general election was also a major risk, and if the ruling party failed to consolidate its power, the Indian stock market would collapse.
05 / / Central Bank of Japan again adjusts large-scale monetary easing
According to JCC, the Central Bank of Japan decided at a monetary policy meeting on 31 October to re-align the current large-scale monetary easing policy. The last adjustment was in July.
The Central Bank of Japan has again revised its policy on bond yield control (YCC) to redefine 1.0 per cent as a “ceiling” with floating space, rather than a strict ceiling. Officials felt that there was a need to improve the flexibility of the YCC policy and that the side effects would increase if the yield ceiling remained rigid.
The market believes that the policy adjustment of the Central Bank of Japan this time is more dove than expected and that the yen will remain under pressure. After the resolution was published, the United States dollar rose against the Japanese yen, again at the 150-point.
06 / Korea will scrutinize naked sales by international investment banks
On Tuesday, the Korea Financial Regulatory Authority indicated that all international investment banks operating in the country would be inspected to ascertain whether they had acted as stock sellers.
The Korea Financial Supervisory Authority (FSS) indicated that a Special Investigation Unit would be established for this purpose, comprising 20 officers of the Financial Supervisory Authority. Many of them have extensive investigative experience and are fluent in English.
Earlier this month, the Korea Financial Supervisory Authority proposed to impose a record fine on two international investment companies on the grounds that they “frequently and intentionally” engaged in naked sales.
07 / Tesla stock price dropped $200
On Monday, local time, Tesla stock prices fell by 4.81 per cent, breaking $200, the lowest fare since the end of May, and were reported at $197.36 per share.
Since the release of the Tesla Quarterly on 18 October, there has been a significant decline in the price of the stock, as neither the third quarter received nor the net profit was in line with market expectations. In the nine trading days that followed, Tesla ' s stock prices fell by about 23 per cent, evaporating over $18.27 billion (approximately 1.3 trillion yuan yuan), reducing Mask ' s wealth by nearly $41 billion.
08 / United States Automotive Workers End Six Week Strikes: Industrial Loss Nearly US$ 10 billion
On 30 October, local time, the United States Federation of Automotive Workers (UAW) and General Motors entered into a temporary contractual agreement, including a 25 per cent salary increase for employees over the next four-year contract period, the elimination of multiple salary scales and the inclusion of employees from two battery plants in the interim agreement. General purpose car employees will return to work during the approval of the agreement.
This temporary agreement put an end to a six-week car workers strike. The American Automotive Triple General, Ford, Stellantis company, which features the Snow Dragon parent, eventually provided a record increase for workers.
The troika suffered huge losses from the strike and faced high costs. Data recently released by the Anderson Economic Group, the research agency, indicate that the strike had caused some $9.3 billion in losses to the United States automobile industry.
This is from the China Bank Insurance Report.